NFL Week 4 Odds and Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread
This week is the last in the NFL for a while without byes, it’s back to one Monday night game instead of two and the league’s first international game of 2023 will be played. Here’s a quick look at all Week 4 NFL games, played Sunday unless noted.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers, Thursday
Both teams played without several key starters Sunday but both managed to win, with Green Bay rallying from down 17-0 in the fourth quarter at home vs. New Orleans – that 18-17 victory was QB Jordan Love’s first-ever start at Lambeau. Detroit, a Week 3 winner over Atlanta, visited Lambeau in Week 18 last year and upset Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to keep them from the NFC playoffs and essentially end Rodgers’ Green Bay career.
Pick ATS: Detroit
Atlanta Falcons “at” Jacksonville Jaguars
This is the Jags’ annual game in London with a kickoff of 9:30 a.m. ET from Wembley Stadium. These teams made a big deal at the 2022 trade deadline with the Falcons sending Pro Bowl receiver Calvin Ridley to Jacksonville for draft picks. Both Ridley and the Jags had a big Week 1 but have struggled offensively in back-to-back losses. Atlanta has gone how rookie RB Bijan Robinson has gone in the first three games. He was great the first two (wins) and a non-factor Sunday in Detroit (loss).
Pick ATS: Jacksonville (buy down to -2.5)
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
If this were later in the season, this probably would be flexed into primetime as it’s pretty clearly the marquee matchup of the week. Miami could have set the NFL regular-season scoring record on Sunday but Coach Mike McDaniel opted to not kick a short field goal leading 70-20 over Denver. What the Dolphins did was breathtaking offensively, and they were without stellar No. 2 WR Jaylen Waddle (concussion). As bad as Buffalo looked in a Week 1 loss at the Jets is as good as the Bills and Josh Allen have looked in winning back-to-back weeks in easy fashion.
Pick ATS: Buffalo
Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears
Perhaps the two most disappointing teams in the NFL and the loser is in the driver’s seat early for USC quarterback Caleb Williams in the 2024 draft. Denver at least played well the first two weeks before being embarrassed Sunday by allowing 70 points in Miami. Chicago has been an unqualified mess with QB Justin Fields regressing. The Bears lost their defensive coordinator last week under mysterious circumstances. No team is a bigger disaster right now.
Pick ATS: Chicago (buy up to +3.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
While the Ravens were missing a few key injured starters, including WR Odell Beckham Jr. on Sunday, they were not supposed to lose at home to Indianapolis but did 22-19 in overtime. Baltimore’s Justin Tucker, the best kicker ever, was just short on a 61-yard try at the end of regulation. Safety Kyle Hamilton had three sacks for the Ravens. Cleveland began life without Pro Bowl running back Nick Chubb, lost for the season, with a 27-3 home win over Tennessee. Jerome Ford, who moved into Chubb’s starting spot, had two touchdowns.
Pick ATS: Cleveland
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans
Short week for Cincinnati off a 19-16 win over the Rams on Monday. QB Joe Burrow was considered doubtful with a calf injury but admitted he felt obligated to play with his team potentially looking at 0-3. Burrow was just OK, completing 26 of 49 for 259 yards and a pick and should play in this one. The Titans were clobbered 27-3 in Cleveland and managed only 94 total yards. It was the fewest yards for the Titans since they relocated from Houston in 1997. The previous low was 98 against Jacksonville in 2006.
Pick ATS: Cincinnati
Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts
Short week for Los Angeles as on Monday it lost 19-16 in Cincinnati. Matthew Stafford was picked twice and rookie WR Puka Nacua was held to five catches for 72 yards after a historic two-game start. The Colts played without good-looking rookie QB Anthony Richardson on Sunday and veteran Gardner Minshew led a 22-19 OT upset win. Minshew threw for 227 yards and a touchdown and may have to start at least one more game. Indy’s Matt Gay made a record four kicks from beyond 50 yards, including a 53-yarder that tied it in the final minute of regulation and a 53-yarder to win it.
Pick ATS: Indianapolis
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Short week for the Bucs after losing 25-11 at home to Philadelphia on Monday. Clearly, Tampa Bay’s 2-0 start was a fluke as those wins were against winless Chicago and Minnesota. New Orleans could will be without QB Derek Carr. He left Sunday’s game at Green Bay in the third quarter with a shoulder injury up 17-0 … and the Saints lost 18-17. Backup Jameis Winston, the former No. 1 overall pick of the Bucs, would start this week if Carr can’t. Pro Bowl running back Alvin Kamara will be available off suspension.
