NFL Week 11 Odds and Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread
On the bye this week are four NFC clubs: Arizona, Carolina, the New York Giants and Tampa Bay. Here’s a look at all Week 11 games with NFL odds and played Sunday unless noted.
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles, Thursday
First meeting of the season between NFC East rivals as the Eagles get their first up-close look at Commanders stellar QB Jayden Daniels, the massive favourite to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Washington was a tough-luck home loser to Pittsburgh on Sunday playing without injured No. 1 RB Brian Robinson, while Philadelphia won easily at Dallas to leapfrog the Commanders for first in the division. The Eagles are 5-0 since their bye week. They swept Washington last season.
Pick ATS: Philadelphia (alternate line of -2.5)
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
The NFL’s oldest rivalry is renewed for the first time this season, and Green Bay continued its recent domination of it with yet another sweep in 2023. The Packers have won 10 straight vs. the Bears. The Pack are out of their bye week and had a four-game winning streak snapped in a 24-14 home loss to Detroit in Week 9 that put a severe damper on Green Bay’s chances to win the North. Jordan Love threw yet another pick and has 10 in seven games (he missed two injured), including at least one in each. Chicago’s offence is completely broken as it has lost three games in a row and not scored an offensive TD in the past two. Coach Matt Eberflus and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron are both on incredibly hot seats following an embarrassing 19-3 home loss to New England on Sunday.
Pick ATS: Green Bay
Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions
Possible trap game for the NFC-best Lions after they rallied from a 16-point halftime deficit on Sunday night in Houston to win a potential Super Bowl preview, 26-23, on a walk-off field goal. Jared Goff had been on an incredible accuracy run but had a career-high five interceptions, and the Lions still won. They are 8-1 for the first time since 1954. Jacksonville played without injured starting QB Trevor Lawrence on Sunday, and it went about as well as expected under former Patriots first-round bust Mac Jones in a 12-7 home loss to Minnesota. Jones threw for just 111 yards and two picks but probably will have to go again Sunday.
Pick ATS: Jacksonville
Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans
The Titans got second-year QB Will Levis back from injury on Sunday, and he played arguably his best game of the season in completing 18 of 23 for 175 yards, two TDs and no picks Sunday but Tennessee lost 27-17 at the LA Chargers. The Titans have been held to 20 points or fewer in eight of nine games this season and are 0-7 when scoring fewer than 20 themselves. The Vikings didn’t play very well Sunday in Jacksonville but pulled out a 12-7 win despite a season-high three picks from Sam Darnold. NFL teams had lost 185 straight games when not scoring a touchdown and with at least three giveaways.
Pick ATS: Tennessee
Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins
Las Vegas comes out of its bye going nowhere fast amid reports first-year coach Antonio Pierce is already in trouble. He made the fairly desperate move during the off week to hire 72-year-old Norv Turner, a former Raiders, Chargers and Washington head coach, as an offensive assistant. Not clear who may call offensive plays after coordinator Luke Getsy was fired after the Raiders’ fifth straight loss in Week 9. Miami is on a short week as it temporarily saved its season with a 23-15 upset at the LA Rams on Monday night. Star WR Tyreek Hill was in question with a wrist injury but played and had a TD catch.
Pick ATS: Miami (alternate line of -7)
Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots
Mega-tough spot for Los Angeles on a short week with a 10 a.m. Pacific time kick and potential chilly weather in the Boston area (actually looks decent). The Rams had a three-game winning streak snapped on Monday night in a 23-15 home upset loss to Miami. The LA defence played really well, but the offence did not with two turnovers and numerous mistakes as it couldn’t score an offensive touchdown for only the second time in four years when QB Matthew Stafford was playing. New England was a 19-3 upset winner in Chicago on Sunday as rookie No. 3 overall QB Drake Maye outplayed Bears No. 1 overall QB Caleb Williams. The Pats’ defence dominated with only 142 yards allowed and nine sacks.
Pick ATS: New England
Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints
Two franchises going nowhere fast because both have major issues at quarterback and can’t really get out of them even next season due to salary-cap issues. Cleveland is out of its bye week at an incredibly disappointing 2-7 and 1-1 in two full games since QB Deshaun Watson went down with a season-ending injury. During the bye, the team traded away pass-rusher Za’Darius Smith to Detroit. New Orleans played its first game Sunday under interim head coach Darren Rizzi and upset visiting Atlanta, 20-17. Top Saints WR Chris Olave was out with a concussion and is in doubt for this one.
