NFL Week 14 Odds Report: Will Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence Actually Play?

Ever wondered if an NFL head coach makes a difference in terms of a spread? On Wednesday, Dallas Cowboys coach and offensive play-caller Mike McCarthy had emergency surgery to have his appendix removed. Obviously not ideal that the guy who runs that high-powered unit isn’t at practice for much of this week, but he will be on the sideline Sunday for a huge game vs. Philadelphia. McCarthy’s absence has not affected the odds. Here are three Week 14 games with some movement.

Jaguars at Browns (-1.5 to -3.5)

This probably is the most in-flux spread of the week because it largely depends on Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence. He suffered a high-ankle sprain on Monday night in the shocking loss to Cincinnati that really crippled the Jags’ chances of getting the AFC’s top seed. Guys don’t return from high-ankle sprains in two weeks much less six days, but Lawrence actually was at practice Thursday. Do I tend to think this is some gamesmanship by the Jacksonville coaching staff? Definitely do. You can’t risk the future of the franchise even as important a win would be. My point being that this jumped because it was widely assumed Lawrence had no shot of playing – and the Browns were taking a lot of early-week money — but it might start shifting back if there’s actually a possibility.

Lawrence’s backup, CJ Beathard, missed some practice this week but is ready. We do know the Jags are without wideout Christian Kirk (57 catches, 787 yards, three TDs). As of this writing, it’s not clear whether Joe Flacco or rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson will start for Cleveland under centre but I’m not sure it matters that much at least when it comes to the spread. Sounds like it will be Flacco with DTR still dealing with concussion issues. This is the NFL right now: CJ Beathard vs. Joe Flacco. 

Texans at Jets (+6 to +3.5)

The New York Jets know all about quarterback problems and let’s make it clear now: If the Jets don’t pull the upset here to snap a five-game skid, Aaron Rodgers is not returning this season for a team at 4-10, which it almost surely will be with a loss to Houston because next week, Gang Green is not winning at Miami. A-Rod’s hope is to be back on Christmas Eve vs. Washington. It’s back to Zach Wilson for the Jets amid a report earlier this week he was reluctant to start again for fear of getting injured – you can do a lot of things in the NFL and keep the respect of your teammates and peers, but not that. The Jets vehemently denied it and even Rodgers came to Wilson’s defence, but the reporters have stuck by their story and there’s surely someone in the organization who did leak something.

As bad as Wilson has been, he is the team’s best possible hope right now over the likes of Tim Boyle (since cut), Trevor Siemian and Brett Rypien. Wilson at least can make some plays with his feet. That’s largely why this dropped but also could be that casual fans are leaning the Texans lost star WR Tank Dell to a season-ending injury last Sunday and that Houston is winless ATS this season against teams with losing records.  

Vikings at Raiders (+1.5 to +3)

Again, some spreads move late simply because the casual fan isn’t betting first thing Monday morning. We all knew that the Vikings would get superstar wideout and 2022 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Justin Jefferson back this week, but it was made official a few days ago. Jefferson has said he feels just as explosive as before he suffered the hamstring injury that sent him to IR. He is averaging 114.2 receiving yards per game, second in the league. What most bettors were waiting on was which quarterback would start out of the Vikings’ bye. Joshua Dobbs was a godsend in his first few starts but a turnover machine in the past two. Really, though, Coach Kevin O’Connell had nowhere else to turn. Dobbs and Jefferson haven’t played together yet. Somehow, Minnesota is 1-4 with Jefferson this year and 5-2 without. Can’t say I recommend that to wager a prop that either team wins by 10+ points because Minnesota has played 22 games decided by one possession since start of last season, most in the NFL.