NFL Week 11 Odds and Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread

Payton Matthews | Updated Nov 15, 2021

Carolina Panthers

If we're being honest, Week 11 of this NFL season is rather void of marquee matchups – but it’s those weeks that often stand out for great games.

Teams on the bye are Denver and the Los Angeles Rams. Here’s a quick look at all Week 11 NFL games, played Sunday unless noted.

New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons, Thursday

These two teams couldn’t have looked more different on Sunday. New England played without No. 1 running back Damien Harris but still crushed Cleveland 45-7 as rookie QB Mac Jones had the first three-TD passing game of his young career and fellow rookie Rhamondre Stevenson rushed for 100 yards and two scores. Atlanta was destroyed 43-3 in Dallas as former NFL MVP Matt Ryan had maybe the worst game of his career by completing just 9-for-17 for 117 yards and two picks. He was eventually pulled but there’s no QB controversy.

Point spread: Patriots -5.5

Pick ATS: New England

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills

Indy visited Buffalo in last season’s wild-card round and lost 27-24 in what would be the final NFL game for Colts QB and future Hall of Famer Philip Rivers. He threw for two TDs as did Bills counterpart Josh Allen, who also rushed for a score. Both clubs won Sunday. The Colts avoided a Jacksonville upset, 23-17. Jonathan Taylor is the NFL’s best running back right now with Derrick Henry out injured and had his fourth 100-yard game in the past five with 116 yards and a TD on 21 carries. Buffalo beat up on the sorry Jets 45-17 behind 366 yards and two TDs from Allen.

Point spread: Bills -7

Pick ATS: Buffalo (alternate line of -6.5)

Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears

Chicago comes off its bye week at 3-6 but perhaps feeling much better about the future as rookie QB Justin Fields played back-to-back excellent games leading into the break. The Bears lost both (and four in a row overall) because they don’t have much else. Baltimore was shocked 22-10 in Miami last Thursday. The Ravens’ streak of 51 regular-season games with at least 14 points — the second-longest such streak in NFL history behind a 63-game run by New England from 2009 through 2013 — came to an end.

Point spread: Ravens -6

Pick ATS: Baltimore

Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns

Two of the four franchises to never reach a Super Bowl. The Lions might finish winless this season but they will not become the first time to finish 0-17 because they tied the Steelers on Sunday, 16-16. That game was comically bad. Detroit’s Ryan Santoso, filling in for an injured Austin Seibert, could have won it at the end of regulation on a 48-yard kick but was well short. Cleveland was obliterated 45-7 in New England. QB Baker Mayfield, already playing through a bad left shoulder, left in the third quarter with a knee injury and didn’t return.

Point spread: Browns -9.5

Pick ATS: Detroit (alternate line of +10)

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans

First meeting of the season between AFC South rivals. Houston comes out of its bye week with an argument as the NFL’s worst team. Tennessee has the AFC’s best record and longest winning streak at six in a row following a 23-21 home win over the Saints on Sunday. Tennessee is 7-0 overall against 2020 playoff teams this season so this could be a possible trap game.

Point spread: Titans -10

Pick ATS: Houston (alternate line of +10.5)

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

First meeting this season between these NFC North rivals. Green Bay got Aaron Rodgers back from COVID on Sunday and he wasn’t all that sharp in the snow in a 17-0 win over Seattle that gave the Packers the top seed in the NFC for now. Star running back Aaron Jones left with what might be a serious knee injury as he could be seen crying on the sideline. Every Vikings game this season has been decided by seven points or fewer following their 27-20 upset win at the Chargers on Sunday. The Vikes were down several players on the COVID list and due to injury.

Point spread: Packers -2.5

Pick ATS: Green Bay

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

First meeting between AFC East rivals. The Jets are an utter disaster after a 45-17 home loss to Buffalo. In their last four games, the Jets are allowing an average of 43.8 points, including back-to-back contests of 45 points. The Mike White experiment at QB is probably over as he was picked off four times. If rookie Zach Wilson is healthy, he should start this week. Miami won’t its second in a row last Thursday, 22-10 over Baltimore. Tua Tagovailoa wasn’t healthy enough to start at QB but relieved a banged-up Jacoby Brissett and led the upset.

