NFL Week 17 Odds and Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread
Because of a Christmas doubleheader (both on Netflix), we have NFL action every day this week except Tuesday and Friday – including the final Thursday and Monday night games of the regular season.
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers, Wednesday
Kansas City is one win or Buffalo loss from clinching the AFC’s top seed, so you know the Chiefs will be going all-out to get that done this week so they can rest Patrick Mahomes and other starters in Week 18. Mahomes was in question this past Saturday against Houston due to an ankle sprain; he not only played but had a career-high 15-yard rush TD. The Steelers fell into a first-place AFC North tie with the Ravens after a 34-17 loss on Saturday in Baltimore, but Pittsburgh still controls its destiny for the division. No. 1 wideout George Pickens has missed three straight games and his big-play ability has been missed, but Pickens might return Wednesday.
Pick ATS: Pittsburgh (alternate line of +3.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans, Wednesday
Rematch of last postseason’s Divisional Round game in which the Ravens routed the visiting Texans 34-10 as Baltimore had more rushing yards (229) than Houston had total yards (213). Really the Texans have little to play for the final two weeks as they are AFC South champions and can’t move up the AFC standings more than one spot at most. They are lost another starting receiver to a season-ending injury in Saturday’s loss to Kansas City in Tank Dell. Baltimore, which has clinched a playoff spot, easily handled Pittsburgh on Saturday to tie for first in the AFC North but still loses a tiebreaker currently.
Pick ATS: Baltimore
Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears, Thursday
It’s the home finale for the massively disappointing Bears, who lost a ninth straight game Sunday, 34-17 to Detroit. The team has looked rudderless since head coach Matt Eberflus was fired the day after Thanksgiving. The defence in particular has mailed it in as Eberflus called those plays. Seattle still has NFC West title hopes, but those took a big hit in Sunday’s 27-24 home loss to Minnesota. Essentially, the Seahawks now have to win out and get some help.
Pick ATS: Chicago
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots, Saturday
The Chargers got to the verge of clinching a wild-card spot with last Thursday’s 34-27 win over Denver to snap a two-game skid, but they didn’t get the results they needed Sunday. But simply a victory here and Coach Jim Harbaugh’s team is in. Top running back JK Dobbins might be activated off injured reserve. The Patriots lost their fifth in a row Sunday, 24-21, but played very well in Buffalo. The Patriots dropped to 2-6 in one-score games, including two overtime losses.
Pick ATS: Los Angeles
Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals, Saturday
Arguably the most important game of the weekend. Denver gets a wild-card spot with a win and would eliminate Cincinnati among a few teams – the Bengals have to win out and have the Broncos lose out among a couple of other results. Joe Burrow set an NFL record in Sunday’s 24-6 win over Cleveland with his seventh straight game of at least 275 yards passing and three scores. He’s playing at an MVP level but won’t win it due to Cincy’s record. The Broncos blew a 24-13 third-quarter lead at the Chargers on Thursday in Week 16 and lost 34-27 to drop to 1-6 this year vs. teams currently with a winning mark.
Pick ATS: Cincinnati (alternate line of -3)
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams, Saturday
Arizona was eliminated from playoff contention with Sunday’s 36-30 OT loss in Carolina. The Cards had been 5-0 this year against teams at .500 or worse. Los Angeles controls its destiny to win the NFC West after a fourth straight victory Sunday, 19-9 at the Jets. L.A. has allowed fewer than 10 points in back-to-back games for first time since 2015. The Rams played arguably their worst game of the season in Week 2, a 41-10 loss at Arizona as Kyler Murray had three TD passes, two to rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
Pick ATS: Los Angeles
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
The only shot AFC East champion Buffalo has of earning the AFC’s top seed is by winning out and Kansas City losing out. On Sunday, the Bills extended their home winning streak to 10 games but had their single-season NFL record-tying run of scoring 30 or more points end at eight straight games in a 27-24 comeback win over New England. Buffalo has now won 16 straight regular-season games in Week 15 or later, the longest streak in NFL history. The Jets’ awful season continued in a 19-9 home loss to the Rams, New York’s NFL-high sixth loss in 2024 when leading in the fourth quarter. The Jets played well in Week 7 at home vs. Buffalo, losing 23-20 on a Monday night. Josh Allen threw for two scores and rushed for a third. Normally reliable kicker Greg Zuerlein missed two potential go-ahead field goals for the Jets, hitting the left upright on both.
Pick ATS: New York (alternate line of +10)
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Huge in the NFC North and wild-card race – both have clinched a playoff spot. Minnesota would own a crucial tiebreaker with a victory as it won in Green Bay, 31-29, in Week 4 – but nearly blew a 28-7 fourth-quarter lead. Sam Darnold had three TD passes for the Vikes and Jordan Love four for the Packers. The Vikings stayed tied atop the NFC North with Detroit thanks to Sunday’s 27-24 win in Seattle, Minnesota’s eighth straight win. It would win the division and earn the NFC’s top seed by winning out. Green Bay clinched a playoff spot with Monday night’s blowout of New Orleans as tailback Josh Jacobs rushed for at least one score in a sixth straight game. But, the Packers may have lost starting WR Christian Watson to a knee injury.
