NFL
Jordan Ramsay
February 7, 2024

Super Bowl 58 Betting Odds: Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy are the favourites to win MVP

The odds are out for Super Bowl 58 and to no one’s surprise the quarterbacks are favoured to win MVP as Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes sits at +135 to win the award and San Francisco’s Brock Purdy sits at +230.

Will Mahomes become the first player to win back-to-back Super Bowl MVPs since Terry Bradshaw in Super Bowl 13 and 14, or will another candidate jump out and steal the spotlight? Let’s take a look at some Super Bowl 58 MVP candidates.

Super Bowl 58 MVP odds

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Super Bowl 58 MVP best bet: Patrick Mahomes (+135)

Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs have burned bettors who haven’t believed in them this year and it’s hard to justify going against them in the Super Bowl. All Mahomes and co. seem to do is find a way to win in the biggest games and there’s no game bigger in North American sports than the Super Bowl.

Mahomes looked great in the AFC Championship Game, playing mistake-free football while throwing for 241 yards and a touchdown. The Texas Tech product’s connection with future Hall of Fame tight end Travis Kelce looked especially dangerous as Mahomes hit Kelce 11 times for 116 yards and a touchdown. The performance just added to the dominance Mahomes has displayed in the playoffs in recent years as he has completed 70 per cent of his passes while throwing for 11 TDs and no interceptions over his last six playoff games.

With Mahomes riding the longest streak ever by a quarterback without throwing an interception in NFL playoff history, +135 to win Super Bowl MVP is a bargain price.

Super Bowl 58 MVP value pick: Christian McCaffrey (+450)

If you’re betting on a non-QB to win Super Bowl MVP, Niners running back Christian McCaffrey is a great option. McCaffrey has decimated defences all year, leading the NFL with 1,459 rushing yards during the regular season (292 yards more than the next closest player) while running in 14 TDs.

McCaffrey’s success has carried over into the playoffs. He finished with 98 rushing yards and two TDs against Green Bay in the divisional round and he put up 90 yards and two TDs against Detroit in the NFC Championship Game. McCaffrey saw 24 combined rushing and receiving touches in each playoff game and that heavy workload should continue in the Super Bowl as he’s the centrepiece of this offence and San Francisco isn’t suddenly going to rely on Brock Purdy’s arm to get the job done.

McCaffrey will be an integral part of the 49ers’ scoring drives and that will lead to the type of stat line that could make him the first running back to win Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis in 1998.

Super Bowl 58 MVP dark horse candidate: Nick Bosa (+12,500)

It’s no secret that defensive players don’t get a lot of love when it comes to Super Bowl MVP voting, but if you’re looking for a long shot candidate in Super Bowl 58, you might want to take a look at San Francisco defensive end Nick Bosa. The No. 2 overall draft pick in 2019 won Defensive Player of the Year in 2022 after recording a league-best 18.5 sacks and he has 10 sacks in 11 career playoff games.

Bosa led the 49ers with 10.5 sacks during the regular season and he finished with a team-high 25 quarterback hits. He had two sacks against Detroit in the NFC Championship Game and he’s recorded six total tackles, two tackles for losses and nine quarterback hits through two playoff games this year.

If Bosa can find a way to break through Kansas City’s offensive line and get to Mahomes multiple times, he should be in the running for Super Bowl MVP.

Super Bowl MVP betting trends

Quarterbacks have won the won award 32 times, which is more than double every other position combined (26)
QBs have won six of the last 10 years, including three of the last four
Receivers have won the second-most Super MVPs (eight), including twice in the last five years (Cooper Kupp in 2022 and Julian Edelman in 2019)
At +2200, Edelman was also the biggest long shot to win the award in the last 20 years
Only three defensive players have won Super Bowl MVP in the last 20 years: Von Miller in 2016, Malcolm Smith in 2014, Dexter Jackson in 2003
Tom Brady (five), Joe Montana (three), Bart Starr (two), Terry Bradshaw (two), Eli Manning (two) and Patrick Mahomes (two) are the only players to win multiple Super Bowl MVPs in their career
The only special teams player to ever win Super Bowl MVP was kick/punt returner Desmond Howard in 1997

Super Bowl MVP betting history since 2000

Super Bowl Year	MVP	Position	Team
2023	Patrick Mahomes	Quarterback	Kansas City Chiefs
2022	Cooper Kupp	Wide Receiver	Los Angeles Rams
2021	Tom Brady	Quarterback	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2020	Patrick Mahomes	Quarterback	Kansas City Chiefs
2019	Julian Edelman	Wide Receiver	New England Patriots
2018	Nick Foles	Quarterback	Philadelphia Eagles
2017	Tom Brady	Quarterback	New England Patriots
2016	Von Miller	Linebacker	Denver Broncos
2015	Tom Brady	Quarterback	New England Patriots
2014	Malcolm Smith	Linebacker	Seattle Seahawks
2013	Joe Flacco	Quarterback	Baltimore Ravens
2012	Eli Manning	Quarterback	New York Giants
2011	Aaron Rodgers	Quarterback	Green Bay Packers
2010	Drew Brees	Quarterback	New Orleans Saints
2009	Santonio Holmes	Wide Receiver	Pittsburgh Steelers
2008	Eli Manning	Quarterback	New York Giants
2007	Peyton Manning	Quarterback	Indianapolis Colts
2006	Hines Ward	Wide Receiver	Pittsburgh Steelers
2005	Deion Branch	Wide Receiver	New England Patriots
2004	Tom Brady	Quarterback	New England Patriots
2003	Dexter Jackson	Safety	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2002	Tom Brady	Quarterback	New England Patriots
2001	Ray Lewis	Linebacker	Baltimore Ravens
2000	Kurt Warner	Quarterback	St. Louis Rams