Patriots vs. Broncos NFL Playoffs AFC Championship Game Parlay Picks
With the devastating news that QB Bo Nix is out for the season with a broken ankle, the New England Patriots are suddenly the favourite to win on the road against the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET.
This is New England’s 16th championship game appearance, but first in seven years and first in nearly three decades without QB Tom Brady and coach Bill Belichick. The Broncos, in their first AFC Championship Game in a decade, are now the decided underdogs, but one with a comforting postseason history against the Pats.
Patriots vs. Broncos NFL Playoffs AFC Championship Parlay
- Under 42.5 total points (-110)
- Drake Maye over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+105)
- Stefon Diggs 50+ receiving yards (-105)
Patriots vs. Broncos parlay odds: +650
Under 42.5 total points (-110)
Yes, Jarrett Stidham is under centre on Sunday. Yes, he hasn’t thrown a pass in the league since 2023. The Pats should win this easily, 45-10, right? Here’s the thing, though. New England has never won in the postseason at Mile High in Denver.
Brady and Belichick lost there in the playoffs three times, twice in this very AFC Championship Game. Tony Eason and the Pats got smoked here in 1987, the year after New England’s first Super Bowl appearance. In fact, the only time New England has bested the Broncos in the postseason came in the divisional round against Tim Tebow in 2012. That was at home.
Mile High so often brings out the worst in teams, and Drake Maye and the Patriots’ offence have looked shaky against the Chargers and Texans. New England’s own defence has been dominant in the first two games of the postseason, so I don’t expect Stidham to light it up either. Therefore, I expect this will be a low-scoring affair, especially with frigid temps and some flurries expected, possibly replicating the setting at Gillette Stadium last week.
Drake Maye over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+105)
Maye sure does have a poker face, offering just a slight grin despite all of the Patriots’ success this season. He gives the same look even when he has to answer incessant questions about New England’s easy schedule, or hear criticisms from whatever trash show ESPN deems more valuable than its former standout morning SportsCenter staple.
Even with last week’s shaky performance, which included an interception and four fumbles, the second-year standout still threw three touchdown passes. He’s thrown multiple touchdown passes in a game 12 times this year. Although this game could end in a 21-17-type performance, look for Maye to find the end zone through the air at least twice.
Stefon Diggs 50+ receiving yards (-105)
Although he scored a touchdown last week, Diggs has been somewhat of an afterthought the past few weeks. Going back to the last regular-season game against the Dolphins, Diggs only has nine catches for 99 yards. Kayshown Boutte, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Hunter Henry all have more postseason receiving yards than Diggs’ 56.
However, this is the ultimate spotlight for New England’s first 1,000-yard receiver in six seasons. The 11-year veteran has 942 receptions for 11,504 yards in his 11-year career. But no Super Bowl appearances. Take away the typical wide receiver diva personality and all of the off-field tabloid issues. Diggs is a gamer, a competitor, and he came to New England to prove doubters wrong. He’ll never get a better chance to do that than on Sunday.
