NFL Week 11 Odds and Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread
Atlanta, New Orleans, New England and Indianapolis are on the bye. Here’s a quick look at all Week 11 NFL games, played Sunday unless noted.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens, Thursday
Huge game in the AFC North – although both teams were stunned at home on Sunday by lesser teams to have four-game winning streaks end. The Bengals played without No. 2 WR Tee Higgins, and he’s not looking good for this one. The Ravens lost one of their top offensive linemen and defensive backs on Sunday to injury. Baltimore won 27-24 in Cincinnati in Week 2 back when Joe Burrow was still pretty banged up with a calf injury.
Pick ATS: Cincinnati
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
Every game is big in the AFC North, really the only division where every team can legitimately win it. Both these clubs got huge comeback wins on Sunday. Cleveland QB Deshaun Watson did tweak his ankle and was to get an MRI, but it’s not expected to keep him out. Pittsburgh beat visiting Cleveland 26-22 in Week 2 thanks to a 16-yard fumble return TD from TJ Watt about midway through the fourth quarter. That was the game the Browns lost Pro Bowl running back Nick Chubb to a season-ending injury.
Pick ATS: Pittsburgh
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
First meeting of the season between NFC North rivals. I’m not saying the Lions will reach the first Super Bowl in franchise history, but they might, as they continue to impress following a 41-38 win at the Chargers on Sunday. With 1:47 remaining and the score tied at 38-all, Lions coach Dan Campbell went for it on fourth-and-2 from the Los Angeles 26-yard line. Detroit got it and eventually hit the winning field goal as time expired. Chicago played its fourth straight full game without starting QB Justin Fields on Thursday in Week 10 but beat Carolina, 16-13, and Fields probably will play Sunday.
Pick ATS: Chicago if Fields plays (buy up to +10.5)
Los Angeles Chargers at Green Bay Packers
Obviously not ideal for a team from Los Angeles to visit Green Bay in November, but the weather doesn’t look all that bad Sunday. The Bolts lost 41-38 at home to Detroit on Sunday, their fourth loss this season by three points or fewer. That’s the Charger Way. Los Angeles scored touchdowns on its final five drives and still couldn’t win. That might be a first. Green Bay lost 23-19 in Pittsburgh, although young QB Jordan Love played fairly well with 289 yards passing and two TDs … but also two picks. That team completely lacks an identity now.
Pick ATS: Green Bay (buy up to +3.5)
Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins
Miami comes out of its bye week leading the AFC East and 4-0 at home. But the story with the Dolphins is largely the same it was last year: They can’t beat the best teams in the league – losing to Buffalo, Philadelphia and Kansas City — but handle all the rest. Las Vegas is definitely not one of the best but is 2-0 under interim head coach Antonio Pierce following a 16-12 win over the Jets on Sunday night. What Pierce has done first and foremost is ride 2022 rushing king Josh Jacobs the past two weeks. Former coach Josh McDaniels wouldn’t do that for some reason.
Pick ATS: Las Vegas
New York Giants at Washington Commanders
The Giants seem to embarrass themselves in different ways each week, and they looked like a high school team in Dallas on Sunday in a 49-17 loss that could have been 69-0 had the Cowboys wanted. New York allowed an unthinkable 640 yards, including 472 rushing, and totaled only 172 with undrafted rookie free agent Tommy DeVito under centre. He presumably starts again this week as the Giants have no one else. The Commanders played well Sunday but lost on a walk-off field goal in Seattle. New York beat Washington 14-7 in Week 7. Tyrod Taylor threw two second-quarter touchdown passes for the Giants but now is on injured reserve.
Pick ATS: Washington (buy down to -9.5)
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers
Dallas absolutely obliterated the New York Giants on Sunday in what amounted to a scrimmage. Dak Prescott passed for 404 yards and totalled five touchdowns (four passing, one rushing), and wide receiver CeeDee Lamb recorded 11 receptions for 151 yards and one touchdown. Lamb became the first player in league history with three straight games of at least 10 catches and 150 yards. Carolina played on Thursday in Week 10 in Chicago and the offensive struggles continued for No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young in a 16-13 loss.
