The Titans clinched the AFC South title with last weekend’s 34-3 rout of the Miami Dolphins, and can lock up the AFC’s top seed with a win over Houston, or a loss by Kansas City in its date with Denver. The Texans return home to close out a forgettable campaign after suffering a 23-7 loss in San Francisco last weekend, which put the brakes on the team’s first two-game win streak since November 2020.

The Titans quickly faded after opening as 11-point favourites, dipping to -10. However, they have since rebound to their present position as 10.5-point chalk while attracting 62% of the betting action. The point total has held steady at 43. However, the OVER has attracted the support of 85% of sports bettors in midweek wagering.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Sunday afternoon’s matchup at NRG Stadium marks the second meeting of the season between these AFC South rivals. The Texans handed the Titans a stunning 22-13 defeat when they visited Tennessee in Week 11. That snapped a three-game head-to-head losing streak during which they surrendered over 39 points per game.

Overall, the Houston defence ranks 27^th in the NFL, and has surrendered an average of 31 points during a 1-2 run at home. Despite their defensive woes, the Texans area respectable 4-4 against the spread at home this season. The Titans defence turned in another stellar performance in last week’s win over Miami, and has now limited opponents to just 9.8 points per game during a 3-1 straight up run. Tennessee has been particularly stingy on home turf, giving up just 11 points per game during a 5-1 run. In addition to powering a 6-2 against the spread run on home turf, the Titans’ have seen the UNDER go 7-3 over their past 10 contests.

Tennessee Titans

The big news in Titans camp this week is the imminent return of two of the team’s most important offensive weapons. Derrick Henry returned to practice this week after missing the past eight games with a foot injury. Henry was joined by receiver Julio Jones, who was activated from the COVID list this week, but remained limited in practice due to a nagging hamstring injury. It remains unclear if Henry will be inserted into Sunday’s lineup. However, D’Onta Foreman has stepped up in Henry’s absence, rushing for three scores and topping 100 rushing yards on three occasions over his past five appearances.

Houston Texans

Rookie quarterback Davis Mills took a step back in last weekend’s loss in San Francisco. Effectively contained by a Niners defence that sacked him three times, Mills racked up just 163 passing yards while tossing for one score and once pick. Mills has shown promise in his trial by fire, connecting on eight scoring passes against three picks over his past six appearances.

However, it remains to be seen how much help he gets against a Titans defence that has piled up 12 sacks and seven interceptions over their past four games.

Who Will Win Titans vs. Texans?