NFL Week 12 Odds and Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread
No teams are on the bye. Here’s a quick look at all Week 12 games, played Sunday unless noted.
Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions, Thursday
Per usual, the Lions host the first Thanksgiving game of the day and they are on their first three-game winning streak since 2017 (but haven’t won on the holiday in a handful of years). Jamaal Williams rushed for a career-high three TDs in Sunday’s 31-18 upset at the Giants and rather quietly leads the league with 12 rushing scores. The Super Bowl-favoured Bills snapped a two-game skid Sunday with a 31-23 win over Cleveland in Detroit – moved there because Buffalo was crushed by a snowstorm.
Pick ATS: Detroit
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys, Thursday
Dallas looks for the season sweep as it beat the Giants 23-16 on Monday night in Week 3 with backup Cooper Rush under centre. He threw for 215 yards and a score, and the Cowboys rushed for 176 yards. Saquon Barkley rushed for 81 yards and a TD in the loss. New York was upset on Sunday at home by Detroit, while Dallas played arguably its best game of the season with a 40-3 win at Minnesota. Tony Pollard had two touchdown catches with a career-high 189 yards from scrimmage.
Pick ATS: Dallas
New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings, Thursday
New England came out of its bye week and beat the Jets ugly on Sunday, 10-3. Patriots rookie Marcus Jones returned a punt 84 yards for a touchdown with five seconds remaining for the winning score – the first punt return in the NFL this season. Jones’ TD was the second-latest game-winning score on a punt return in regulation since 1970. The Vikings were embarrassed at home by Dallas 40-3 to see their seven-game winning streak end. Minnesota is 8-2 but has a negative point differential on the year.
Pick ATS: Minnesota (alternate line of -2.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns
Tampa Bay comes off its bye week first in the NFC South despite a 5-5 record. This will be the last game the Browns play without the suspended Deshaun Watson. They lost 31-23 to Buffalo in Detroit on Sunday despite 324 yards and three scores from Jacoby Brissett. Nick Chubb was held to 19 yards rushing on 14 carries.
Pick ATS: Tampa Bay (alternate line of -2.5)
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans
The Bengals went to Nashville in the divisional round of last season’s playoffs and upset the top-seeded Titans 19-16 thanks to three picks of Ryan Tannehill, including a late one that led to Evan McPherson’s 52-yard field goal as time expired. Somehow, Cincinnati won despite Joe Burrow being sacked nine times. Both teams won in Week 11.
Pick ATS: Tennessee
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins reportedly offered Tua Tagovailoa to the Texans this offseason in a package for Deshaun Watson, but Houston wasn’t interested in Tua. That now looks like a mistake. Miami comes off its bye with Tua playing like an MVP, on a four-game winning streak and atop the AFC East. The Texans lost a fifth straight game Sunday vs. Washington and clearly are the NFL’s worst team.
Pick ATS: Houston
Chicago Bears at New York Jets
Will the Bears have star QB Justin Fields? He reportedly suffered a dislocated shoulder in Sunday’s loss in Atlanta and there won’t be any word on whether he will play this week (or the rest of the season) until Wednesday at the earliest. The Jets lost 10-3 to the Patriots on Sunday, and Coach Robert Saleh wouldn’t commit to QB Zach Wilson remaining the starter going forward.
Pick ATS: New York
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders
The Falcons continue to stay in the NFC South race as they beat the Bears 27-24 on Sunday on a late 53-yard field goal. Atlanta’s Cordarrelle Patterson, who played for the Bears for two years before signing with the Falcons in 2021, set the NFL record with his ninth career kickoff return for a touchdown. His 103-yard return in the second quarter broke a tie with Joshua Cribbs and Leon Washington for the mark. Washington won for the fifth time in six games Sunday, 23-10 in Houston. Coach Ron Rivera said after that QB Taylor Heinicke is no longer the backup to Carson Wentz (he has been out hurt but is likely ready now).
Pick ATS: Washington
Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers
Denver’s offence struggled again Sunday in a 22-16 overtime loss to Las Vegas and there’s growing sentiment that Coach Nathaniel Hackett will not be back for Year 2. It was the Broncos’ sixth one-score loss this year as Russell Wilson left too much time on the clock at the end of regulation. Carolina lost 13-3 at Baltimore. Baker Mayfield was back as the starting QB and wasn’t very good with 196 yards passing and two scores.
Pick ATS: Denver
Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville comes out of its bye week. Baltimore didn’t play great Sunday but beat Carolina 13-3 for a fourth straight win. The Ravens forced three Panthers turnovers in the final 8:14. Baltimore improved its turnover margin to plus-9 on the season, and the Ravens now have at least one takeaway in 12 straight games.
Pick ATS: Jacksonville
Los Angeles Chargers at Arizona Cardinals
Short week for Arizona after losing 38-10 to San Francisco in Mexico on Monday night to conclude Week 10. Starting QB Kyler Murray missed a second straight game with a hamstring injury and too early to know if he can return here. The Chargers blew a late lead and lost 30-27 at home vs. Kansas City. It was the third straight year the Chargers had a late lead at home against the Chiefs and were unable to finish.
Pick ATS: Arizona if Murray plays
Las Vegas Raiders at Seattle Seahawks
Seattle comes off its bye atop the NFC West at 6-4 when many didn’t expect the Seahawks to even win six games all season after trading Russell Wilson. The Raiders stopped a three-game slide with a 22-16 OT win at Denver on Sunday. Derek Carr hit a wide-open Davante Adams with a 35-yard touchdown pass on the third play of overtime.
Pick ATS: Las Vegas
Los Angeles Rams at Kansas City Chiefs
The Rams lost their fourth in a row on Sunday, 27-20, and there will be no repeat Super Bowl champion – they aren’t even making the playoffs. QB Matthew Stafford left the field to be evaluated for a concussion in the second half. Stafford’s departure came two days after he’d been cleared to return from the NFL’s concussion protocol. The Chiefs rallied for their fourth straight win Sunday, 30-27 at the Chargers. MVP favourite Patrick Mahomes threw for three scores, all to tight end Travis Kelce.
Pick ATS: Los Angeles
New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers
Short week for the Niners after beating Arizona 38-10 in Mexico on Monday night to conclude Week 11. Jimmy Garoppolo threw for four TD passes. If he’s playing like that, San Francisco will reach Super Bowl 57 because it has one of the league’s top defences. The Saints won 27-20 over the Rams as Andy Dalton was terrific with only four incompletions and three TD passes.
Pick ATS: New Orleans
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday night game. Aaron Rodgers accepted blame for Green Bay’s 27-17 loss to Tennessee on Thursday in Week 11 as he missed on several throws – Rodgers is playing through a thumb injury, but it’s not expected to sideline him. The Eagles rallied for a late 17-16 win at Indianapolis on Sunday thanks to a Jalen Hurts TD run.
Pick ATS: Green Bay (alternate line of +7.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts, Monday
The Steelers’ defence was shredded Sunday in a 37-30 home loss to Cincinnati. Offensively, the Steelers managed just 52 total yards on their first six drives of the second half and turned a pair of short fields into only three points. The Colts have played better in two games under interim coach Jeff Saturday but blew a late home lead Sunday to Philadelphia and lost by a point.
Pick ATS: Indianapolis