NFL Week 18 Odds and Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread
We have arrived at the final week of the NFL regular season, which includes a couple of Saturday games. The Sunday night matchup wasn’t prescheduled but instead the league picks what it believes is the most playoff-important into that time slot. Note: In some circumstances, we are assuming that the suspended/postponed Bills-Bengals game from Monday in Week 17 will not be resumed. The top of the AFC playoff standings would be decided by overall win per centage.
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders, Saturday
Raiders coach Josh McDaniels surprisingly benched QB Derek Carr ahead of Week 17, and Carr’s career with the team is most likely over. Jarrett Stidham played quite well in his first NFL start, but the Raiders lost in OT to San Francisco. Stidham will get the call again. Kansas City apparently would earn the AFC’s top seed with a win because of the unusual circumstances of what happened in Monday’s Bills-Bengals suspended game. The Chiefs beat the Raiders 30-29 in Week 5 when a Vegas two-point conversion failed.
Pick ATS: Las Vegas (alternate line of +10)
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars, Saturday
The winner takes the AFC South and the loser most likely misses the playoffs – Jacksonville could lose and earn a wild-card spot but would need a LOT of help. The Titans were routed at home by the Jags in Week 14, 36-22. Tennessee basically punted last Thursday’s home game vs. Dallas as Coach Mike Vrabel rested a ton of starters and also surprised many by giving QB Josh Dobbs his first NFL start having just been signed off the Detroit practice squad. Rookie Malik Willis had started the other three games this season when Ryan Tannehill (on IR) was hurt. Dobbs played fairly well in the 27-13 loss and starts this one.
Pick ATS: Jacksonville
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
The Bucs beat the Falcons 21-15 in Week 5 but tried to blow a 21-0 fourth-quarter lead. If not for a ridiculous roughing-the-passer call on Atlanta late in the fourth, it might have won. This game is totally meaningless with the Falcons eliminated from playoff contention and Tampa Bay having won the NFC South with Sunday’s 30-24 comeback win over Carolina. The Bucs will host the conference’s top wild-card team next weekend. Coach Todd Bowles says he will play starters Sunday. Highly doubt it’s for very long.
Pick ATS: Atlanta (alternate line of -2.5)
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Could this be Bill Belichick’s final game as Pats coach? You hear some retirement talk. The Patriots would earn the AFC’s final wild-card spot with a victory. It’s obviously an unusual spot for Buffalo after safety Damar Hamlin collapsed on the field Monday in Cincinnati, suffered cardiac arrest and nearly died. Assuming that game isn’t resumed, Buffalo might have nothing to play for here if Kansas City clinches the AFC’s top seed on Saturday. New England lost 24-10 at home to Buffalo in Week 13.
Point spread: TBA
Pick ATS: TBA
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
After getting crushed in Green Bay on Sunday, the Vikings can’t earn the NFC’s top seed and likely will be locked in as the conference’s No. 3. Thus, there may be little to play for and starters could be rested – perhaps keeping Justin Jefferson from breaking the NFL single-season receiving yardage record. Chicago has lost nine in a row and probably rests rising star young QB Justin Fields here. It could still get the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft. The Vikings beat the Bears 29-22 in Week 5.
Pick ATS: Chicago
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
If the NFL doesn’t resume Monday’s Bills-Bengals game, Cincinnati can’t earn the AFC’s top seed but would have the AFC North title locked up and this game wouldn’t mean much to either side as the Ravens have clinched a wild-card spot. If so, there’s no way Baltimore would rush back injured QB Lamar Jackson. The Ravens go for the sweep as they beat the Bengals 19-17 in Week 5.
Point spread: TBA
Pick ATS: TBA
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
The Chargers are an AFC wild-card team and the Broncos are a disappointing mess who will be hiring a new head coach in the next month or so. LA coach Brandon Staley says he will play his starters in an attempt to earn the best possible wild-card seed. Not sure he’s being truthful. Los Angeles beat Denver 19-16 in OT in Week 6.
