NFL Week 14 Odds and Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread
We have officially reached the stretch run of the NFL regular season past the American Thanksgiving holiday, but there is one more week of byes and it’s a long list: Baltimore, Denver, Houston, Indianapolis, Washington and New England.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions, Thursday
Second straight Thursday game for both after each won at home on the American Thanksgiving holiday. The Lions were somewhat lucky to do so, nearly a blowing a big lead vs. Chicago. Their 10-game winning streak is tied for the longest in franchise history. The Packers have now won seven of eight. The Lions try for the season sweep as they won 24-14 in Green Bay in Week 9. Kerby Joseph scored on a 27-yard interception return, and the Lions converted two fourth downs into touchdowns.
Pick ATS: Detroit (alternate line of -2.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
It’s the first meeting of the season between AFC South rivals going nowhere. The Jaguars came out of their bye on Sunday and got back QB Trevor Lawrence from a two-game injury absence, but he was on the wrong side of a dirty hit vs. Houston and suffered a concussion. I rather doubt we see Lawrence again in this lost season. The Titans were blasted on Sunday at Washington, 42-19. Tennessee WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine had his eighth receiving TD in the past eight games. His eight total TD grabs this year have come on just 20 total catches.
Pick ATS: Tennessee (alternate line of -3)
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
These teams will play again in Week 18, perhaps the final NFL game for New York’s Aaron Rodgers. The Jets lost at home to the Seahawks on Sunday, 26-21, as Rodgers had a devastating 92-yard pick-six when New York was about to take a 28-7 lead. He had been 74-0 career in home games when leading by at least 14 points in a game. The loss clinched the Jets’ ninth straight losing season, extending the longest active drought in the NFL. Miami’s wild-card hopes took a major hit with a 30-17 loss in Green Bay on American Thanksgiving night, but then Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa never wins in below-freezing weather. That won’t be a problem this week.
Pick ATS: Miami
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings
Potential first-round NFC playoff preview. Atlanta was in charge of the NFC North not long ago at 6-3 but lost its third straight game Sunday, 17-10 at home vs. the Chargers despite dominating statistically as Falcons QB Kirk Cousins had four crushing interceptions and now has zero pass TDs and six picks during the skid. However, the team will not turn to rookie first-round pick Michael Penix Jr. under centre. The Vikings improved to 7-1 this season in one-score games and 8-0 when the have at least two takeaways by rallying for a late 24-23 win over Arizona on Sunday.
Pick ATS: Minnesota
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants
Two teams playing out the string that likely have new head coaches and starting quarterbacks in 2025. For sure the Saints will have a new coach and the Giants a new QB. Although, maybe New Orleans has its next full-time head coach already in place as the team has played well under interim coach Darren Rizzi, falling to 2-1 with Sunday’s 21-14 home loss to the Rams. It was the 92nd career loss for QB Derek Carr, passing former Saint Archie Manning for most by a QB in his first 11 seasons in NFL history. New York lost its seventh straight game on Thursday in Week 13, 27-20 in Dallas, has been eliminated from playoff contention and is on track for the top pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Pick ATS: New York
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles
Carolina played really well for a fourth straight game on Sunday but came up short at home vs. Tampa Bay, 26-23 in overtime. Now there’s no question that Bryce Young remains the Panthers’ QB of the future as he has looked so much better in that stretch. Carolina probably wins Sunday in OT if running back and Edmonton native Chuba Hubbard doesn’t lose a fumble. Philadelphia improved to 8-0 out of its Week 5 bye with an incredibly impressive 24-19 win in Baltimore on Sunday in a possible Super Bowl preview. Tailback Saquon Barkley is going to win Offensive Player of the Year after another big game with 107 yards and the clinching TD on the ground.
Pick ATS: Carolina
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
If Pittsburgh loses out on winning the AFC North by a game, circle its 24-19 Week 12 loss in Cleveland in the snow. Nick Chubb ran for two scores, including the winner with just under a minute to go. But the Steelers bounced back with a 44-38 win in Cincinnati on Sunday behind a season-high 414 yards and three TDs from Russell Wilson. That clinched a 21st straight season without a losing record, tying the 1965-85 Cowboys for the longest streak in NFL history. It’s a short week for Cleveland after losing 41-32 in Denver on Monday. QB Jameis Winston had one of the most unusual games in NFL history with a franchise-record 497 yards passing to go with four TDs but also three picks – including two returned for touchdowns.
