NFL Week 15 Odds and Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread
We are now down to just four weeks remaining in the NFL regular-season slate, and all the bye weeks are finished. One slight difference this week is a Monday night doubleheader.
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers, Thursday
Big game in the NFC West with the Niners as one of the NFL’s disappointments, but they have been shredded by injuries and did snap a three-game skid Sunday with a 38-13 home rout of Chicago. The Niners’ top two running backs were lost for the season the previous week, so rookie Isaac Guerendo was the featured back against the Bears and rushed for 78 yards and two scores but injured his foot. The Rams slowed the red-hot Bills on Sunday with a wild 44-42 win. It was L.A’s most points in a victory since 2018. In Week 3, Los Angeles beat visiting San Francisco on a 37-yard field goal in the final seconds despite trailing 24-14 with about six minutes left.
Pick ATS: San Francisco
Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns
Cleveland’s overall roster isn’t that much less talented than Kansas City’s, but the Chiefs have the NFL’s best quarterback and probably best coach, so there’s your difference between a two-time defending Super Bowl champion and one of the league’s worst teams. I honestly don’t rule out an upset here … as long as the Browns play better than they did Sunday in a 27-14 loss in Pittsburgh. Jameis Winston threw two more interceptions. Kansas City might be the luckiest team in NFL history as they were incredibly fortunate to win again Sunday, 19-17 over the Chargers, when a last-second field goal for the Chiefs doinked off the upright and through. Kansas City now has 10 wins this season by between 1-7 points, the most by any NFL team through 13 games in history.
Pick ATS: Cleveland
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans
It’s a short week for Cincinnati after a 27-20 win in Dallas on Monday night. The Bengals recovered a muffed Cowboys punt late that led to the go-ahead touchdown. Joe Burrow threw for 369 yards and three scores for his fifth straight game with at least 250 passing yards and three TDs. That’s tied for the second-longest such streak in the league since the merger. Tennessee had been playing better of late and wasn’t eliminated from playoff contention, but that ended Sunday in an ugly 10-6 home loss to Jacksonville. That’s 20 points or fewer scored for the Titans in eight of their past nine games.
Pick ATS: Cincinnati
Washington Commanders at New Orleans Saints
Washington comes out of its bye week in very good position for an NFC wild-card spot as one of the league’s top surprises and QB Jayden Daniels as the -275 favourite to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Dan Quinn will get some votes for NFL Coach of the Year. The Saints aren’t out of NFC playoff contention yet at 5-8 especially as it might only take eight wins to capture their NFC South. However, starting QB Derek Carr injured his hand in Sunday’s 14-11 win at the Giants and also might have suffered a concussion, so he’s in doubt this week.
Pick ATS: New Orleans
Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants
Baltimore remains my pick to win the AFC even though it’s now looking like the Ravens will have to get to the Super Bowl as a wild-card team two games back of first-place Pittsburgh in the AFC North. QB Lamar Jackson was favoured at times this season to repeat as NFL MVP, but he’s now +1000 and would need a huge final few games to win it a third time career. The Giants are truly a disaster and lost an eighth straight game Sunday, 14-11 at home to New Orleans. Starting QB Drew Lock came out of that a big banged up but will remain the starter if healthy this week. New York also has lost seven in a row at home. I personally can’t justify giving an NFL home team more than two TDs at home, though.
Pick ATS: New York
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers
Short week for Dallas off a 27-20 home loss to Cincinnati on Monday to see the Cowboys’ two-game winning streak snapped. They were also eliminated from the NFC East race. Rico Dowdle had a career-high 131 rushing yards in the loss, his second straight 100-yard game after none in his first 46. Carolina has been a completely different team since Week 9, and while the Panthers lost their third straight Sunday it was only 22-16 at red-hot Philadelphia. That’s five straight one-possession games for Carolina and a 5-0 ATS mark (2-3 SU). Canadian running back Chuba Hubbard reached 1,000 yards rushing in a season for the first time for the Panthers.
Pick ATS: Dallas
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jets find inventive ways to lose every week and did it again Sunday in Miami as they dropped a fourth in a row 32-26 in overtime, to be eliminated from playoff contention. New York had taken a 26-23 lead with 52 seconds left in regulation. Aaron Rodgers was a bright spot with his first 300-yard passing game as a Jet and in nearly three years. Jacksonville ended a five-game skid with an ugly 10-6 win at Tennessee on Sunday, but that victory may have cost the Jags a shot at the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Pick ATS: New York (alternate line of -3)
Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans
Could be a first-round AFC playoff preview. Miami kept its wild-card hopes alive with a 32-26 overtime comeback win over the Jets on Sunday. The Dolphins tied it on a 52-yard field goal in the final seconds of regulation and then got the ball first in OT and drove right down the field for the winning TD. Tua Tagovailoa became the first Miami QB since the merger with four straight games of at least two touchdown passes and no picks. Houston comes out of its bye with a two-game lead atop the AFC South.