Pick ATS: New Orleans (buy down to -2.5)
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia was a 25-11 winner on Monday night in Tampa. Jalen Hurts improved to 20-1 over his last 21 regular-season games as he passed and rushed for a score. Washington had perhaps been the luckiest team in the first two weeks of the season but was put in its place Sunday in a 37-3 home loss to Buffalo. Commanders QB Sam Howell might be seeing ghosts as he was sacked nine times and threw four picks.
Pick ATS: Philadelphia
Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers
Will Panthers quarterback and struggling No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young play? He missed Carolina’s 37-27 loss Week 3 in Seattle with an ankle injury. Veteran Andy Dalton was under centre and threw for 361 yards and two scores. He’s the better QB right now but if Young is healthy will start. The Vikings found creative ways to win last season and creative ways to lose this year at 0-3 – the Kirk Cousins trade rumors get louder and louder. He had another monster game in Sunday’s loss to the Chargers but was picked late with a chance to win.
Pick ATS: Carolina
Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans
Pittsburgh is still a work in progress offensively but improved to 2-1 with Sunday night’s 23-18 win in Las Vegas. The Steelers had 333 yards and 17 first downs, which aren’t huge numbers, but they totalled 494 yards and 24 first downs through the first two games. No. 1 WR Diontae Johnson was out injured again. Houston got win No. 1 for coach DeMeco Ryans and rookie QB CJ Stroud with a big 37-17 upset in Jacksonville on Sunday. Houston’s Andrew Beck, a 255-pound fullback, became the heaviest player in NFL history to return a kickoff for a touchdown.
Pick ATS: Pittsburgh (buy down to -2.5)
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
The Raiders may be without No. 1 QB Jimmy Garoppolo as he suffered a possible concussion in Sunday night’s loss to Pittsburgh in which Jimmy G had three picks. Veteran journeyman Brian Hoyer is the Raiders’ No. 2. The Chargers have played the past two weeks without Pro Bowl running back Austin Ekeler due to injury. He might return this week, but No. 2 WR Mike Williams suffered a season-ending injury in Sunday’s late win in Minnesota.
Pick ATS: Los Angeles
New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys
The Patriots avoided an 0-3 start Sunday but still had their issues offensively in a 15-10 win over the awful Jets. It was New England’s 15th straight win in the series. Long-time Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott was signed by the Patriots this offseason after his release from Dallas. Zeke had 80 yards on 16 carries Sunday. Dallas clearly was looking past a bad Arizona team and stunned 28-16 after learning Pro Bowl cornerback Trevon Diggs was done for the season.
Pick ATS: Dallas (buy down to -6.5)
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are the third team in NFL history to start the season 3-0 while scoring the same number of points in each game (30 points), joining the 2007 Patriots (38 points) and the 1936 Pittsburgh Pirates (10 points). Christian McCaffrey has scored at least one TD in 12 straight games, tying the team record. Arizona shocked Dallas on Sunday 28-16 and kudos to first-year coach Jonathan Gannon as the Cardinals have played very competitively in the early going with likely the league’s worst roster.
Pick ATS: Arizona (buy up to +14.5)
Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets
Sunday night game, and I guarantee this would be flexed out if it was allowed this early in the season. Looked like a spectacular matchup entering the season, but Aaron Rodgers’ injury changed all that. Zach Wilson was anemic at QB for the Jets again in Sunday’s loss to the Patriots and even Jets icon Joe Namath is saying enough. The only other option right now is Tim Boyle. Kansas City had a glorified scrimmage on Sunday in routing the Bears with Taylor Swift on hand in KC to watch reported new boyfriend Travis Kelce.
Pick ATS: New York (buy up to +10)
Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants, Monday
About the only solace for the Giants is that they haven’t looked as bad as the Jets. Close. That Giants defence still hasn’t forced a turnover and the offence managed 150 yards last Thursday in a 30-12 loss to the 49ers playing without Pro Bowl running back Saquon Barkley and two starting offensive linemen. Seattle was a 37-27 winner over Carolina on Sunday despite missing several injured starters on both sides of the ball. Kenneth Walker III rushed for two second-half touchdowns.
Pick ATS: Wait on Barkley