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NFL Week 12 Player Props and Predictions: American Thanksgiving Triple-header

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Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions: Go with Goff

The Thanksgiving Day game has been Detroit’s Super Bowl since 1934 and we expect them to play like it on Thursday. As with any team, the Lions’ success will come down to their quarterback. Jared Goff has had a lot of success against Green Bay in his career, going 5-1 against the Packers. That’s the third-best win percentage by a starting quarterback against Green Bay since 1950.

We like the passing yards prop for Goff in Week 12. He’s averaging 274.3 passing yards per game this season and he’s finished with more than 252.5 passing yards in six of 10 games. Goff did end up throwing three interceptions last week against Chicago, but it was his first multi-interception game of the season and he tends to generally bounce back with a big game following a poor performance.

NFL Week 12 Prediction: Jared Goff Over 252.5 passing yards (-120)

Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys: Don’t pass on Prescott

America’s Team is a staple of Turkey Day football and this year’s edition features a Cowboys team that is demolishing opponents at home this season. Dallas is 4-0 at AT&T Stadium in 2023 thanks in large part to quarterback Dak Prescott, who is averaging over 300 passing yards per game in Texas.

We’re going with scoring props in this one. Prescott has a 9-2 career record against Washington with 19 touchdowns and just four interceptions. He’s also already beaten the Commanders twice on Thanksgiving (2016, 2018), throwing for three TDs and no picks. Prescott has thrown multiple TDs in his last four games and he enters Week 12 tied for the third-most passing TDs on the season with 19.

NFL Week 12 Prediction: Dak Prescott Over 1.5 passing TDs (-200)

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: Smith, who?

The Niners would be a handful for Seattle any day, but it will be even tougher for the ‘Hawks in Week 12 as starting QB Geno Smith was injured in Sunday’s loss against the Rams. Smith is expected to play on Thursday, but he’s dealing with a triceps contusion. Even a healthy Smith is hard to back against San Francisco, so it’s tough to expect much from an injured Smith.

The Seahawks have dropped two of their last three games and Smith has thrown for less than 240.5 passing yards in both those losses. In fact, he’s only surpassed 240.5 passing yards in five of 11 games this season and most of those performances were against banged up squads like Washington and Cleveland.

NFL Week 12 Prediction: Geno Smith Under 240.5 passing yards (-115)