You read that right –  the Kansas City Chiefs are the absolute worst bet in the NFL.

But before you start throwing Swiftie bracelets at me and waving Super Bowl banners around, I urge you to live in the now. It’s a fun place where, as the Chiefs are running away with the AFC West crown again, they’ve also dropped seven consecutive games against the spread (ATS) and own a season ATS record of 5-7 heading into Week 15’s matchup with the Cleveland Browns. And yes, you’ll find the visiting Chiefs favoured again on this week’s NFL odds board at -4.

Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns

Granted, on one hand, you can look at this matchup and see it as a mismatch. The Browns are 3-10 and don’t have much to play for aside from pride, while the Chiefs are a superior team on paper and have an opportunity to lock up the division with a victory. Right now, about 72 per cent of bettors are taking the Chiefs, but this is a team that’s showing some worrying signs.

First off, they haven’t won a game by more than three points in more than a month and that was a 30-24 overtime win over Tampa Bay in Week 8 that easily could have gone the other way. That was just one of a handful of close calls they’ve had recently. On the year they’ve won 10 games by seven or fewer points.

More stats? How about the fact that they’ve been held to fewer than 20 points in three of their last five and are scoring 23.1 points per game on the year, which is good for 13^th overall. They also rush for just 110 yards per game (21^st overall).

Kansas City Chiefs Injury Issues

To be fair, while the Chiefs have certainly had a lot of breaks fall their way, they’ve also had plenty of injuries to deal with. Veteran kicker Harrison Butker‘s knee injury has had the club searching high and low for a reliable boot and wide receiver Rashee Rice’s absence has been a big loss. Plus, wideout Marquise Brown hasn’t played a snap since pre-season. The Chiefs are hopeful Butker can sort out the kicking game if he’s able to return in the next week or two but betting this team still feels like a blindfolded 40-yard dash into oncoming traffic.

NFL Injury Report

Patrick Mahomes Blasts Chiefs’ Schedule

Part of that has to do with the Chiefs’ schedule. Kansas City will close out the regular season with three games in 11 days, which doesn’t even seem safe to begin with. After this weekend’s tilt in Cleveland, the Chiefs host the Houston Texans on Saturday, Dec. 21, and then a date with the Steelers in Pittsburgh on Christmas Day. So, the Chiefs aren’t exactly thrilled about it and you can understand why.

“It’s not a good feeling,” quarterback Patrick Mahomes said Wednesday. “You never want to play this amount of games in this short of time. It’s not great for your body. But at the end of the day it’s your job, your profession, you have to come to work and do it.”

Chiefs, Taylor Swift and the Super Bowl Effect

Being one of the most popular teams in the NFL that is eyeing a third consecutive Lombardi Trophy has its perks, but it also means the league is going to expect you to play special dates on the calendar – whether you like it or not. The high profile isn’t good for a squad’s betting supporters either. The Chiefs are seeing inflated lines every week and have been since the beginning of last season. That doesn’t make it easier to cash a Chiefs bet.

You can thank Taylor Swift partly for that, too. Public bettors are a fickle bunch and the more you see Swift prancing around with Chiefs gear on, the higher you’re going to pay for any of your Kansas City bets, including that ticket you might be holding for a K.C. three-peat. For what it’s worth, the Chiefs are holding at +450 on the Super Bowl odds board, just behind the Detroit Lions.

So if you’re still all in on the Chiefs bandwagon, there are plenty of places to get your NFL bets in. Just don’t say I didn’t warn you.