NFL Week 6 Odds Report: Vikings Begin Life Without Justin Jefferson

There are only two teams in the league remaining without a straight-up loss – every team has at least one against the spread defeat – and those are the two clubs who met in last season’s NFC title game: San Francisco and Philadelphia. Neither is likely to lose Sunday, either, especially the Niners as they will catch a major break. Let’s break down three Week 6 games that have seen odds shifts and why.

49ers at Browns (+3 to +9.5)

If you happened to bet San Francisco on the spread very early this week, congratulations. In many aspects, it’s a bit of a trap game for the 49ers as they won their 15^th straight regular-season game last Sunday night in a mammoth showdown against the Dallas Cowboys on national TV. Now the Niners have to play in a 10 a.m. Pacific time kick with chilly, rainy weather in the forecast. However, this spread has skyrocketed (and the total dropped several points) because the Browns will be without starting QB Deshaun Watson for a second straight game as he looks to be quitting on his team.

Watson has a shoulder issue but was medically cleared for Week 4. Watson, he of the record-setting $230 million (US) guaranteed contract, chose to not suit up. OK, well, the Browns had their bye in Week 5. Except Watson won’t play this week, either. What a shame because Cleveland had a shot at the upset with the NFL’s No. 2 defence. And what a shame Watson, apparently, doesn’t care about his teammates. Former XFL QB PJ Walker will make his first start of the year. Rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson got the call in Week 4 but really struggled. On the other side is Niners QB Brock Purdy, the Mr. Irrelevant in the 2022 NFL Draft. He is making about $870,000 this year and with a win would tie Ben Roethlisberger (15 consecutive wins to begin his career) as the only quarterbacks to begin their careers since 1970 to win each of their first 11 career starts. No team in the NFL would take Watson over Purdy now.

Vikings at Bears (+4.5 to +2.5)

The Vikings were NFC North champions last season and set an NFL record with 11 wins in one-score games. Regression had to happen this year, and the pendulum truly has swung completely the other way with the Vikes at 1-4 – all four losses in one-score games – and now without superstar receiver Justin Jefferson, the 2022 NFL Offensive Player of the Year, for at least four games and maybe the season, so all those optimistic futures tickets on JJ (repeat OPOY, lead league in catches and receiving yards again) are trash. So are many fantasy football teams as Jefferson was usually the No. 1 overall pick in those leagues.

Jefferson injured his hamstring in Sunday’s loss to Kansas City. On its own, the injury is not expected to end his season, but every NFL talking head is speculating that Jefferson will not push to return if the Vikings are out of the playoff chase (they will be) because the team never extended his contract. Why risk an even more serious injury heading into the final year of his rookie deal in 2024? No Jefferson is why this dropped, although some 3s are starting to return because Chicago has a few injury concerns of its own and might be missing its top two running backs.

Cardinals at Rams (-4.5 to -7)

Bettors always cringe when games move either up or down and land on that magic number of 7, which is Push Central in the NFL. Alas, this isn’t looking likely move off it because once a spread hits 7, books don’t like adding or taking away a half-point.

Cards QB Kyler Murray still is not close to returning from injured reserve as he rehabs his torn ACL, although this move has nothing to do with that. The Cards for sure will be without No. 1 running back James Conner and perhaps No. 1 wideout Marquise Brown, who has scored a TD in three of his past four games after only three receiving TDs all last year. Brown missed practice Wednesday with an illness and was limited Thursday. His status should be finalized Friday, but, again, this seems unlikely to dip back down under 7. If it does, I’ll be playing it.