NFL Week 3 Odds and Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread

The notable thing about Week 3 around the NFL is that we get our first Monday night doubleheader of the season with starts staggered 45 minutes apart, the first kick at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN and the second at 8:15 p.m. ET.

New England Patriots at New York Jets, Thursday

The second straight week that it’s an AFC East matchup on Thursday night. The teams split last season with the Jets’ Week 18 road victory ending their 15-game losing streak in the series and also the final game as Patriots head coach for Bill Belichick.  The Jets are looking to win back-to-back games vs the Patriots for the first time since 2008-09. Jets QB Aaron Rodgers at age 40 is two years older than first-year Pats coach Jerod Mayo. New York lost starting defensive end Jermaine Johnson to a season-ending injury in Sunday’s win at Tennessee. 

Pick ATS: New York

New York Giants at Cleveland Browns

Two teams with major quarterback problems but for very different reasons. The Giants lost kicker Graham Gano to injury on the opening kickoff Sunday and that proved huge in 21-18 loss at Washington. Not having Gano forced New York to go for it on several fourth-down situations in a couple of failed two-point tries after punter Jamie Gillan missed an extra point attempt early. New  York is working out kickers this week. Rookie WR Malik Nabers was the Giants’ best player with 10 catches for 127 yards and his first career TD reception. Cleveland’s Deshaun Watson wasn’t statistically great Sunday but led an upset win in Jacksonville. The Browns snapped a six-game streak with multiple giveaways. 

Pick ATS: Cleveland

Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans

Green Bay played Sunday without injured Pro Bowl quarterback Jordan Love, who is not expected back this week, but upset the visiting Colts, 16-10, thanks to 261 yards rushing. QB Malik Willis, a former Titan in his Packers debut, rushed for 41 yards and was a 12-for-14 passing for 122 yards and a TD with no turnovers. That makes 18 straight seasons where Green Bay has avoided a 0-2 start. Tennessee has played well enough defensively to be 2-0 but is winless due to a struggling offence under second-year QB Will Levis. He had two more turnovers in Sunday’s loss to the Jets and was caught on TV cameras being belittled by first-year coach Brian Callahan after a costly fumble deep in Jets territory. 

Pick ATS: Green Bay (alternate line of +3.5)

Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts

Two very intriguing young quarterbacks in Chicago’s first-year Caleb Williams and Indy’s second-year Anthony Richardson. Williams has struggled so far, completing only 56.1 per cent of his throws for 267 yards, no TDs and two picks. He didn’t have starting WR Keenan Allen for Sunday’s 19-13 loss in Houston. Richardson had three picks in Sunday’s loss in Green Bay. The Colts also lost two top defenders to injury in rookie end Laiatu Latu and Pro Bowl tackle DeForest Buckner. Latu should be fine for Sunday, but Buckner might miss time. 

Pick ATS: Chicago

Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings

Matchup of unbeatens as new Houston Pro Bowl wideout Stefon Diggs makes his return to Minnesota for the first time since the Vikings dealt him in 2020 to Buffalo. The Texans are the second team under the current divisional format to start 2-0 while the rest of their division started 0-2. Top running back Joe Mixon injured his ankle in Sunday night’s win over Chicago and is likely out. Vikings Pro Bowl wideout Justin Jefferson caught a 97-yard TD pass in Sunday’s upset vs. San Francisco. He injured his quadriceps but Jefferson says he will play. 

Pick ATS: Houston

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints

Short week for the Eagles as they played Monday night without injured Pro Bowl receiver A.J. Brown and lost 22-21 at home to Atlanta. Brown is not expected Sunday, either. The Saints have been the most impressive team in the NFL through two weeks with blowouts of Carolina and then Sunday in Dallas. The Cowboys had won 16 straight regular-season games, but New Orleans rolled 44-19 behind four TDs from Alvin Kamara. The Saints got touchdowns on their first six drives a week after setting a franchise record by starting the season with points on nine consecutive possessions. 

Pick ATS: New Orleans

Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers

A pair of surprising 2-0 teams but both very well-coached. Jim Harbaugh has worked his magic with the Chargers, that’s for sure. QB Justin Herbert injured his right leg in Sunday’s 26-3 win at Carolina, but X-rays were negative and he should be ready. Tailback JK Dobbins’ 266 rushing yards through two games are the most by any Chargers player in the team’s first two games of a season. The Steelers have used Justin Fields the first two weeks at QB with projected starter Russell Wilson injured. Can Coach Mike Tomlin actually pull an unbeaten Fields even if Wilson is ready? We may not know until Thursday at the earliest. Pittsburgh is 2-0 not much because of the offence but the defence. 

Pick ATS: Pittsburgh

Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Denver coach Sean Payton opted to name rookie Bo Nix his starting QB out of camp and that has not gone well yet with the Broncos at 0-2 and Nix throwing two more picks in Sunday’s loss to Pittsburgh. Nix has four interceptions and zero touchdowns, averaging 5.0 yards per attempt. No indication yet that Payton is ready for a change. The Bucs got some playoff revenge Sunday with an impressive 20-16 win in Detroit behind a TD throw and rush from Baker Mayfield, who looks more comfortable with the team by the game. Pro Bowl defensive tackle Vita Vea left injured and is day-to-day. 

