NFL Week 13 Odds and Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread

There are three games on the American Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, another on Black Friday and then the usual Sunday and Monday games with no teams on the bye. Here’s a look at all Week 13 games with NFL odds and played Sunday unless noted.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions, Thursday

This is the first American Thanksgiving kick at 12:30 and first meeting of the season between NFC North rivals – they have met quite often over the years on this holiday. Chicago simply hasn’t been the same since losing on a Hail Mary in Week 8 and enters on a five-game skid. But rookie QB Caleb Williams played perhaps his best game of the season in Sunday’s OT loss to the Vikings. At 10-1, Detroit is off to its best 11-game start since 1934 and has its longest winning streak within a season (nine) since 1934. Tailback David Montgomery, a former Bear, left Sunday’s win over Indy injured but says he’s playing Thursday. 

Pick ATS: Chicago

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys, Thursday

Easily the worst matchup on Thursday (4:30 ET kick) as NFL fans will likely be treated to a rather forgettable quarterback matchup of Tommy DeVito and Cooper Rush because both teams’ starting QBs are either out due to injury (Dallas’ Dak Prescott) or have been released (New York’s Daniel Jones). Dallas snapped a five-game skid with Sunday’s shocking 34-26 win at Washington behind 247 yards and two TDs passing from Rush. New York lost its sixth straight game Sunday, 30-7 to Tampa Bay. DeVito threw for only 189 yards but at least didn’t turn it over. The Cowboys try for the season sweep as they won 20-15 at the Giants also on a Thursday in Week 4 when both usual starting QBs were in there.  

Pick ATS: Dallas

Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers, Thursday

The Dolphins probably were praying when the NFL schedule was released that their trip to Green Bay would be early in the season to avoid potential wintry weather. Let’s just say it won’t be very warm with an 8:20 ET kickoff but snow isn’t in the forecast. Miami kept its wild-card hopes alive with a third straight win Sunday, 34-15 over the Patriots behind four TD passes from Tua Tagovailoa, but he personally has a terrible record in outdoor cold-weather games. Green Bay routed visiting San Francisco behind three Josh Jacobs TD runs and has won six of its past seven. 

Pick ATS: Green Bay (alternate line of -3)

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs, Friday

The NFL’s first-ever Black Friday game streamed on Amazon Prime Video in 2023 and was a huge success, and it’s clearly here to stay. The Chiefs eye the season sweep as they won at the Raiders, 27-20, in Week 8. Las Vegas is an utter train wreck at this point and will have to make another change at QB with Gardner Minshew suffering a season-ending injury in Sunday’s loss to Denver. Desmond Ridder relieved him and probably starts in this one, but fellow QB Aidan O’Connell will be activated off the IR. The Chiefs clearly took the awful Panthers for granted on Sunday and needed a last-second field goal to escape, 30-27. Kansas City has now allowed at least 27 points in back-to-back games after none in the first nine this year. 

Pick ATS: Las Vegas

Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons appear to have a mammoth edge here simply as they are coming off a bye week while the Chargers are on a short week having lost 30-23 on Monday at home vs. Baltimore and now have to travel across country for one of those 10 a.m. Pacific time kickoffs. That Los Angeles defence hadn’t allowed more than 20 points all season but has now done so in back-to-back games. The bye perhaps came at a good time for NFC South-leading Atlanta as it entered off back-to-back ugly offensive losses.

Pick ATS: Atlanta

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati comes out of its bye in dire playoff straits at 4-7 despite QB Joe Burrow having an MVP-calibre season and WR Ja’Marr Chase having an Offensive Player of the Year-type season. Six of the Bengals’ seven losses are by seven points or fewer. It’s their first look at the AFC North rival Steelers this year. Pittsburgh was upset by last-place Cleveland on Thursday in Week 12 to see a five-game winning streak snapped. It was also Russell Wilson’s first loss in five starts since taking over at QB. 

Pick ATS: Cincinnati (alternate line of -2.5)

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings

Potentially important in the NFC playoff race. Arizona is now tied for the NFC West lead after coming out of its bye and losing at Seattle on Sunday, 16-6, to see a four-game winning streak snapped. The Cards didn’t score a touchdown for the first time in 19 games. Minnesota is second in the NFC North and won at Chicago on Sunday, 30-27 in OT, despite blowing a 27-16 lead with less than 30 seconds to go in regulation. Sam Darnold became only the fourth Vikings QB in franchise history to start 9-2 or better with at least 20 passing TDs in the team’s first 11 games.

Pick ATS: Minnesota (alternate line of -3)

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

If the 5-7 Colts lose here, they can probably forget about the playoffs. They lost for a fourth time in five games on Sunday, 24-6 at home to Detroit. Anthony Richardson’s accuracy issues continued as he was just 11-for-28 passing, the second time in his past three starts he completed below 40 per cent. The Patriots were blown out Sunday in Miami, 34-15, as rookie QB Drake Maye had a pick and lost fumble and was sacked four times. New England’s 3-9 record is the team’s second-worst 12-game start in the past 30 years. 

