NFL Week 10 Best Picks Against the Spread: Who We Like, Who We Don’t

We have reached the halfway point of the 2026 NFL regular season, but it’s a not very good week for primetime games, at least on Thursday and Monday. There is another European matchup. On the bye are Super Bowl contenders Chicago and Denver along with Philadelphia and Tampa Bay. Here’s a look at all Week 10 matchups with ATS picks on the NFL odds. Games Sunday unless noted. Check out all of our Week 10 NFL predictions here.

Washington Commanders at New York Giants, Thursday

Important game in the NFC East, which is fabulously mediocre overall. Whichever team wins here will hold the head-to-head tiebreaker because the club played to an utterly bizarre 27-27 tie in Week 5. You may remember the Commanders should have attempted a pretty easy winning field goal, but Jayden Daniels had a brain freeze and the clock simply ran out. Giants QB JJ McCarthy got dinged up in Sunday’s win in Philadelphia but is expected to play.

Point spread: Giants -1.5

Pick ATS: New York

New England Patriots “at” Detroit Lions

Potential Super Bowl preview from FC Bayern Munich Stadium in Germany with a 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff. New England was rocked at home by Green Bay on Sunday, 45-27, the most points the Pats have allowed in a home game since 1970. They had given up just 14.3 PPG in the previous five. Drake Maye had three passing TDs, his sixth straight game with at least three. The Lions didn’t look great but won 19-9 in Miami on Sunday. Jared Goff’s streak of 30 straight games with a TD pass, the NFL’s longest active, came to an end.

Point spread: Lions -2.5

Pick ATS: Detroit

Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons

Kansas City matched its win total from last season with Sunday’s 35-12 win over the Jets as Patrick Mahomes avoided the first three-game skid of his NFL career. Kenneth Walker III continued his huge season with two receiving scores and one rushing. Walker has 11 TDs in the six K.C. wins and zero in the team’s two losses. The Falcons were thumped in Spain by Cincinnati on Sunday, their second straight loss by at least 15 points, and traded All-Pro safety Jessie Bates to Cincinnati.

Point spread: Chiefs -3.5

Pick ATS: Kansas City alt -3

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns

Behind Shedeur Sanders, the Browns nearly stole a win Sunday in New Orleans with coach Todd Monken opting to try for the 2-point PAT late in overtime … but it failed in the 23-22 OT loss. Sanders played quite well with starter Deshaun Watson banged up, but Monken says that Watson will return as the starter against his former Texans team. Houston saved its season with a 44-22 blowout win Sunday at the Chargers and became the first team in the NFL since 1979 with at least five pass TDs and eight defensive sacks in a game.

Point spread: Texans -4.5

Pick ATS: Cleveland

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

Short week for Minnesota after looking offensively inept on Monday night in 23-6 home loss to Buffalo. Carson Wentz was a joke under centre, so the team almost has to find a QB via trade before Tuesday’s deadline. Good luck with that. No team has looked better this season than the Packers did Sunday in winning 45-27 at New England. Both Christian Watson and Matthew Golden had at least 160 yards receiving and a score, only the fourth duo with at least 160 & a TD in the same game this century. The Packers looked lost at 1-2 but have largely dominated in a 5-1 run since.

Point spread: Packers -4.5

Pick ATS: Green Bay

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

Tennessee comes out of its bye week a disorganized mess, and it would be best to lose out and try and get the top pick in a loaded 2027 NFL Draft. QB Cam Ward, the top pick in 2025, doesn’t look like the answer. Jacksonville won easily in Baltimore, 33-10, on Thursday in Week 9 and then the Jags ahead of the trade deadline landed three defensive players led by Pro Bowl safety Jessie Bates from Atlanta. The front office is going for it, as it should, with the Jags an NFL-best 14-2 in their past 16 overall.

Point spread: Jaguars -9.5

Pick ATS: Tennessee alt +10

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts

Easily one of the most brutal matchups of the season. The Dolphins scored a season-low nine points Sunday in a 10-point home loss to Detroit and committed a season-high 11 penalties. Eight of the 11 accepted penalties were against the offence, including five holding calls. The Colts lost a fifth game in a row Sunday, 27-23 vs. Dallas, and are allowing 29.0 PPG in that span. Anything not nailed down might be traded by Tuesday’s deadline led by star RB Jonathan Taylor.

