NFL Week 10 Odds and Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread

Payton Matthews | Updated Nov 08, 2021

Here’s a quick look at all the Week 10 NFL games, played Sunday unless noted.

Two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks, Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers, are in question for their Week 10 matchup. The Bears, Giants, Texans and Bengals are on the bye.

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins, Thursday

Will Miami have starting QB Tua Tagovailoa? He missed Sunday’s 17-9 win over Houston, which snapped the Fins’ seven-game losing streak, with a fractured finger but was available as the emergency backup behind Jacoby Brissett. The quick turnaround obvious lessens Tua’s chances of being ready. Baltimore came out of its bye and beat the visiting Vikings 34-31 in OT as Lamar Jackson threw for 266 yards and three scores and rushed for 120 yards.

Point spread: Ravens -7

Pick ATS: Baltimore (alternate line of -6.5)

Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys

These teams played a wild game early last season in Dallas where the Falcons somehow blew a 39-24 lead with five minutes left and lost by a point. Atlanta looked like one of the NFL’s worst teams this year in getting blown out its past two games but is now 4-4 after a 27-25 upset win in New Orleans on Sunday. No. 1 receiver Calvin Ridley remains away from the team to focus on his mental well-being. One of the most surprising results of Sunday was the Cowboys’ 30-16 home loss to Denver and it wasn’t even that close. Two late TDs that merely avoided what would have been their worst shutout loss at home since 1985.

Point spread: Cowboys -9

Pick ATS: Atlanta

New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans

The Titans played their first game since losing superstar running back Derrick Henry for the season and shocked the Rams in Los Angeles on Sunday night, 28-16, despite just 194 yards offence. Tennessee picked Matthew Stafford twice, once returned for a TD. The Saints began life without starting QB Jameis Winston, lost for the season, and were upset 27-25 at home by Atlanta.

Point spread: Titans -2.5

Pick ATS: Tennessee

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

Jacksonville has three wins since dating to last season. One was the 2020 opener at home over the Colts. The Jags pulled off a massive upset of the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, 9-6. Rookie QB Trevor Lawrence suffered a low-ankle sprain but was able to return and thinks he should be fine to play in this one. Top running back James Robinson didn’t play. The Colts manhandled the Jets last Thursday, 45-30, behind 172 yards rushing and two scores from Jonathan Taylor.

Point spread: Colts -10.5

Pick ATS: Indianapolis

Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots

Cleveland was a 41-16 upset winner in Cincinnati on Sunday in its first game since releasing Odell Beckham Jr. Nick Chubb ran for 137 yards cornerback Denzel Ward had an early 99-yard interception return for a TD. The Browns became the first team since the 1967 San Diego Chargers to record an interception return for a touchdown, a receiving TD and a rushing TD of at least 60 yards in a single game. New England rolled 24-6 at Carolina but saw running back Damien Harris and tight end Jonnu Smith both leave early.

Point spread: Patriots -2.5

Pick ATS: New England

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

Really no explanation for the Bills losing 9-6 in Jacksonville on Sunday. Josh Allen didn’t have his best game with two picks and wasn’t even the best Josh Allen on the field – Jaguars linebacker Josh Allen was. Top tight end Dawson Knox was out injured. The Jets were outclassed 45-30 at Indianapolis last Thursday. Not clear who will start at QB this week. Rookie No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson may or may not return from injury. Backup Mike White left the Colts game early with a hand injury.

Point spread: Bills -13

Pick ATS: Buffalo

Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers

Now that the Lions come out of their bye at 0-8, the watch is really on to see if they will become the first franchise ever to finish 0-17 in a season. Highly doubtful they win this game, although Detroit catches a minor break in that Pittsburgh is on a short week after hosting Chicago on Monday to conclude Week 9.

Point spread: Steelers -9

Pick ATS: Detroit

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team

Both teams come out of their bye. That should mean key players on each side who missed a game or two ahead of the off week are likely to return. The Bucs visited Maryland for a wild-card game last season and were pushed to the limit by then-unknown Washington QB Taylor Heinicke but escaped.

Point spread: Bucs -9.5

Pick ATS: Washington

Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals

Carolina finally got back star running back Christian McCaffrey from injury, but he doesn’t play quarterback and that’s the Panthers’ problem as Sam Darnold was awful again Sunday in a 24-6 home loss to the Patriots. Canadian rookie Chuba Hubbard had played well in McCaffrey’s place but only had three carries for three yards. Arizona played without star QB Kyler Murray and WR DeAndre Hopkins on Sunday and still upset the 49ers 31-17. Pretty good chance both return this week.

Point spread: Cardinals -10

Pick ATS: Arizona (if Murray plays; at alternate line of -9.5)

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers

No team finds new ways to lose close games quite like the Vikings, who did it again Sunday in a 34-31 OT loss at Baltimore. Minnesota led by 14 about midway through the third quarter. The Vikings are 3-5 and haven’t lost a game by more than seven points. The Chargers snapped a two-game skid with a 27-24 win in Philadelphia. Justin Herbert had struggled in those two losses but threw for 356 yards and two scores. He also rushed for a TD.

Point spread: Chargers -2.5

Pick ATS: Los Angeles

Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos

Philadelphia lost 27-24 at home to the Chargers on Sunday despite rushing for 176 yards and two scores – and top running back Miles Sanders didn’t even play. The Eagles defence allowed a fifth different QB this season to complete at least 80 per cent of his passes. Denver was a surprise 30-16 winner in Dallas, rushing for 190 yards and two scores. The defence played fantastic despite having traded star pass rusher Von Miller.

Point spread: Broncos -2.5

Pick ATS: Denver

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers

Seattle comes out of its bye. Bettors may need to wait until Sunday morning to make an advised pick here as we don’t know if Seattle QB Russell Wilson will return from a broken finger (Week 10 was the original target date) or whether Packers QB Aaron Rodgers will get out of COVID protocols in time after testing positive ahead of Week 9. Rodgers is eligible to return Saturday but won’t if he’s showing symptoms. Jordan Love made his first NFL start Sunday and struggled quite a bit in a loss in Kansas City.

Point spread: Packers -5.5

Pick ATS: Green Bay (only if Rodgers plays)

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders

Sunday night game. The Raiders did upset the Chiefs once last season. Kansas City caught a major break this past Sunday in not having to face Aaron Rodgers and beat the Packers 13-7, although that once high-powered Chiefs offence continues to struggle. Patrick Mahomes was held to 166 yards passing. The Raiders released top receiver and 2020 first-round pick Henry Ruggs last week in the wake of being charged in a DUI fatal crash and then lost at the Giants on Sunday 23-16. Derek Carr was picked off twice.

Point spread: Chiefs -2.5

Pick ATS: Kansas City

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers, Monday

The Niners were 2-0 vs. the Rams last season. Both NFC West clubs were upset on Sunday. The Rams were clocked 28-16 on Sunday night by Tennessee despite only allowing 194 yards. Matthew Stafford had two terrible interceptions on back-to-back plays, one returned for a score. Trade addition and pass rusher Von Miller didn’t play but should here. The Niners couldn’t take advantage of a short-handed Cardinals team and lost 31-17 at home. George Kittle returned from a long injury absence with 101 yards and a TD on six catches.

Point spread: Rams -3

Pick ATS: Los Angeles (alternate line of -2.5)