Texans vs. Falcons Point Spread: NFL Week 5 Odds, Prediction
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Edgar Chaput
It’s very early in 2023, but things are looking decent for the Houston Texans, who are a surprising 2-2 club if there ever was one. The 30-6 beatdown of the Steelers last Sunday could be viewed as a coming out party for this young squad. The Atlanta Falcons are the victims of back-to-back defeats. The flight home from London must have been sullen given the mediocre 23-7 loss to Jacksonville.
Despite the recent trends, the NFL odds deem the host Falcons as -1.5 favourites.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
As is often the case with matches involving inter-conference foes, Houston and Atlanta don’t often meet. The franchises have shared the spoils evenly over the last four contests that date back to 2007. The home side won every game, with the most recent two being big-time blowouts (Texans winning 53-32 in 2019 and the Falcons taking the 2015 match 48-21).
Mirroring their trajectory in the outright win-loss department, the Texans have covered their last two spreads to improve the season tally to 2-2. Moreover, their two successful covers happened as they were pinned as underdogs, so this week’s situation isn’t new to them.
Atlanta hasn’t been as fortunate with spreads, sporting a 1-3 record up until now. They opened the season with a win by swatting away a young Panthers squad, but have since failed thrice in a row. More importantly, even as underdogs, they lost the last two matches by a lot more points than the buffer the oddsmakers awarded them.
Houston Texans
Are we witnessing a new era of Texans football blossom before our eyes? Quite possibly, although many teams start a campaign positively, only to flounder down the stretch. Even if Houston doesn’t finish with a mesmerizing record, they look good, especially last week at home to the Steelers.
The C.J. Stroud-Nico Collins relationship is turning into a beautiful thing. More than once this season, Stroud has depended on Collins for big connections, and Week 4 was no exception, with the WR corralling seven passes for 11168 yards and two majors. His second touchdown was brilliant icing on a Sunday cake. Houston made mincemeat of a Pittsburgh defence (451 total yards, 24 first downs) many touted after a big win in Las Vegas the week before. Linebacker Christian Harris didn’t earn any of the team’s three sacks but was a monster unto himself, totalling 13 tackles. The entire Texans defensive unit mustered seven tackles for losses. Don’t look now, but Stroud is fourth in the NFL in yards (1,212).
LBs Laremy Tunsil and Denzel Perryman are both questionable.
Atlanta Falcons
Just as fans and pundits are enjoying C.J. Stroud demonstrating why Houston may have made the correct choice by drafting him, question marks surrounded Falcons coach Arthur Smith and his QB, Desmond Ridder.
Two weeks in a row have shown no signs of progression, with Atlanta’s passing attack essentially getting lost in the London fog versus Jacksonville last week with the Falcons losing 23-7. For every decent play, there are multiple checkdown passes or missed opportunities. His opposite number Trevor Lawrence didn’t even have a great day (again) yet Ridder still looked clearly inferior. Falcons faithful can at least rest assured that RB Bijan Robinson is proving to be a marvellous draft choice (14 carries, 105 yards). On the defensive side of the ball, the team pressured the Jaguars QB with relative efficiency, getting four sacks for 31 yards lost. It increased their season tally to only five, but at least they’re getting somewhere.
WR Josh Ali is on IR.
HOU
ATL