The conference championship games are over and your Super Bowl LVI matchup is set.  Joe Burrow’s Cincinnati Bengals will take on Matthew Stafford‘s L.A. Rams at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles on Sunday night.  Despite the game being held in the City of Angels, Cincinnati will be considered the home team.

The Bengals are the surprise team in the big game following their thrilling 27-24 overtime win in Kansas City to claim the AFC Championship.  The Rams had to take out an NFC West rival to get here, downing San Francisco 20-17 with a late field goal to win the NFC Championship.

L.A. opened as a 4-point favourite to win on the NFL odds, with a total of 48.5.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

There’s no real recent history to look at between these teams as they haven’t met since a 24-10 Rams home win in 2019, a game neither Stafford or Burrow played in.  Early Sports Interaction bettors are skewed toward the Bengals in this one at about a 58 per cent rate.  The Over/Under is almost split down the middle, with the Over attracting 53 per cent of the action.

Despite what the NFL will tell you, L.A. obviously has an advantage in this game and for our purposes we’re looking at it as their home game.  The Rams actually have a slightly better record outside of SoFi Stadium this year.  They’re 7-3 in Los Angeles compared to 8-2 on the road.  L.A. is an even 5-5 against the spread at home and on the road.  They’ve also covered in five of their last seven games against the Bengals.  The total went Under in six of 10 games at SoFi Stadium for the Rams this year.

The Cinderella Bengals come into this game with a 7-3 record outside of Cincinnati this year.  They’ve covered in eight of 10 total road games and they’re 7-0 ATS over their last seven games.  The total has gone Under in four of the Bengals’ last five games overall.  It’s also worth noting that each of the last five games between these teams has gone Under the total.

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are back in the Super Bowl for the second time in four years.  This time, however, coach Sean McVay has a competent quarterback in Stafford, who is finally tasting playoff success after over a decade in Detroit.  Stafford showed poise and flashes of elite talent to help L.A. overcome a 10-point fourth quarter deficit in the NFC championship game.  He led three scoring drives in the final quarter and finished the game 31-for-45 passing, with 337 yards, two touchdowns and an interception.  Stafford has thrown multiple touchdown passes in all three playoff games this year and completed 72 per cent of his passes for 905 yards.

Expect receivers Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr. to be major factors on Sunday.  Kupp, the regular season receiving leader in yards, TDs and catches, went off for 145 receiving yards and caught both TDs against the 49ers.  Beckham was equally effective, finishing with 113 receiving yards.

Defensively, Aaron Donald and former Super Bowl MVP Von Miller are the players to watch.  Donald recorded 12.5 sacks, 19 tackles for loss and 25 quarterback hits in the regular season.  He has picked up 1.5 sacks, two tackles for loss and six QB hits in the postseason.  Miller is also still playing at an elite level and his winning experience is a huge asset.  L.A.’s defensive unit finished the regular season third in the NFL with 50 sacks and they’re about to go up against a questionable offensive line that allowed Burrow to get sacked nine times in the divisional round.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are being seen less and less like an underdog, but don’t tell them that because it’s a role they clearly thrive in.  Burrow is already a star in his second season, helping Cincinnati overcome an 18-point deficit against Kansas City.  That matches the biggest comeback in AFC championship history.  The LSU alum was 23-for-38 passing, finishing with 250 yards, two TDs and an interception.   It’s been an amazing turnaround for a franchise that hadn’t won a playoff game since 1991 prior to this year.

Receiver Ja’Marr Chase has completed this offence.  Burrow’s former LSU teammate has made an immediate impact in his rookie season.  Chase finished fourth in the NFL with 1,455 receiving yards and his 13 TDs was third-best.  Including playoffs, Burrow and Chase have connected on 14 TDs.  Only thee other duos have more touchdown connections in their first season playing together.  Tom Brady-Randy Moss in 2007 (24), Randall Cunningham-Moss in 1998 (17) and Cincinnati’s opponents this week, Stafford-Kupp (20 and counting).

As good as Burrow and Chase have been, a lot of the Bengals’ success belongs to the defence, which has succeeded with timely plays in key moments.  Through three playoff games, Cincinnati has given up 371 total yards per game, but they’ve held opponents to just 19.7 points.  It was even Vonn Bell‘s interception in overtime against Kansas City that led to the Bengals’ game-winning drive.

Super Bowl Prediction: Who Will Win Rams vs. Bengals?