NFL
Sports Interaction Staff
October 3, 2017

Patriots vs. Buccaneers Point Spread: NFL Week 5 Odds, Prediction

Forget everything you know about Thursday night games. This one should be a real treat – at least from an offensive perspective – as the New England Patriots visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. New England is the only team in the league to average 30 points both for and against so far this season, and oddsmakers are expecting that trend to continue against a Bucs team coming off a thrilling 25-23 triumph over the New York Giants.

New England Patriots vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Point spread: Bucs -6
Date: Thursday, October 5, 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Fla.

Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Bucs are getting no love from oddsmakers despite surrendering just over 16 points per game to date; not only are they a two-field-goal underdog, but New England comes into this one with an incredible team total of 31. Belief in the Tampa Bay defense could pay off handsomely; you’ll get +130 odds on the under if you shave four points off the overall total of 56, and +375/+315 for New England finishing with two or three touchdowns, respectively.

Yet, while the betting trends see this one being a barn-burner – 71 percent of Sports Interaction bettors are taking the over – the crowd is nearly split down the middle on the spread, with 51 percent taking the Bucs as of Tuesday morning. One noteworthy trend if you’re leaning toward the Patriots or the over: Tampa Bay has failed to cover in four straight Thursday night games, while New England has played to the over in its last seven Thursday nighters.

New England Patriots

Everyone knows the Patriots will do most of their damage through the air, but it’s interesting to note that the ground game is a bit of a mismatch. New England averages a paltry 3.6 yards per carry on the season, with their five rushing touchdowns largely a product of a prolific passing game. The Buccaneers have limited opponents to a 2.9 YPC rate that ranks behind only the Denver Broncos league-wide. In other words, don’t expect much of a Patriots ground attack.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

On the other side of the ball, the Buccaneers will have running back Doug Martin back in action after he missed the first three games due to suspension. And what a matchup to come back to, with the Patriots allowing a whopping 5.1 YPC – second-highest in the NFL. Yet, while Martin is expected to invigorate a rush attack averaging just 3.8 YPC, the combination of overall rust and a short week will likely result in a diminished workload Thursday night.