Pick ATS: Cleveland
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets
This originally was the Sunday night game but flexed out with the Jets as one of the NFL’s biggest disappointments and the Colts also under .500. Both lost on Sunday, with New York’s 31-6 defeat at Arizona perhaps rock bottom for 2024. Aaron Rodgers has the worst record through 10 games in his career at 3-7 and that was the seventh-largest loss of his Hall of Fame career including playoffs. The Colts were beaten at home by Buffalo, 30-20. Joe Flacco had four turnovers, but he will remain Indy’s starting QB for now.
Pick ATS: New York (alternate line of -2.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
First meeting of the season between AFC North contenders and almost impossibly Pittsburgh’s first division game of the year. It leads the North by a half-game over Baltimore after both won in Week 10 by a single point. Baltimore edged Cincinnati, 35-34, on Thursday night when it stopped the Bengals’ 2-point try in the final seconds. MVP favourite Lamar Jackson had four TD passes. Pittsburgh rallied for a 28-27 win in Washington. The Steelers are 3-0 since Russell Wilson took over at quarterback and averaging 30.8 PPG in the past four, which includes the final start for Justin Fields under centre. The Steelers won both games vs. the Ravens last season by scores of 17-10.
Pick ATS: Pittsburgh (alternate line of +3.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos
The Falcons could have taken complete command of the NFC South on Sunday but were upset in New Orleans, 20-17, as the Saints snapped a seven-game skid. Kirk Cousins had a bit of an off game with a pick and no TDs as the Falcons fell to 2-4 this year when he has fewer than two passing touchdowns. The Broncos should have handed the unbeaten Chiefs their first loss of the season in a massive upset Sunday in Kansas City but had the potential game-winning 35-yard field goal blocked at the end and lost 16-14. The Broncos are 0-4 against teams with a winning record in 2024.
Pick ATS: Denver
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
Big game in the NFC West with San Francisco eyeing a sweep as it won 36-24 in Seattle in Week 6 on a Thursday night. Brock Purdy threw for three scores, two to George Kittle. Seattle had three turnovers, including two Geno Smith picks. The Seahawks are off their bye, which came at a good time with the team banged up and having lost five of six. Top WR DK Metcalf is likely to return after missing the final two games pre-break due to a knee injury. Niners star RB Christian McCaffrey made his season debut Sunday off injury, and San Francisco escaped 20-17 in Tampa on a walk-off 44-yard field goal from Jake Moody after he missed three earlier field-goal tries in the game.
Pick ATS: San Francisco
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
Rematch of last season’s Divisional Round game in which the Chiefs upset the Bills 27-24 in Buffalo. It was the third time in the past four playoffs where Kansas City eliminated the Bills. The Chiefs won their franchise-record 15th straight game Sunday in unbelievable fashion by blocking Denver’s potential winning 35-yard field goal as time expired. Buffalo won pretty easily at Indianapolis. These teams are a combined 17-2 (.895), the seventh-best combined record entering a matchup this late in a season since the 1970 merger.
Pick ATS: Buffalo
Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday night game – not originally the case but flexed in for Colts-Jets. Cincinnati badly needs this at 4-6 and off a crushing 35-34 last-second loss in Baltimore on Thursday in Week 10. The Bengals tried for a 2-point PAT in the final seconds and the win, but it failed. Ja’Marr Chase had one of the great games for an NFL receiver in history with 11 catches for 264 yards and three scores. The Chargers fairly easily handled the visiting Titans on Sunday, 27-17, to become the first team this century to allow fewer than 21 points and 375 total yards in each of its first nine games.
Pick ATS: Cincinnati
Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys, Monday
The Cowboys as currently constructed due to injury, etc., should not be playing in primetime, but America’s Team doesn’t get flexed out of those and it’s too early in the season to flex MNF regardless. Dallas began life without star quarterback Dak Prescott – he’s expected to miss the rest of the season with a hamstring injury – on Sunday and was clobbered 34-6 at home as backup Cooper Rush was completely inept with 45 yards passing and two turnovers but will remain the starter. Houston blew a 16-point home halftime lead in a potential Super Bowl preview against Detroit and lost on a walk-off field goal. Star WR Nico Collins was thought likely to return from injury as he had been activated off IR, but he didn’t play. Collins should play Monday.
Pick ATS: Houston (alternate line of -7)