Point spread:  Colts -2.5

Pick ATS: Indianapolis

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

Important game in the ugly NFC South and first meeting of the season between the clubs. New Orleans came out of its bye and was lucky to win at home vs. Cleveland, 23-22 in OT when the Browns tried for a 2-point PAT and failed. Shouldn’t have even gotten to OT, but the Saints had two turnovers. They had been 0-3 at home. Carolina lots its third in row, 26-21 vs. Denver. A late strip-sack of Bryce Young ruined a shot at the upset victory. Wideout Xavier Legette could be activated off IR this week.

Point spread: Saints -1.5

Pick ATS: Carolina

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

Short week for Buffalo after a 23-6 win at Minnesota on Monday night. Against a terrific defence, the Bills were held to a season low in points and 2 yards per play below their league-leading season average. They were without two starting offensive linemen. New York lost a fourth game in a row Sunday, 35-12 in Kansas City. The Aaron Glenn experiment at head coach won’t last much longer. His Jets team is now 1-10 vs. teams with a record above .500. Top WR Garrett Wilson missed it injured, but good chance he’s back.

Point spread: Bills -7.5

Pick ATS: New York

Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders

The first-year Raiders head coach is Klint Kubiak, who was the offensive coordinator of last season’s Super Bowl champion Seahawks. He took a few coaches with him to Las Vegas. The Raiders’ offence has been pretty good this year, but the defence struggled again Sunday in a 38-17 loss in San Francisco. It was the sixth straight game that Las Vegas has allowed at least 30. Kubiak backed DC Rob Leonard. Seattle played without injured starting QB Sam Darnold on Sunday but easily handled Arizona, 17-3. Drew Lock managed the game well to improve to 2-0 as the starter this season and will get another as the team wants to give Darnold more rest. Although Lock did suffer a minor injury himself.

Point spread: Seahawks -3.5

Pick ATS: Las Vegas

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals go for the shock sweep after stunning the Rams 18-16 in Week 6 in Los Angeles. Arizona didn’t even reach the end zone but got six Chad Ryland field goals. The Rams are 3-0 since following a 20-13 win at Washington on Sunday. Superstar pass-rusher Myles Garrett played for the first time since Week 1 and had had three sacks and a forced fumble in his return. But All-Pro wideout Puka Nacua hurt his knee and will miss at least four weeks. Arizona was a 17-3 loser Sunday in Seattle, the team’s 21st straight loss against teams entering .500 or better. QB Gardner Minshew was hurt, so rookie Carson Beck is poised for his first start.

Point spread: Rams -9.5

Pick ATS: Arizona alt +10

San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys

Two of the NFL’s marquee franchises but really just one of them has been consistently good of late and that’s San Francisco. More of the same in 2026. The Niners came out of their bye Sunday and routed the Raiders, 38-17. Christian McCaffrey had two total TDs, including his 37^th career receiving score. That passed Marshall Faulk for most ever by a running back. The Cowboys escaped in Indianapolis, 27-23, for only their second win since the start of last season when scoring fewer than 30 points. Dak Prescott had his 28^th career game-winning drive to move within one of Tony Romo’s team record.

Point spread: 49ers -4.5

Pick ATS: Dallas

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Sunday night game and huge in the AFC North. One small edge to the Steelers off their bye week. QB Aaron Rodgers is playing some of his best football in years at age 42. Cincinnati went to Madrid and beat the Falcons, 34-17 on Sunday as Joe Burrow had a fourth straight game with at least four TDs. Burrow is only the fifth player ever to do that. In Week 3, Pittsburgh beat visiting Cincinnati, 30-27, in a back-and-forth affair. Chris Boswell hit the winning field goal with 2:18 remaining. Rodgers was excellent with three TD passes, same as Burrow.

Point spread: Bengals -3.5

Pick ATS: Cincinnati alt -3

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens, Monday

Just think how much has changed in two months as these were among the Super Bowl favourites in early September. The winless Chargers are one of the worst disasters in years, while the Ravens’ season isn’t over yet, but they also have hugely disappointed. This will be the Baltimore debut of new starting QB Jacoby Brissett after being acquired via trade from Arizona. Without their top two QBs on Thursday in Week 9, the Ravens embarrassed themselves offensively in a 33-10 home loss in the rain to Jacksonville. Brissett will be an upgrade on undrafted rookie QB Joe Fagnano, who was overwhelmed in that loss. The Chargers embarrassed themselves equally in a 44-22 home loss to Houston on Sunday.

Point spread: Ravens -5.5

Pick ATS: Baltimore