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Andrew Rogers
Texans vs. Bills Point Spread: NFL Week 4 Odds, Prediction
The Bills are massive favourites as they look to build on back-to-back drubbings of the Miami Dolphins and Washington Football team. The Texans did well to open the regular season with a win over Jacksonville but have crashed back to reality since, coming off back-to-back double-digit losses to Cleveland and Carolina.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Certain ATS trends don’t work so well with a spread this large; for example, the Bills have been a favourite of 16+ points just once since 1992. Of greater utility is the fact that Buffalo is an impressive 6-2 ATS in its past six home games, averaging a whopping 32 points per game over that stretch. Houston is on a 4-2 ATS run since the end of the 2020 season, and is 4-1 against the spread in its past five on the road following an 0-5-1 ATS away streak.
Staggeringly, nearly two-thirds of Sports Interaction bettors are taking the Bills minus all those points. And the crowd is even more aligned when it comes to the total, with 81 percent of public bets on the O47 (-110). The Bills have finished below the number in eight of their last 12 home games against AFC opponents, with four of those games finishing south of the 40-point plateau. Houston, on the other hand, is 7-3 O/U in its last 10 games away from NRG Stadium.
Houston Texans
More than a few pundits tabbed the Texans to finish at or near the bottom of the NFL standings – and their play the last two games certainly validates those predictions. The Texans are at just 220 passing yards per game so far – and in a league where air attacks rule the day, that isn’t going to cut it. The run game has also been a work in progress, with Houston coming into the weekend averaging just 3.3 yards per carry on 86 attempts.
Buffalo Bills
The Texans might learn something from their visit to Buffalo this week – at least, when it comes to operating a high-powered pass offence. The Bills have racked up seven passing touchdowns through the first three games, with five different players hauling in at least one receiving TD. And the run game has also been solid (if unspectacular), averaging 4.3 yards per tote with four scores. Devin Singletary leads the Buffalo backfield in attempts (35) and yards (180).
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