Patriots vs. Steelers Point Spread: NFL Week 2 Odds, Prediction
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Edgar Chaput
How times have changed. What was once an almost annual contest between two of the league’s legendary quarterbacks Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger is, in 2022, a battle between Mac Jones (maybe) and Mitchell Trubisky. Even though New England lost in Week 1 and Pittsburgh emerged victorious, both are licking some wounds, what with Mike Tomlin’s crew dealing with injuries.
As it stands, the Patriots are evaluated as -1.5 favourites, with a total of 40.5. Evidently, this is seen as a very, very close matchup.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Bill Belichick loves coaching against the Steelers, as evidenced by his team’s 7-3 record over the past 10 meetings, including some wins on the road. But again, many will argue the now absent GOAT had a lot to do with that success.
Regarding results against the spread, the Steelers were 8-10 last year (including playoffs). Conversely, the Patriots flipped their opponent’s ATS performance, going 10-8. 10-8 is solid and 8-10 isn’t terrible and the spread is 1.5. Again, this is an impressively even matchup. Of note, Pittsburgh did more than just cover last week in Cincinnati, as they came away from a win in overtime despite 1 touchdown underdogs.
New England Patriots
The Belichick naysayers were gifted early season ammunition when his Patriots were thumped by the Miami Dolphins in Week 1 by the score of 7-20. Interestingly, the stats sheet does not look awful for New England. The 3rd down conversion rate was respectable (44%), they outran Miami by a few yards (78 to 65), and the time of possession was comparable (5 fewer minutes).
The loss was a case of the worst things happening at the worst possible moments. A strip-sack fumble at their own 6-yard line led to an easy Dolphins score. Then, with less than a minute left in the first half and on 4th and 7 no less, Miami QB Tagovailoa dropped a dime to WR Waddle for an unexpected score. It was like seeing the things the Patriots did to so many opponents for so many years happening to them. That’s all about preparation.
Key injuries: QC Mac Jones (questionable)
Pittsburgh Steelers
Speaking of the victory in the Queen City, Week 1’s dramatic extra-time win will go down as one of the more memorable contests between the two divisional rivals. Frankly, it was one of the wildest Week 1 games in some time. To cap it off, Mike Tomlin’s troupe were road underdogs!
But closer inspection suggests expectations heading into Week 2 should be tempered. For one, the game somehow went to overtime despite Pittsburgh winning the turnover battle 5-0. They also sacked Joe Burrow 7 times whereas Trubisky was laid to the ground but once. What happened? A 26% 3rd down efficiency didn’t help, nor did only 75 total rushing yards despite so much hype surrounding Najee Harris (2.3 yards per run). Moreover, the stellar defence is entering this contest without TJ Watt, who suffered a pectoral muscle injury in the 4th quarter in Cinci. They won but must clean things up.
Key Injuries: LB TJ Watt (out), RB Najee Harris (questionable)
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