Steelers vs. Bills Point Spread: NFL Week 1 Odds, Prediction

Jordan Ramsay | Updated Sep 08, 2021

After a breakout season that saw Josh Allen lead the Bills to the AFC championship game, Buffalo's franchise QB enters 2021 as one of the Top-3 favourites to win the NFL MVP at +911.

AT
September 12, 2021, 1:00 PM ET
New Era Field
Buffalo
4-1
Pointspread +6.5 +100
Moneyline +235
Over / Under o +48

31%

Betting Action

69%

Pointspread -6.5 -120
Moneyline -284
Over / Under u +48

31%

Betting Action

69%

With their eye on the AFC championship this year, the Buffalo Bills open their regular season at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday.  Pittsburgh went on an 11-game win streak to start 2020, but fell apart at the end of the year and couldn’t make it out of the first-round of the playoffs.  It’s likely Ben Roethlisberger‘s final season, but he’ll have a tough test right away, against Josh Allen.

Buffalo is a 6.5-point favourite to win on the NFL odds, with a total of 48.5.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

These teams met once last year, with the Bills earning a 26-15 home win in Week 14.  Allen threw for 248 yards with two touchdowns and an interception in the win.  For Pittsburgh, Roethlisberger finished with 187 passing yards with two TDs and two INTs.  The total has gone Under in five of the last six games between these teams.

The Steelers sputtered down the back stretch of last season, dropping five of their final six games, including a playoff loss to Cleveland.  They’ve dominated Buffalo over the last few years, winning 10 of the last 13 meetings.  Pittsburgh is 4-1 against the spread in their last five September games.  They’ve hit the Over in four of their last five games against AFC opponents.

Buffalo thrived at home last season, winning their last seven games at the newly renamed Highmark Stadium.  They’ve lost four of their last five home games against Pittsburgh, but have won the last two games in the overall series.  The Bills are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games and they’ve hit the Over in 13 of their last 19 contests.

If you’re interested in NFL player props, consider taking Allen at +911 to win the NFL MVP award this season.  Allen has the third-highest odds to win the award, behind only last year’s winner, Aaron Rodgers (+857), and Patrick Mahomes (+450).

Pittsburgh Steelers

When Roethlisberger hits the field for possibly his last Week 1 game, he’ll do so with a completely revamped offensive line.  Four of five starters from last season are gone, including three Pro Bowlers.  Centre Maurkice Pouncey retired, offensive tackle Alejandro Villanueva signed with division rival Baltimore and guard Matt Feiler signed with the Chargers.  Aditionally, guard David DeCastro was released after serious injury concerns.  Rookie Kendrick Green will take over at centre, while Dan Moore Jr. will start at left tackle.

Another Pittsburgh rookie making his regular season debut is running back Najee Harris, who Pittsburgh took 24th overall in the 2021 draft.  Harris is set to be a workhorse as Pittsburgh commits more to the run-game this season.  And at +797, he’s not a bad option to take as Offensive Rookie of the Year.

The clock is ticking for the Steelers to sign linebacker T.J. Watt before Sunday.  Watt hasn’t taken part in team practices while he tries to earn a long-term contract, although he has been working on individual drills.  He led the league with 15 sacks in 2020 and was runner-up for Defensive Player of the Year in each of the past two seasons.

Buffalo Bills

It was a career year for Allen in 2020 as he threw for over 4,500 yards and 37 TDs.  He completed 69.2 per cent of his passes and averaged 284 passing yards per game, finishing the season with a passer rating of 107.2.  Allen’s biggest target for this game will be Stefon Diggs, who caught eight of Allen’s 37 TD passes last year.  There was chemistry with Allen right away in 2020, as Diggs led the NFL in receptions (127) and receiving yards (1,535).  Against Pittsburgh last year, Diggs hauled in 10 catches for 130 yards.  If Watt isn’t in the Steelers lineup, expect Allen and Diggs to have big statistical nights.

As far as injuries go, the Bills are fairly healthy.  Defensive tackles Star Lotulelei and Harrison Phillips, as well as receiver Isaiah McKenzie have all been dealing with minor injuries, but practiced this week and are expected to be in the lineup on Sunday.  The only long-term injury issue is rookie receiver Marquez Stevenson, who has been dealing with a concussion and won’t be able to play until at least Week 4.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Steelers vs. Bills?

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