Pick ATS: New England (alternate line of +3.5)

Seattle Seahawks at New York Jets

The Jets might go down as one of the biggest NFL disappointments in modern history with all that talent led by QB Aaron Rodgers. They are out of their bye at 3-8 and looking at a full makeover in the offseason. There’s almost no way Rodgers is back in 2025. Coach Robert Saleh was fired weeks ago and then GM Joe Douglas was during the bye. Seattle got a huge divisional win Sunday over Arizona, 16-6, to tie the Cards for first in the NFC West. 

Pick ATS: New York (alternate line of +3)

Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders

The Titans are not a good team but had been sneakily playing better of late and stunned the AFC North-leading Texans in Houston on Sunday, 32-27. Tennessee had been 0-6 this year in games where starting QB Will Levis finished. He looked good Sunday other than a pick-six, this NFL-leading third of the year. Washington had been regressing a bit of late and was shocked at home by Dallas on Sunday, 34-26, for a third straight loss. The Commanders aren’t winning the NFC East now. Rookie of the Year favourite Jayden Daniels had the first two-INT game of his NFL career. 

Pick ATS: Washington

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars are probably the AFC’s second-biggest disappointments after the Jets and somewhat surprisingly didn’t fire Coach Doug Pederson during the bye, but he is most likely gone after the season. Starting QB Trevor Lawrence missed the past two games injured but might return. Houston had a chance to all but clinch the AFC North on Sunday but was upset at home by Tennessee to see a six-game winning streak inside the division snapped and despite eight sacks of Titans QBs and a pick-six touchdown. 

Pick ATS: Jacksonville

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints

The Saints are out of their bye going nowhere at 4-7, already fired their coach and also looking at a reboot this offseason. That said, the team has played much better under interim coach Darren Rizzi with back-to-back home wins.  The Rams’ playoff hopes took a hit when they were dominated on Sunday night at home in a 37-20 loss to Philadelphia. Los Angeles allowed nearly 500 yards, including an incredible 314 on the ground. 

Pick ATS: New Orleans (alternate line of +3.5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

It’s the first meeting between NFC South rivals this season, and the Bucs swept in 2023. Tampa Bay came out of its bye and dominated Sunday at the Giants, 30-7 to snap a four-game skid. Future Hall of Fame receiver Mike Evans played for the first time since Week 7 off injury and had five catches for 68 yards. The Bucs also had four different players score a rushing TD for the first time in team history. Carolina came out of its bye and nearly shocked Kansas City but lost 30-27 on a late-minute field goal. But former No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young looked like a legitimate NFL quarterback again, so he’ll certainly finish the season as the starter barring injury. 

Pick ATS: Tampa Bay

Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens

Could be a Super Bowl preview but disadvantage for the Ravens being on a short week after a 30-23 win at the Chargers on Monday night to close Week 12 as Lamar Jackson improved to 18-4 after a loss in his NFL career. Pro Bowl linebacker Roquan Smith missed it with an injury but good chance he’s back for this one as he tried to warm up and play. Philadelphia won its seventh straight game on Sunday night, 37-20 at the Rams as Saquon Barkley had one of the great games in NFL history for a running back with 26 carries for 255 yards and two scores to vault himself into the MVP conversation. 

Pick ATS: Baltimore

San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills

Sunday night game and another possible Super Bowl preview. Buffalo comes out of its bye atop the AFC East at 9-2 and very much alive for the AFC’s top seed after knocking off unbeaten Kansas City 30-21 in Week 11 for a sixth straight win. I believe QB Josh Allen won his first NFL MVP Award in that game thanks to his epic 26-yard TD run on fourth down with just over two minutes left to clinch it. San Francisco was down many key injured players led by Pro Bowlers in QB Brock Purdy, left tackle Brock Purdy and pass-rusher Nick Bosa on Sunday and was clobbered in Green Bay. Too early to know on them for this one, but Purdy was hopeful. 

Pick ATS: Buffalo

Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos, Monday

The NFL would rather not flex Monday night games because it is a logistical problem, and that has to be the only reason why this was kept in primetime. Denver is potential AFC wild-card team, but Cleveland might be the conference’s worst club. That said, the Browns come off a home primetime upset of AFC North  leading Pittsburgh on Thursday in Week 12, 24-19. Nick Chubb rushed for two scores, including the winner in the final minute. Denver won 29-19 at Las Vegas on Sunday to move to 6-0 this year vs. .500 or below clubs this year compared to 1-5 vs. teams with a winning record. Bo Nix is up to a franchise rookie record 16 TD passes after two more on Sunday, and he’s right in the Offensive Rookie of the Year race.

Pick ATS: Denver