Point spread: Dolphins -3

Pick ATS: Miami (alternate line of -2.5)

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles

New Orleans played without star running back Alvin Kamara on Sunday and lost 23-21 at Tennessee, failing on a two-point conversion try in the final seconds. Not yet clear if Kamara will play this week. The Eagles have been better on the road than at home this year, winning 30-13 in Denver on Sunday. The Broncos were driving for the tying touchdown late in the third quarter when the Eagles recovered a fumble and Darius Slay returned it 83 yards for a TD.

Point spread: Eagles -1.5

Pick ATS: New Orleans

Washington Football Team at Carolina Panthers

One clear similarity between these clubs: Neither has a long-term quarterback on the roster and both will either draft or trade for one this off-season. Washington did upset Tampa Bay 29-19 on Sunday but fears it lost 2020 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Chase Young to a season-ending torn ACL. With Sam Darnold out for the year injured and simply terrible, Carolina brought back Cam Newton last week. The former MVP didn’t start Sunday’s 34-10 upset at Arizona but rushed for a TD and threw one.

Point spread: Panthers -3

Pick ATS: Carolina (alternate line of -2.5)

San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Niners are off their bye and with a losing record it might be time for rookie QB Trey Lance to take over as the starter. Jacksonville lost 23-17 in Indianapolis on Sunday. No. 1 overall rookie Trevor Lawrence continues to struggle, completing just 16 of 35 for 162 yards. The Jags also had a punt blocked that led to a Colts TD.

Point spread: 49ers -5.5

Pick ATS: San Francisco

Cincinnati Bengals at Las Vegas Raiders

Cincinnati is out of its bye. The Raiders were dominated Sunday night in a 41-14 home loss to the Chiefs. Las Vegas allowed 516 yards. All the off-field nonsense in recent weeks surrounding the franchise seems to be catching up to it.

Point spread: Pick’em

Pick ATS: Cincinnati

Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City’s offence had been massively disappointing of late but perhaps got right Sunday night in a 41-14 win in Las Vegas. Patrick Mahomes looked back to his MVP-calibre self with 406 yards passing and five scores. Top running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire should return from injury this week. Dallas pulverized Atlanta 43-3 on Sunday as the defence allowed just 214 yards and forced three turnovers. The Cowboys outscored the Falcons 29-0 in the second quarter.

Point spread: Chiefs -2.5

Pick ATS: Dallas (alternate line of +3)

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

First meeting between NFC West rivals. Will Arizona have QB Kyler Murray and star WR DeAndre Hopkins? They have missed the past two games and the Cards were surprisingly routed without them Sunday at home by Carolina to temporarily lose the top seed in the NFC. Seattle QB Russell Wilson returned from an injury suffered in Week 5 but looked terrible in a 17-0 loss in Green Bay. It was the Seahawks’ first shutout loss since 2011, the year before Wilson’s NFL debut.

Point spread: Cardinals -2

Pick ATS: Arizona if Murray and Hopkins play; Seattle if not

Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers

Sunday night game. Pittsburgh played without QB Ben Roethlisberger (COVID) and Canadian wideout Chase Claypool (injury) on Sunday vs. Detroit and suffered an embarrassing 16-16 tie. Star defender TJ Watt left with a leg injury but it’s not believed to be serious. The Chargers dropped their third game in the past four Sunday, 27-20 vs. Minnesota.

Point spread: Chargers -3.5

Pick ATS: Pittsburgh if Big Ben plays

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Monday

New York comes out of its bye. Tampa Bay was upset 29-19 at Washington on Sunday, the second straight loss for the Super Bowl champs. Tom Brady was picked off twice. He was again without receiver Antonio Brown and tight end Rob Gronkowski. Excellent nose tackle Vita Vea left with an injury that could be serious.

Point spread: Bucs -11.5

Pick ATS: New York