2026 IIHF Men’s World Championship Odds, Prediction: Italy vs. Canada

Canada continues group play at the 2026 IIHF World Championship in Switzerland on Saturday morning against Italy.

Team Canada opened their tournament with a 5-3 win on Friday in a heavyweight battle against arguably their toughest Group B opponent, Sweden.

This will be Italy’s tournament opener and first game in the top division of the World Championship since 2022.

Canada opened as a massive -10,000 moneyline favourite on the World Championship odds, with the puckline set at -5.5 and the total pegged at 7.0.

Italy vs. Canada men’s hockey world championship betting odds

These teams obviously have different histories in this tournament. While Canada has won the most total medals and gold medals of any country, Italy hasn’t regularly appeared in the top division.

The Italians last played in the highest division of the tournament in 2022 when they finished 15th of 16 teams and were relegated along with Great Britain. Italy’s best World Championship finish was fourth place, all the way back in 1953.

Across all competitions, these national teams have met 37 times. Canada has 32 wins, Italy has three wins and there were two draws. There is a +155 goal differential favouring Team Canada in that span.

Canada and Italy were also in the same group in 2022, with the Canadians winning 6-1. Dylan Cozens, Zach Whitecloud and Dawson Mercer played in 2022 and are on this year’s team. Mercer had two assists against Italy in 2022.

The teams sit at the opposite end of the World Championship futures board. Canada is a -130 favourite to win gold, while Italy has the third-longest odds at +90,000.

Team Italy

This will be Italy’s second top level international tournament for the men’s team this year after they hosted the 2026 winter Olympics in Milan. They were one of two winless teams in the tournament and technically finished last although they were more competitive than their record indicated. Italy lost 5-2 to Sweden and 3-2 to Slovakia before an 11-0 blowout loss against a desperate Team Finland.

The Italians will once again be led by Finnish coach Jukka Jalonen, who guided Team Finland to three World Championship gold medals (2011, 2019, 2022) and one Olympic gold (2022). Returnees from the Olympic team include goaltender Davide Fadani along with four defencemen. There are no NHL players on the roster.

Team Canada

It came down to the wire for Canada against Sweden on Friday. The Canadians led 2-0 after the first period and 3-2 late in the second, but entered the third tied at three. However, Connor Brown scored the eventual game-winner 3:31 into the final frame.

John Tavares, Ryan O’Reilly, Dylan Holloway and Dylan Cozens also scored for Canada. Porter Martone, Darnell Nurse and Fraser Minten each had two assists. Canada finished 2-for-5 on the power play and 2-for-3 on the penalty kill.

Jet Greaves made 25 stops against Sweden, so we should see either Cam Talbot or Jack Ivankovic against Italy. Talbot was the starting goaltender when Canada won gold at the 2016 Wold Championship, setting a tournament record with four shutouts.