Texans vs. Titans Point Spread: NFL Week 11 Odds, Prediction
The Week 11 schedule in the 2025 NFL season includes an AFC South showdown between the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans. Something has to give on Sunday, because Houston is terrible on the road (1-3) and Tennessee is hopeless at home (0-4). It has been a disappointing year all around for both teams, as the Texans are 4-5 overall and the Titans come in with a 1-8 record.
The head-to-head series could not be any closer, as Tennessee leads it 24-23. Unsurprisingly, however, the Texans have had the upper hand in recent years. Dating back to December of 2022, they have won five of the last six meetings.
Houston is a 6.5-point favourite to win on the NFL odds, with the total set at 37.5.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The Texans are 4-2 ATS in their six overall and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head meetings. The Titans are 2-6 ATS in their last eight outings and a ridiculous 1-11 ATS in their last 12 home games dating back to the start of last season. As for the over/under, the over is 3-1-1 in Houston’s last five overall. It is also 6-2 in the Titans’ last eight and 6-0 in their last six home contests.
In addition to the more traditional lines, the first-quarter spread is -0.5 in the Texans’ favour and the first-half spread is -3.5. The first-quarter over/under is 7.5; the first-half over/under is 19.5.
Houston Texans
Quarterback CJ Stroud left a Week 9 loss to Denver with a concussion and he did not play during a win over Jacksonville this past Sunday. Stroud remains in the NFL’s concussion protocol, so he is questionable to take the field against Tennessee. Current indications are that backup Davis Mills will make his second start and fourth appearance of the season. The 27-year-old has played in 41 games throughout his career, completing 62.2 per cent of his passes with 37 touchdowns and 26 interceptions. Mills was 27-of-45 for 292 yards with two TDs and one INT during last weekend’s dramatic comeback against the Jaguars.
Although the Texans struggle to run the ball, they may be able to do it in this particular matchup. The Titans are actually somewhat decent against the pass, but they have allowed 141.3 rushing yards per game, 4.8 yards per carry and 15 rushing touchdowns.
Tennessee Titans
Earlier this season, Tennessee rookie QB Cam Ward infamously admitted how bad his team is – in slightly more descriptive terms, of course – and he is not wrong. The Titans’ 1-8 record is the worst in the NFL. Their only win has come via a 22-21 decision against Arizona, and that was only because the Cardinals dropped a ball in front of the goal line for a touchback instead of a touchdown and then fumbled after making an interception – leading to a Titans recovery for a TD.
At no point in the season has Tennessee been worse than it was against none other than Houston in Week 4. The Texans rolled 26-0 at home, limiting the Titans to an anemic 93 passing yards and 82 on the ground.
NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Texans vs. Titans?
Ward has continued to struggle since that disastrous performance against the Texans. The No. 1 overall pick has thrown more interceptions (six) than touchdowns (five) and is completing just 57.6 percent of his attempts. Tennessee probably can’t do any worse than it did against Houston in Week 4, but the visitors are almost certainly in line for another loss. Let’s go with Texans 24, Jaguars 16.
h
HOU
TEN