Houston had a statement win on Monday Night Football, blowing out the Cowboys 34-10 in Dallas. At 7-4, the Texans look like they’ll cruise to a second straight divisional crown.

It’s a much different story in Tennessee after they fell to 2-8 on the year with a 23-13 home loss against Minnesota in Week 11. The Titans are all but certain to miss the playoffs for a third consecutive year.

Houston is an 8.5-point favourite to win on the NFL odds, with the total set at 41.5.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Texans won both meetings last year. The first game was a tight 19-16 overtime affair, but Houston blew out Tennessee 26-3 just two weeks later. Keep in mind, the last four games between these teams have played the Under, while the Texans have gone 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 head-to-heads.

If you’ve been fading the Titans this season you’re likely very happy. If you’ve backed Tennessee then you’re likely pulling out your hair as they have been the worst cover option in the NFL at just 1-9 ATS. On the flip side, Houston is a more respectable 5-5-1 ATS, covering in five of their last seven games.

Tennessee Titans

Will Levis threw the longest TD pass in the NFL this season, 98 yards to Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, but it proved to be his only scoring play of the day last week. Levis finished 17-of-31 for 295 yards, one TD and one interception while rushing for a team-high 18 yards. Levis was sacked five times on the day, while Westbrook-Ikhine finished with 117 yards and one TD on two receptions.

Clearly the rushing attack struggled last week. The team finished with just 33 yards on 33 carries and now enter Week 12 ranked in the bottom half of the league in average rushing yards per game and rushing TDs. That’s a recipe for disaster against a Texans rush-defence that ranks top-10 in the NFL.

Houston Texans

Running back Joe Mixon had himself a game last week, rushing for 109 yards and three TDs, while adding another 44 receiving yards on two catches. Mixon has hit 100-rushing yards in six of eight games this season and he’s been elite since returning from an ankle injury, rushing for 580 yards and nine TDs over his last six games.

Not to be overlooked is C.J. Stroud, who completed 67.6 per cent of his passes last week for 257 yards and an interception, although he failed to throw for a TD. You can likely expect more from Stroud with Nico Collins back in the mix. Collins, who led the NFL in receiving before he missed five games with a hamstring injury, returned last week with a team-high 54 receiving yards.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Titans vs. Texans?