Vikings vs. Packers Point Spread: NFL Week 12 Odds, Prediction
Minnesota is not where it wanted or expected to be going into the season, occupying last place in the division at 4-6. Green Bay is 6-3-1, good for second place in the NFC North behind Chicago.
The Vikings have won three of the last four head-to-head encounters dating back to the 2023 campaign. Home-field advantage has not made much of a difference over the past decade. These two rivals have split the last six games in Green Bay at three wins apiece and the last 12 overall at 6-6.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Neither team has been good against the spread in recent weeks. Minnesota is 1-3 ATS in its last four overall; Green Bay is 1-7 ATS in its latest eight games and 0-3 ATS in its previous three at Lambeau Field. The Vikings are 6-3 ATS in the last nine head-to-head matchups. As for the Over/Under, the Over is 6-2 in the Vikings’ last eight overall and has cashed in five straight games. For Green Bay, the Over is 4-2-1 in the Packers’ last seven, and 3-0 in the last three head-to-head meetings between these squads.
In addition to the more traditional NFL lines, the first-quarter spread is -0.5 in the Packers’ favour and the first-half spread is -3.5. The first-quarter Over/Under is 7.5; the first-half Over/Under is 20.5.
Minnesota Vikings
At 4-5 heading into Week 11 and going up against division-leading Chicago, Minnesota faced what was pretty much a must-win situation. Instead of rising to the occasion, head coach Kevin O’Connell’s crew floundered to a 19-17 loss. It marked the second consecutive contest in which the Vikings were held below the 20-point mark. A lot of their offensive struggles can be pinned on quarterback J.J. McCarthy, whose NFL development has been slow.
The 2024 first-round draft pick missed all of last year and has missed half of his team’s 10 games this season. McCarthy has thrown more interceptions (eight) than touchdown passes (six) while completing an anemic 52.9% of his attempts. This matchup will be a particularly tough one for McCarthy because Green Bay is No. 1 in the entire NFL in yards per pass attempt allowed (6.0).
Green Bay Packers
Not unlike Minnesota, Green Bay also inspires little confidence from an offensive standpoint. Head coach Matt LaFleur’s squad is averaging 15.7 points per game over the past three weeks. Running back Josh Jacobs suffered a knee contusion during last weekend’s victory over the Giants and is questionable for Sunday. Jacobs avoided major structural damage and will not be placed on injured reserve, but it seems likely that he will miss at least one week. RB Emanuel Wilson, undrafted out of Fort Valley State in 2023, would be RB1 if Jacobs is unable to suit up.
Fortunately for the Packers, their defence has been awesome. Led by newcomer Micah Parsons, Green Bay ranks No. 6 in total defence, No. 7 in scoring, No. 3 against the run, and No. 7 against the pass. It has given up 15.3 PPG over the past three outings.
NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Vikings vs. Packers?
This is a horrible matchup on paper for a laboring Minnesota offence against a red-hot Green Bay defence. Going on the road into hostile Lambeau Field certainly won’t help matters for the visitors. Look for the home team to ride its defense to a seventh victory this season. Let’s go with Packers 23, Vikings 16.
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