Pick ATS: Houston (alternate line of -2.5)
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
Two teams out of their bye weeks badly needing a win for their wild-card chances. The Colts would have almost no shot if they hadn’t rallied in the final seconds at New England for a 25-24 win in Week 13. Anthony Richardson continues to be wildly inaccurate as a passer but threw for two scores and rushed for a score as well as the winning 2-point PAT. Denver QB Bo Nix is a +180 second-favourite for Offensive Rookie of the Year with his team on a three-game winning streak. Nix had been terrific in avoiding turnovers but had two picks in the final game before the bye, a win over Cleveland.
Pick ATS: Denver
Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions
Potential Super Bowl preview, and I think would be the matchup if both get home-field advantage throughout their respective conference playoffs. Except Buffalo probably won’t get the AFC’s top seed after losing at the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday night, 44-42, in the highest-scoring game of the season. QB Josh Allen is now the -400 MVP favourite after becoming the second player in NFL history with at least three passing and three rushing TDs in a game – the other was Otto Graham in the 1954 NFL Championship Game. Detroit set a franchise record with its 11th straight win on Thursday in Week 14, a wild 34-31 victory over Green Bay. The Lions are the first team to win 11 straight games within a season since the 2020 Steelers. First team to 50 might win this one.
Pick ATS: Detroit
Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles
Another potential Super Bowl preview – wouldn’t that be something for the football-crazy state of Pennsylvania? Both are most likely winning their respective divisions; Philadelphia has clinched the NFC East after a ninth straight win Sunday, 22-16 over Carolina and with the Cowboys losing on Monday night. The last time the Eagles won nine straight games, they won their only Super Bowl in the 2017 season. Pittsburgh played without top WR George Pickens on Sunday (not expected back this week) but won in Cleveland 27-14 and is two games up in the AFC North.
Pick ATS: Pittsburgh
New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals
Any chance Arizona had of winning the NFC West title went out the window on Sunday when it was beaten 30-18 at home by Seattle and swept in the season series. Kyler Murray had two early picks that were both turned into touchdowns by the Seahawks. After winning four straight games and averaging 26.3 points during the run, the Cards are averaging 15.3 PPG in a three-game skid. New England comes out of its bye on a three-game skid, and it frankly benefits the rebuilding Patriots to lose out.
Pick ATS: New England
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Chargers
The Bucs have retaken the NFC South lead following a third straight win Sunday, 28-13 over Las Vegas. However, All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. suffered a knee sprain and will miss at least a few games. In addition, rookie running back Bucky Irving’s back tightened up Sunday and his status is TBA. Irving leads the Buccaneers and all NFL rookies with 1,035 scrimmage yards. The Chargers nearly upset the Chiefs in Kansas City on Sunday night but lost 19-17 on a last-second field goal. Stellar rookie WR Ladd McConkey missed his first game and QB Justin Herbert injured his leg, but neither is serious and both are likely to play against Tampa Bay.
Pick ATS: Los Angeles
Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday night matchup and very important in the NFC playoff race. In fact, were the postseason to start today, Green Bay would be the sixth seed as a wild-card team and visit third-seeded and NFC West champion Seattle in the first round. The Seahawks are in control of the division for now after a fourth straight win Sunday, 30-18 in Arizona, despite playing without No. 1 running back Kenneth Walker III. Green Bay was a last-second loser in Detroit last Thursday, 34-31, to see a three-game winning streak end and also end any NFC North title hopes for the Pack.
Pick ATS: Seattle (alternate line of +3.5)
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings, Monday
First MNF game kicks at 8 p.m. with the Vikings trying for the season sweep as they won 30-27 in overtime in Chicago in Week 12. The Bears staged one of their most unlikely comebacks in franchise history just to get to OT, but then the Vikes won it on a 29-yard field goal with 2:10 left in OT. The Bears still haven’t won a game since that season-wrecking Hail Mary loss at Washington in Week 8. On Sunday, they played their first game since firing head coach Matt Eberflus and were blown out 38-13 in San Francisco. This team has quit. Minnesota stayed just a game behind Detroit in the NFC North with a sixth straight win Sunday, 42-21 over Atlanta. Sam Darnold had the game of his career with 347 yards passing and five scores.
Pick ATS: Minnesota (alternate line of -6.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Las Vegas Raiders, Monday
The second MNF game at 8:30 p.m. ET. Both teams have major quarterback issues. Atlanta apparently will stick with veteran Kirk Cousins despite a fourth straight loss Sunday, 42-21 at Minnesota, that knocked the Falcons out of first in the NFC South. Cousins now has zero TD passes and eight picks during that skid, but rookie Michael Penix Jr. will remain on the bench. The Raiders already lost one QB to injury this year in Gardner Minshew and now Aidan O’Connell is in question after suffering a bone bruise in his knee in Sunday’s double-digit loss in Tampa. Desmond Ridder, a 2022 third-round pick of the Falcons, could be in line to start Monday. He was traded this offseason.
Pick ATS: Atlanta