Pick ATS: Tampa Bay

Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders

Is it too early to think about 0-17 for Carolina? Not after being outscored 73-13 in back-to-back losses. QB Bryce Young, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft, looked so lost again in Sunday’s 26-3 home defeat to the Chargers that he has been benched for veteran journeyman Andy Dalton by first-year head coach Dave Canales for now. Welcome to rock bottom. The Raiders were staring at 0-2 as well down 23-13 in the fourth quarter in Baltimore on Sunday but won 26-23.  Rookie tight end Brock Bowers had nine more catches and has 15 through two games, most by any tight end in league history.

Pick ATS: Las Vegas

Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks

Miami lost quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to yet another scary concussion in last Thursday’s home blowout loss to Buffalo and he’s out at least this week if not for many, many weeks with some calling for Tua to retire because of this recurring problem. He says that’s not in the cards. Skylar Thompson, a 2022 seventh-round pick, will start at QB this week. Tyler Huntley was signed off the Baltimore practice squad to server as the backup. Seattle is 2-0 but has played two really bad teams in Denver and New England. No. 1 running back Kenneth Walker missed Sunday’s 23-20 overtime comeback win at the Patriots, and a few defensive starters left early. 

Pick ATS: Seattle

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys

Could be a Super Bowl LIX preview, although neither looked remotely super on Sunday. The Cowboys’ 16-game home winning streak ended embarrassingly Sunday in a 44-19 loss to New Orleans. It was the second-worst home-opening loss since Jerry Jones bought the team in 1989. The Saints had 290 yards in the first half alone, or 60 more than the Cowboys allowed in their Week 1 win against the Cleveland Browns. Baltimore is a few inches from 2-0 but is winless after inexplicably blowing a 10-point home lead in the fourth quarter Sunday vs. Las Vegas. The Ravens now have 10 losses in the past four seasons when up at least seven points in the fourth quarter.

Pick ATS: Dallas

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams

The NFC West rivals split last season, each winning on the road. Pretty much every starter on both sides rested for the Week 18 Rams victory with both clubs headed to the playoffs. The Rams will be crazy thin at receiver for a while. Puka Nacua landed on IR after Week 1, so he’s out several games. In Sunday’s shocking 41-10 loss in Arizona, former Offensive Player of the Year Cooper Kupp injured his ankle and was seen in a walking boot. He’s out at least this week and probably longer. The Niners were upset 23-17 at Minnesota. QB Brock Purdy is now 14-2 in his career vs. the NFC and both losses are at the Vikings. Niners Pro Bowl WR Deebo Samuel will miss at least this week injured. 

Pick ATS: San Francisco (alternate line of -6.5)

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals

Detroit was surprised on Sunday at home by Tampa Bay, a game that Coach Dan Campbell accepted blame for due to a few mistakes by him and his staff. Pro Bowl receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown suffered a lower-leg injury but apparently avoided anything serious. Arizona was widely expected to be a lot better this year with a healthy Kyler Murray and drafting WR Marvin Harrison Jr. with the No. 4 overall pick in this year’s draft. Those two were stellar on Sunday’s blowout of the Rams as Murray threw for three scores, two to Harrison. 

Pick ATS: Arizona (alternate line of +3.5)

Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons

Sunday night game and second straight prime-time matchup for the Falcons as they will be on a short week after a 22-21 comeback win in Philadelphia on Monday night to conclude Week 2. Kirk Cousins threw two TDs after really struggling in Week 1 in his Falcons debut. Kansas City was the benefit of a late pass interference call against Cincinnati on Sunday, which led to Harrison Butker’s walk-off 51-yard field goal in the 26-25 win. However, top Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco injured his leg and will land on IR, missing at least four games. 

Pick ATS: Atlanta

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills, Monday

The first MNF kickoff. Bills quarterback Josh Allen has now won seven straight regular-season starts after last Thursday’s easy win over Miami, while Jags QB Trevor Lawrence has lost seven in a row after another ugly Jaguars offensive effort Sunday in a home loss to Cleveland. That’s the longest active win streak and losing streak, respectively, among starting QBs. Jags Pro Bowl tight end Evan Engram strained a hamstring during pregame warmups and was ruled out an hour before kickoff. 

Pick ATS: Buffalo

Washington Commanders at Cincinnati Bengals, Monday

This kicks at the normal Monday time of 8:15 p.m. ET. Commanders No. 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels is the new Offensive Rookie of the Year betting favourite after throwing for 226 yards with only six incompletions and rushing for 44 yards in Sunday’s 21-18 win over the Giants. Kicker Austin Siebert set a franchise record with seven field goals, including the walk-off winner from 30 yards. Cincinnati is 0-2 for the second straight season. The previous two years, it finished with a winning record. No club in history has started three straight seasons 0-2 and finished with a winning mark. It hasn’t helped that Pro Bowl WR Tee Higgins hasn’t played yet this year due to injury and superstar WR Ja’Marr Chase is pouting without a contract extension. 

Pick ATS: Washington