Pick ATS: Pittsburgh
Las Vegas Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Pirate Bowl! The Raiders are playing out the string and could get the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft if they lose out and the Giants win a game. Las Vegas lost its eighth straight game on Friday in Week 13, 19-17 in Kansas City, when the team flubbed a snap on the potential game-winning field goal try. Las Vegas didn’t score on five of seven drives to reach Kansas City territory with three missed field goals, a fumble and turnover on downs. The Bucs pulled back into a tie for first in the NFC South with their OT escape at Carolina on Sunday and Atlanta’s loss. Future Hall of Famer Mike Evans had the 101st receiving TD of his career, moving into ninth on the all-time list.
Pick ATS: Tampa Bay (alternate line of -6.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Seattle tries for the season sweep as it beat Arizona, 16-6, in Week 12. Neither team reached 300 yards of offence and both had one giveaway, but the Seahawks dominated time of possession. The Seahawks moved into solo first place in the AFC West with Sunday’s comeback win at the Jets and Arizona’s last-minute loss in Minnesota. During a three-game winning streak, Seattle is allowing just 14.7 PPG and it is now 6-1 in its past seven on the road. Arizona fell to 1-6 this season when QB Kyler Murray has one total TD or fewer in the 23-22 loss to the Vikings as Murray had one TD throw and also picked twice.
Pick ATS: Arizona (alternate line of -2.5)
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams
While the Eagles have been the NFC’s best team and unbeaten since Week 5, Buffalo has been the same in the AFC. It won a seventh straight game on Sunday, 35-10 over injury-ravaged San Francisco. Josh Allen might have wrapped up his first NFL MVP Award with two passing TDs, a rushing score and a receiving score as Buffalo clinched the AFC East. Allen became only the fourth player in league history to have a passing and receiving TD on the same play. The Rams were in a tricky spot Sunday in New Orleans but escaped 21-14 to keep their NFC West and wild-card hopes alive. Matthew Stafford had his 47th career game-winning drive to tie Dan Marino for the fifth-most all-time.
Pick ATS: Los Angeles
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers
The Bears nearly stormed all the way back from a 23-7 fourth-quarter lead in Detroit on Thanksgiving in Week 13 and were in position for at worst a tying field goal attempt at the end of regulation. However, unprecedented stupidity by head coach Matt Eberflus led to the Bears not even getting a field-goal attempt in the 23-20 loss. Eberflus was fired the next day as he should have been. Offensive coordinator Thomas Brown is the interim HC. The Niners’ disastrous season got worse Sunday as not only did they lose a third straight game, 35-10 in Buffalo to fall to 5-7, but superstar Christian McCaffrey likely suffered a season-ending injury. This just isn’t San Francisco’s year.
Pick ATS: San Francisco (alternate line of -3)
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday night game. The Chiefs look for the season sweep as they won 17-10 in Los Angeles in Week 4, rallying from a 10-0 second-quarter deficit. Kansas City has won the past six in the series, but they usually are very competitive. Another win here earns the Chiefs their ninth straight AFC West title and keeps them atop the entire conference standings. Kansas City got its NFL-record 14th straight win in a one-possession game Sunday, 19-17 over the Raiders when Las Vegas botched a potential winning field-goal try. The Chargers were dominated in Atlanta but won thanks to picking off four Kirk Cousins passes, and the Bolts’ Justin Herbert became the sixth QB in league history with 10 straight starts without an INT.
Pick ATS: Los Angeles
Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys, Monday
Likely no chance that the Cowboys are ever going to be flexed out of primetime no matter how bad they are because of how popular they are. Dallas has looked better with back-to-back wins and technically isn’t out of the NFC wild-card race but would probably have to win four of its final five at worst. The Cowboys snapped a six-game home losing streak (including playoffs) with their 27-20 win over the Giants on Thanksgiving. The Bengals have scored 34, 27 and 38 points in their past three games and have lost all of them. Joe Burrow is having an MVP-calibre season, but Cincinnati’s defence is atrocious. There will be no playoffs this year barring winning out and even that might not do it.
Pick ATS: Dallas