Pick ATS: Minnesota
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints
Two bad teams playing out the string that will each likely look a lot different next season. The Raiders probably blew their chance to pick first overall in the 2025 NFL Draft by snapping a 10-game losing streak with a 19-14 home win over Jacksonville on Sunday. Tight end Brock Bowers continued his historic rookie year with 11 catches for 99 yard and already has or will break every rookie NFL receiving mark at the position. The Saints played without their No. 1 quarterback, running back and receiver in Monday in Green Bay and were blown out 34-0. None of those guys are likely back here with nothing to play for.
Pick ATS: Las Vegas
Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants
The Colts kept their slim AFC wild-card hopes alive with a 38-30 home win over Tennessee behind 218 yards rushing from Jonathan Taylor. Indy had a franchise 335 yards on the ground with QB Anthony Richardson attempting just 11 passes. The Colts must win out and get a lot of help to get in the postseason. The Giants had a great day Sunday. Sure, they lost their team-record 10th straight game, 34-7 in Atlanta, but the Raiders won so now New York is in terrific shape to pick first overall in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Pick ATS: New York
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carolina continued its late-season surge with a 36-30 overtime win over Arizona on Sunday to eliminate the Cardinals from playoff contention. Canadian tailback Chuba Hubbard had one of the games of his career with 152 yards and two scores on the ground, including the winning 21-yard run in OT. The Bucs were upset in Dallas on Sunday night and slipped into a first-place tie in the NFC South with Atlanta, which wins the tiebreaker. Tampa Bay tries for another season sweep as it escaped at Carolina in Week 13, 26-23 in overtime. Chase McLaughlin sent the game into OT for the Bucs with a 51-yard field goal as time expired in regulation and won it with a 30-yard kick with 2:50 to go in OT. Bryce Young actually outplayed Baker Mayfield that day.
Pick ATS: Carolina
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
The only thing at stake here is potentially better draft position for the loser. Jacksonville won ugly in Nashville just three weeks ago, 10-6. All 10 Jags points were in the fourth quarter. The Titans had two late chances to win but couldn’t cash in. Both teams continued their losing ways Sunday. Tennessee was gashed for 335 yards rushing in a 38-30 loss in Indianapolis, its fourth loss in a row. Jacksonville lost 19-14 in Las Vegas. That’s nine losses by seven points or fewer this season, tied for the most in an NFL season ever.
Pick ATS: Jacksonville
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns
Miami is still alive for the playoffs after Sunday’s 29-17 home win over San Francisco but has to win out and get help to get in. All-Pro Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill’s inconsistent season continued as he caught only three of seven targets for 29 yards and a touchdown, with drops on the first two drives of the game and another on a potential touchdown in the third. Hill has been playing through an injury and surely will be shut down if the Fins are eliminated. Cleveland gave second-year QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson his first start of the season Sunday and he struggled mightily in a 24-6 loss in Cincinnati. DTR will keep the gig this week if healthy.
Pick ATS: Cleveland (alternate line of +7)
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
Dallas was eliminated from the playoffs in Week 16 but is playing much better of late as it upset Tampa Bay on Sunday to win for the fourth time in five games. The Cowboys were outgained by 93 yards, had 10 fewer first downs and had the ball for 5 minutes, 36 seconds less than the NFC South-leading Buccaneers yet still managed to win. The Eagles had their 10-game winning streak snapped in a 36-33 loss at Washington that probably cost Philly a shot at the NFC’s No. 1 seed, but it already had clinched the NFC East. Starting QB Jalen Hurts left early with a possible concussion and then backup Kenny Pickett also left injured. Philadelphia easily won in Dallas in Week 10 by a score of 34-6 as the Cowboys managed just 146 yards and turned it over five times. Hurts totaled four TDs for the Eagles.
Pick ATS: Dallas (alternate line of +10)
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders
Flexed to Sunday night in place of Dolphins-Browns, which absolutely should not have been shown in primetime. Atlanta had a great Sunday as rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. made his first career NFL start and led an easy 34-7 win over the Giants. No question Penix is the guy going forward barring injury. The Falcons also caught a major break later Sunday with Tampa Bay losing so now Atlanta is back in control of its destiny to win the NFC South. Washington rallied for a last-second 36-33 win over Philadelphia but really that didn’t change much as the Commanders can’t win the NFC East and will be a wild-card team. Jayden Daniels did lock up the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award, though, with five TD passes.
Pick ATS: Atlanta
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers, Monday
Same matchup and location as last season’s NFC Championship Game, won by the 49ers, 34-31, despite trailing 24-7 in the third quarter. It was only the fourth comeback win in league history from 17 points down or more in a conference title game. I expect Detroit to get back there this season and host it, but San Francisco will not be in the postseason as it was eliminated Sunday. The Lions won easily in Chicago on Sunday and remain in control of their destiny to capture the NFC North title and the conference’s top seed.
Pick ATS: Detroit (alternate line of -3)