Why Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa Deserves Top Odds for MVP

Expectations were raised in Miami when the 2023 regular season commenced. It could be argued that last year’s Dolphins were derailed because of severe injuries suffered by their quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa. A healthy Tagovailoa, equipped with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert and the like would guide the Dolphins to the sort of success fans had dreamed of for years.

Trough six weeks, things are looking good. So good, in fact, that the Miami gunslinger is co-leading the odds for league MVP at +350 alongside Patrick Mahomes. Tagovailoa is fully deserving of the plaudits and we’ll discuss why below.

Check out our NFL odds for plenty of football action.

NFL MVP is a Quarterback-Driven Award

Like it or loath it, the MVP award is a quarterback-driven honour. Some non-QBs have been bestowed the title, but it hasn’t happened often. The last time a player other than a signal caller took home the prize was in 2012 when Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson shined brightest.

Even Los Angeles Rams WR Cooper Kupp, who had an extraordinary 2021 as a triple crown winner, could not prevent Aaron Rodgers from getting his hands on the award.

So right off the bat, we already know we’ll be dealing with Tagovailoa, Mahomes, Brock Purdy (+1000), Josh Allen (+700), Jalen Hurts (+800) and company under centre.

The highest non-QB on the list as of Monday, October 16 is San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey at +2000. It’s not even close.

Tua Tagovailoa’s Year in Numbers

In the simplest terms, Tagaovailoa is great great football. Through six weeks, the Dolphins quarterback leads the NFL in total passing yards (1,876), is second in completion percentage (71.4) among QBs who have played almost every week, first in yards per completion (9.5), first in yards per game (312.7), and tied for first in TDs (14).

To cap it off, Miami is winning. At 5-1, they look like one of the best teams in the NFL. The competition hasn’t been too stiff at times, but as the old expression goes, a team can only play who is in front of them. It’s not as if the Dolphins are defeating the Panthers and the Giants with field goals in overtime. They’re buzz-sawing them. Only the Bills (who defeated Miami) and the 49ers have superior point differentials.

It feels as if this is the season when all the potential that’s been talked about for two years (2021 and 2022) is finally flourishing. The crescendo of team success will boost his odds as well. That he was okay if unspectacular in 2021 and that we saw what could have been a wonderful 2022 abbreviated due to injuries are in fact elements that can encourage voters to vouch for Tagovailoa should he remain healthy and keep this furious pace.

“Oh, he’s improved from two seasons ago.”

“Oh, this is who he is when he’s healthy.”

The numbers are critical, but those two thoughts are also significant factors in the MVP conversation.

What about Tua’s Running Mate, WR Tyreek Hill?

That’s a good question. Hill lags far behind at +5000. This is debatable but perhaps the single biggest reason he’s so far behind is because he left Kansas City for Miami.

Yes, the reason Hill, who has blown defences out of the water this season, is a +5000, is because of a decision he made two winters ago. Why? Because Patrick Mahomes went on to win an MVP and a Super Bowl the very next year. Hill is a special talent and a very strong case can be made that he’s the most dangerous wide receiver in the NFL today and one of the most dangerous of all time, but Mahomes proved he can be the best without him. If Mahomes didn’t need Hill to be great, to an extent the same argument can be made in Tagovailoa’s favour.

Yes, Hill is bolstering his quarterback’s numbers, but lest it be forgotten Miami is a great running team as well. They lead the NFL with 181.8 yards on the ground per game and yet the QB is still putting up sensational figures. Hill is important to the club’s success, but they’re much more well-rounded than just his amazing skill set and, at the end of the day, the wide receiver still needs a good quarterback to throw him the ball.

It’s a Regular Season Award

If there are any readers who question Tagovailoa’s and the Miami Dolphins’ ability to step up in the postseason, there’s no need to.

Let’s add clarity to that point. Miami Dolphins fans can worry about that, as they should. The club’s only true test this season was an unmitigated disaster in Buffalo in Week 4. Miami has another one this Sunday night when they visit the Philadelphia Eagles.

But as far as the MVP voting is concerned, it’s a regular season award. The knock on Aaron Rodgers is that he only ever won and played in a single Super Bowl with the Packers. It didn’t stop him from winning back-to-back MVP awards shortly before he left for the Jets. Some fans may not like it, but that’s the reality of the situation. When it comes to this honour, there is no “but can he do that in the playoffs?” Maybe there should be, but that’s another discussion for another time.