The Houston Texans can clinch last place in the overall NFL standings and the right to make the first pick at the 2023 NFL Draft when they hit the road to face the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday in season-ending NFL Week 18 action. The Texans saw their late-season rally halted by last week’s crushing 31-3 loss in Jacksonville, and can clinch a last-place finish with either a loss to the Colts or Chicago win the Bears’ date with Minnesota. The Colts return riding a six-game losing streak, capped by last week’s lopsided 38-10 road loss to the New York Giants. 

The Colts are unchanged since opening as 2.5-point favourites, but with the backing of 67% of sports bettors, Indy has vaulted to -119 chalk to cover the spread. After opening at 39, there was plenty of movement on the total before it settles at 38, with a slim 55% majority of the betting action supporting the UNDER.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Sunday afternoon’s matchup at Lucas Oil Stadium marks the second and final meeting of the season between these AFC South divisional rivals. These teams were forced to settle for a 20-20 tie when they met in Houston in Week 1, The Colts have held the upper hand overall in head-to-head action, claiming the win in nine of 12 dates with the Texans, including a steady 4-1 run on home turf over that stretch. Low scoring has been commonplace in recent clashes. The total has topped 40 just once during a 6-0 run for the OVER, which has also paid out in 12 of 13 matchups between these teams in Indianapolis since 2008.

Houston Texans

After enjoying an impressive three-game run during which they forced both Dallas and Kansas City to rally late to claim victory before knocking off the injury-hobbled Tennessee Titans in Week 16, the Texans came crashing back to Earth last weekend with a rare loss in Jacksonville. The resilience that marked the Texans’ late-season surge escaped them as the Jaguars rolled to a 21-0 lead at the half. And things got no better after recess, with the Houston offense managing to move the ball inside the Jags 40-yard line just once. Quarterback Davis Mills compiled just 202 passing yards and no scores on the day, and was also the top rusher for a feeble Texans ground game that generated just 84 yards. The Texans did manage to deny Trevor Lawrence a scoring pass while limited Jacksonville’s rising star pivot to just 152 passing yards. Whoever, they had little response for a productive Jags ground game that generated 169 rushing yards and three scoring runs.

Indianapolis Colts

With Nick Foles struggling with a rib injury that has kept him out of practice this week, the Colts will once again turn to Sam Ehlinger to guide the Indy offence on Sunday in what will be the fourth change under center made by the team so far this season. Ehlinger made the first two starts of his NFL career two months ago after veteran Matt Ryan got the hook after leading the team to a middling 3-3-1 start. Ehlinger looked lost at times in his first two outings, failing to find the end zone while getting sacked 11 times in losses to Washington and New England, but fared slightly better in last weekend’s relief assignment, connecting for 60 yards and his first career scoring pass. However, this team’s injury woes go far deeper than Foles. In addition to missing Foles and star rusher Jonathan Taylor, the status of both cornerback Stephon Gilmore and tight end Kylen Granson remains uncertain after both sat out practice on Wednesday. 

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Texans vs. Colts?