Patriots vs. Packers Point Spread: NFL Week 4 Odds, Prediction
The Packers return home after improving their record to 2-1-0 with a slim 14-12 victory over the injury-hobbled Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Patriots are coming off a brutal 37-26 loss in Baltimore, in which Mac Jones suffered an ankle injury that could sideline him for Sunday’s contest.
With Jones’ health status not looking hopeful, the Patriots have faded to 9.5-point underdogs since opening at +6.5, with 68% of sports bettors backing the Packers. The total has also been on the decline, dipping to 40.5 since opening at 42.5, with a slender 51% majority of the betting action backing the UNDER.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Sunday afternoon’s matchup at Lambeau Field marks the first meeting between these teams in New England’s post-Tom Brady era. The Patriots have claimed the win in three of their past four head-to-head dates, but have earned just one win in four all-time visits to Lambeau, capped by a 26-21 loss as 1.5-point underdogs when they last visited in November 2014. With the total topping 48 just once over their past six clashes, the UNDER enjoys a steady 5-1-0 run. Home teams have claimed victory in each of their past three clashes ending a 3-0-0 run for the visitors.
New England Patriots
The Patriots have carried over their late-season woes from last year into the new campaign, losing two of their first three contests, both by double-digit margins. Overall, New England has claimed victory in just two of their past eight overall games, with their 50-10 blowout win over the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 17 marking the only contest in which they have covered during that stretch. Apart from that outing, the Patriots have struggled to score, and have averaged fewer than 17 points per game this season.
This woes have not been helped by the injury to Mac Jones. While there has been plenty of speculation over how long Jones will be sidelined, head coach Bill Bellichick has remained coy, suggesting his young pivot is day-to-day. However, Bellichick has confirmed that veteran Bryan Hoyer will get the call on Sunday if Jones is unable to go. Hoyer has not earned a victory over his past 11 NFL starts, and was benched in the second half of his most recent start, a 26-10 loss to Kansas City in 2000. Further complicating matters in the uncertain status of receiver Jakobi Meyers, who racked 95 receiving yards last week, but has been limited at practice by a knee injury.
Green Bay Packers
Since opening their schedule with a dismal performance in a 23-7 loss to Minnesota, the Packers have turned things around with a pair of steady primetime performances. The Packers extended their recent dominance over the Chicago Bears with a decisive 27-10 victory in Week 2, and effectively shut down the Bucs’ injury riddled offense in last week’s win after establishing an early lead they would not relinquish with touchdowns on their first two possessions.
While Aaron Rodgers continues to adapt to life without his favourite target Davante Adams, he received a big assist from Aaron Jones. The Packers rusher ran for 132 yards and one score in Green bay’s first home date of the season versus Chicago, and has now tallied at least 66 yards in three of his past four home appearances. Even more important has been the play of the Packers defence, which has allowed just one touchdown over the past seven quarters, and just one total rushing score so far this season.
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