Pick ATS: Carolina
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
First meeting between AFC South rivals. Tennessee has turned the team over to rookie QB Will Levis and thus days like Sunday’s 20-6 loss in Tampa will happen with a young QB. He struggled, completing just 19 of 39 for 199 yards and a pick with four sacks. Winning really is irrelevant the rest of the way for the Titans. Jacksonville looked like a Super Bowl contender coming out of its bye on a five-game winning streak Sunday but was manhandled at home by the 49ers, so maybe the Jags have a ways to go yet.
Pick ATS: Jacksonville
Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans
These franchises are linked because Arizona traded to No. 3 overall pick in the 2023 draft to Houston, which took Alabama pass-rusher Will Anderson. In return, the Cardinals got back the 12th pick in the first round (which they ended up flipping), as well as the No. 33 pick in the second round, and a first- and third-round pick in 2024. The more Houston wins, the less valuable those 2024 picks are and the better the trade for the Texans. The Cards saw QB Kyler Murray make his season debut Sunday off a torn ACL, and he led a 25-23 comeback win over Atlanta – frankly, the last thing the Cards want to do is win right now. Houston continued to shock with a comeback win in Cincinnati as rookie QB CJ Stroud was terrific again. He’s a lock to win Offensive Rookie of the Year but now it’s time to start talking MVP.
Pick ATS: Houston
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers
It’s quite possible that the Bucs might have fired Coach Todd Bowles and/or benched starting QB Baker Mayfield had they lost Sunday at home to the Titans and a rookie QB, but Tampa Bay ended a four-game skid with a 20-6 victory. Mayfield threw for 278 yards and two scores, so his job is safe for now. The Niners came out of their bye much healthier and clearly much more focused as they trounced a good Jaguars team 34-3 in Jacksonville, although Christian McCaffrey’s streak of scoring at least one TD ended at 17 consecutive games including playoffs. That’s one shy of the record.
Pick ATS: San Francisco
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is on a short week after being shocked by visiting Denver 24-22 on Monday as the Bills kept beating themselves with four turnovers and crushing penalties, which has been a bit of a common theme of late. Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey was fired on Monday. The Jets once again were held without an offensive touchdown in Sunday’s 16-12 loss in Las Vegas. Zach Wilson had a crushing late interception to clinch it for the Raiders. Coach Robert Saleh says that Wilson remains his starter because what other option does Saleh have? These teams met Week 1 and the Jets upset the Bills 22-16 in OT on a 65-yard punt return TD – the only time New York led. Of course, Aaron Rodgers was lost (maybe) for the season early in that game.
Pick ATS: Buffalo (buy down to -6.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
The Rams come off their bye week and signed QB Carson Wentz during it. He will be the new No. 2 behind Matthew Stafford if Stafford is healthy. He missed the team’s Week 9 loss in Green Bay with a thumb injury but is expected to start this week. Seattle remains tied atop the NFC West after a walk-off home win over Washington on Sunday. It was the third time this season Hawks QB Geno Smith led a winning drive in the fourth quarter or overtime. Los Angeles was a surprise 30-13 winner Week 1 in Seattle.
Pick ATS: Los Angeles
Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos
Sunday night game. Short week for Denver after a stunning 24-22 win in Buffalo to conclude Week 10. The Broncos forced four turnovers and took advantage of a do-over via defensive penalty for the winning field goal as time expired. Sean Payton’s team has won three in a row and looks so much better defensively. Minnesota has risen from the dead despite some devastating injuries and won its fifth in a row Sunday as newly acquired QB Josh Dobbs threw for a score and rushed for one. A few weeks ago, he was an afterthought in Arizona and now is among the Comeback Player of the Year favourites after two games in a Vikings uniform. Linebacker Jordan Hicks had to be hospitalized for a leg issue so he’s out at least this week.
Pick ATS: Denver
Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs, Monday
Of course, the Chiefs beat the Eagles in one of the great Super Bowl games ever back on Feb. 12 in Phoenix. Harrison Butker kicked a 27-yard field goal with 8 seconds remaining. Featuring the 2022 regular-season MVP Patrick Mahomes and MVP runner-up Jalen Hurts, it was first Super Bowl matchup featuring two Black starting QBs. Mahomes won Super Bowl MVP honours. Hurts definitely would have won it with four total TDs if Philly had won. We could very easily see a rematch this February in Las Vegas. Both clubs are off bye weeks and leading their conferences.
Pick ATS: Philadelphia (buy up to +3)