With playoff hopes already dwindling for both teams, Sunday’s AFC South encounter between the Houston Texans and the Indianapolis Colts takes on added importance as they square off at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts are coming off a disheartening 20-16 road loss to the defending Super Bowl-champion Philadelphia Eagles that dropped them to 1-2 – but they’re in better shape than the Texans, who fell to 0-3 with a 27-22 setback to the New York Giants.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Colts might not be as frequent a home favourite as most NFL teams, but they come through when they are, having gone 5-2 ATS in their past seven games when giving points at Lucas Oil. That includes a 22-13 home win over Houston last Dec. 31 as a 5.5-point fave. And that trend bodes well for the Colts as they prepare to face a Texans side that has lost nine in a row away from Houston, and has failed to cover in five of its past six games as a road ‘dog.

Indy has another solid trend going in its home stadium, this one from a totals perspective. The Colts have cashed the under in 11 of their previous 14 home games, due in large part to long-time offensive struggles. Indianapolis hasn’t scored more than 23 points in any of its previous six home games, going 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS over that stretch. Houston looks ready to accommodate that hot streak, having gone 1-5-1 O/U in its last seven road games.

Houston Texans

If the Texans hope to break into the win column this weekend, producing more first-half offence might be a good place to start. Houston comes into the game having scored just 19 first-half points through its first three games – fifth-fewest in the league. The Texans’ constant early-game struggles, combined with the Colts’ lethargic offensive showings at home, should put the under on the first-half total squarely in play Sunday afternoon.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have looked positively ordinary on offence through three games, and there are questions as to whether Andrew Luck can lead them out of their doldrums. Luck doesn’t appear either willing or able to throw the deep ball anymore – his 5.34 yards per pass attempts ranks second last among qualifying starting quarterbacks. Given how Houston was able to pressure Giants quarterback Eli Manning last week, the under on the Colts’ team total is a solid option.

Texans vs. Colts Prediction