Texans vs. Colts Point Spread: NFL Week 13 Odds, Prediction
A crucial AFC South matchup takes place at Lucas Oil Stadium this weekend as the Indianapolis Colts host the Houston Texans at 1:00 PM ET. The Colts, at 8-3, lead the 6-5 Texans by two games, with the 7-4 Jacksonville Jaguars sitting between them. Houston gained a game last week after knocking off Buffalo 23-19 on Thursday Night Football. The Texans’ No. 1 defence harassed reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen all night with eight sacks and two interceptions to earn the team’s third straight win.
Meanwhile, Indianapolis blew a huge opportunity to both stay two games up in the division and get a statement win in the conference when it led by 11 points in the fourth quarter at Kansas City and fell to the Chiefs in overtime, 23-20.
The return of Houston quarterback CJ Stroud, who’s missed three games with a concussion, is still in doubt for Sunday.
The Week 13 NFL odds board has the Colts set as 4.5-point favourites.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Houston has won three straight and four of its last five games. The Texans are 1-4 against the spread on the road. They have won three straight against the Colts and are 4-1 straight up in their last five games in Indianapolis.
The Colts are 6-0 straight up and 4-2 against the spread at home. Indy has won eight straight at Lucas Oil Stadium dating to last season. The Texans have played to the under four times in the past five games, while the Colts have played to the over in four of their last six contests.
Standout Indianapolis running back Jonathan Taylor, who rushed 16 times for 58 yards against Kansas City, is +100 to rush fewer than 19.5 times on Sunday. Taylor has only rushed 20 or more times in a game three times this season. The odds of him hitting that number against the NFL’s fourth-ranked rushing defence are not great.
Houston Texans
Houston has stormed back from an 0-3 start, which is all the more miraculous considering Davis Mills has been under centre the last three games. Mills is 3-0 as a starter after replacing Stroud in the first half of an 18-15 loss against Denver in Week 9.
Mills has thrown five touchdowns to just one interception while averaging 239.7 yards passing during the streak, which has placed the Texans back in the playoff picture.
A defence allowing just 16.5 points a game doesn’t hurt either. Danielle Hunter (11 sacks) and Will Anderson Jr. (10.5 sacks) are fearsome up front, with talent and violence present at all three levels.
Indianapolis Colts
The second-half playcalling and performance in the loss to the Chiefs are alarming. The team abandoned Taylor, who had 286 yards and three touchdowns just the week before.
Instead, relying solely on Daniel Jones, the team had four consecutive three-and-outs, totalling just five first downs in the second half and overtime. Jones has been a great story all season, but he threw for a season-low 181 yards, going just 8-for-18 for 83 yards after halftime.
Jones and the Colts wilted on the national stage against the Chiefs. Houston smells blood and is coming for them.
Who Will Win Texans vs. Colts?
Indy is ripe for the taking. The Texans have only won one game away from home, but Indy’s 6-0 home record is flawed. The only marquee opponent the Colts have beaten at Lucas Oil is Denver, and that came by one point back in Week 2.
Look for the Colts to hold on at home, but for the Texans to cover, with a final of 21-17 in Indianapolis’ favour possible.
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