NFL
Ricky Rothstein
November 6, 2017

Patriots vs. Broncos Point Spread: NFL Week 10 Odds, Prediction

It’s two franchises going in opposite directions facing off on Sunday as the New England Patriots bring a four-game winning streak into Denver, which has dropped its past four. The Pats are solid road favourites on the NFL odds board.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

When: Sunday, 8:30 PM ET
Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver
Point Spread: Patriots -7.5

Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Patriots-Broncos was the NFL’s best rivalry when Peyton Manning was still playing, and the teams have combined to win the past four AFC titles. The final Manning-Tom Brady game – maybe the NFL’s best-ever individual rivalry – was the AFC Championship Game following the 2015 season. Denver won that 20-18 at home, would upset Carolina in Super Bowl 50 and Manning retired with a 6-11 career record against Brady.

Last year, Denver hosted New England in Week 15 and the Pats won 16-3. Brady struggled in completing just 16 of 32 for 188 yards and a touchdown. The Broncos defense historically has given him trouble. Denver had three turnovers in that loss.

Including playoffs, Denver is 3-2 SU & ATS in the past five meetings. Four of those were at home.

New England Patriots

This is the first time the AFC East leader New England (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) will take the field since the surprising trade of backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to San Francisco for a 2018 second-round pick. Will that affect the Pats on the field this year? Only if Brady gets hurt, but Garoppolo was quite the security blanket to have. The Patriots signed veteran Brian Hoyer, who was released by the Niners after the trade, to back up Brady. Hoyer also held that role from his rookie 2009 season through 2011.

Even though the Patriots didn’t play in Week 9 they were winners because Buffalo, which had been just a half game back in the division, was upset Thursday night at the Jets. New England has won the AFC East every year since 2003 but one (2008) and is a heavy favourite again. The Pats have won seven of their past 10 following a bye week.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos (3-5 SU, 2-5-1 ATS) benched starting quarterback Trevor Siemian for Sunday’s game at Philadelphia and turned to backup Brock Osweiler. Denver’s 23 points were its most scored since Week 2, but one of the NFL’s best defenses was torched for 51. It was the first time the Broncos allowed at least 50 points in seven years. Osweiler wasn’t very good, completing 19 of 38 for a touchdown and two picks.

It’s possible that the team could now turn to 2016 first-round pick Paxton Lynch under center. He has yet to play this season due to a shoulder injury but is likely to get his shot if healthy. At 3-5, it’s almost time for the Broncos to start thinking toward the future and see what Lynch brings.