Pick ATS: Denver (alternate line of +3.5)
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
The AFC South rivals are playing out the string and both might have head coaches next year – and almost surely will have new starting QBs. Houston would earn the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft with a loss (or Chicago loss). The teams tied 20-20 in Week 1 as the Texans blew a 20-3 fourth-quarter lead. Sam Ehlinger has been named Indy’s starting QB for this one.
Pick ATS: Indianapolis
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
Both AFC East teams in utter free-fall. New York lost its fifth in a row Sunday, 23-6 in Seattle, and was eliminated from wild-card contention. The 2023 Jets starting QB is not currently on the roster. Miami lost its fifth in a row, 23-21, at New England playing without starting QB Tua Tagovailoa due to a concussion, and then backup Teddy Bridgewater left with a reported dislocated finger. Expected to either be Bridgewater or third-string rookie Skylar Thompson here. The Fins earn a wild-card spot with a win and Patriots loss in Buffalo. The Jets pounded the Dolphins 40-17 in Week 5.
Pick ATS: Miami
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
Both these clubs should have new starting QBs in Week 1 next season and both were eliminated from NFC South contention in Week 17 as the Panthers blew a double-digit lead at Tampa Bay, while New Orleans was an upset winner in Philadelphia. Carolina beat New Orleans 22-14 in Week 3.
Pick ATS: New Orleans (alternate line of -3)
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles clinch the NFC’s top seed and NFC East title with a win, and star QB Jalen Hurts is expected back after missing the past two games injured. Philly could fall to a wild-card spot with a loss. New York is locked into the No. 6 seed in the NFC after Sunday’s rout of Indianapolis. Coach Brian Daboll says he will play his starters this week. We’ll see. Philadelphia won easy over the Giants 48-22 in Week 14.
Pick ATS: New York (alternate line of +14.5)
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Browns come off a win in Washington but are eliminated from playoff contention, and Deshaun Watson has not looked good at quarterback in his limited action. He clearly needs a full offseason. The Steelers were upset winners in Baltimore and would earn the AFC’s final wild-card spot with a win AND Dolphins loss vs. Jets AND Patriots loss at Bills. Both those are realistic. Pittsburgh lost 29-17 in Cleveland in Week 3.
Point spread: Steelers -3
Pick ATS: Pittsburgh (alternate line of -2.5)
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
The Cardinals most likely will have a new head coach next season as they play out a massively disappointing season and not sure who will start at QB for this one. It’s the final NFL game for three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year (all with Houston) and future Hall of Famer JJ Watt as he’s retiring. The Niners clinch the NFC’s top seed with a win and Eagles home loss to the Giants. San Francisco won the first meeting 38-10 in Week 11 in Mexico City.
Pick ATS: Arizona (alternate line of +14.5)
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
The Rams might be the worst defending Super Bowl champions ever. The Seahawks will earn the NFC’s final wild-card spot with a victory and a Detroit upset win in Green Bay in the Sunday night game. Seattle won in LA, 27-23 in Week 13.
Pick ATS: Seattle
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders
The Cowboys won 27-13 at Tennessee last Thursday, catching a major break in that the Titans rested numerous starters. Dak Prescott’s interception problem continued, though, as he had two more and has at least one in six straight games (total of 10 in that span). The Cowboys could finish anywhere from the NFC’s top seed to its top wild-card team (most likely scenario). The Commanders were eliminated from playoff contention with Sunday’s home loss to Cleveland and BIG changes are coming there in the offseason. Washington lost in Dallas, 25-10 in Week 4.
Pick ATS: Dallas
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Flexed to Sunday night. Surging Green Bay is a wild-card team with a victory no matter what happens earlier in the day. Detroit would earn the spot if Seattle loses earlier Sunday at home to the Rams (wouldn’t count on that) and with a win here. Coach Dan Campbell says his guys will go all-out regardless. The Lions go for the rare season sweep as they won 15-9 at home in Week 9.
Pick ATS: Green Bay