NFL Spreads Week 11: Best Picks Against the Spread

Frank Doyle | Updated Nov 16, 2015

New England Patriots

The New England Patriots’ quest for a perfect season lives on heading into Week 11. 

The New England Patriots probably wouldn’t admit it, but Week 10’s comeback win over the Giants definitely tasted a little sweeter than the team’s previous nine victories this season.

Sure, it’s a small dose of revenge after losing two Super Bowls to the Giants, though maybe it becomes more important down the road as the Pats continue their hunt for another perfect regular season. The road map ahead does look promising, even after the Patriots lost wideout Julian Edelman to a broken foot this week.

If New England is going to run the table they’re going to end up in more tight spots before the playoffs, possibly as soon as Monday when the Patriots are set as 7.5-point favourites at home to the Buffalo Bills.

NFL Spreads Week 10 Best Picks Against the Spread

Current NFL odds

Updated odds throughout the week in italics

Thursday Night Football

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Point spread: Jaguars -2.5/ Jaguars -3

Total: 41.5

In the last three weeks the Jags have beaten Buffalo, covered in a loss at the Jets, and won a game in Baltimore, so it’s about time they get a little respect. This number could easily move over a field goal, so if you like Jacksonville in this spot, don’t wait until game day.

Pick against the spread: Jaguars -2.5

Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins

Point spread: Pick ‘em

Total: 47

Tony Romo returns this week and faces an uphill battle in saving the Dallas Cowboys’ season. As terrible as Dallas has been, Romo does give this offence a major boost and it’s still hard to trust this Dolphins team.

Pick against the spread: Cowboys

Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears

Point spread: Broncos -2/ Pick ’em

Total: 41

It doesn’t sound like Peyton Manning is in any shape to start in Week 11, which might actually be a good thing for Broncos bettors. The problem is this isn’t the cupcake matchup it looked like earlier this season no matter who’s starting for Denver. The Bears are on a roll.

Pick against the spread: Bears +2

Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons

Point spread: Falcons -6

Total 47

The Falcons are coming off their bye and on their fast track indoors at home. The week off should have Julio Jones back at top speed and Indianapolis just doesn’t have the offensive weapons to match up with Atlanta.

Pick against the spread: Falcons -6

New York Jets at Houston Texans

Point spread: Jets -2.5

Total: N/A

Ryan Fitzpatrick should be fine to suit up after having surgery on his non-throwing thumb last week. The Jets couldn’t get anything going in last week’s loss to the Bills, but shouldn’t have problems moving the ball on Houston’s defence. The Texans give up about 123 yards per game on the ground.

Pick against the spread: Jets -2.5

Oakland Raiders at Detroit Lions

Point spread: Raiders -1.5 / Raiders -2

Total: 48.5

The Lions gutted out a huge upset win at Lambeau Field last week and now catch the Raiders in a tough spot. The Raiders come in from the west coast for an early start on Sunday and they had a tough time running the ball in Week 10’s loss at Minnesota. Expect a lot of the same in Week 11.

Pick against the spread: Lions +1.5

St. Louis Rams at Baltimore Ravens

Point spread: Pick ‘em / Ravens -2.5

Total: 41.5

If Todd Gurley can get a few holes early, it might be a long day for the Ravens. St. Louis will bounce back after last week’s blowout loss to Chicago.

Pick against the spread: Rams

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles

Point spread: Eagles -5.5

Total: 45.5

Tampa Bay doesn’t do anything pretty, but the Bucs have covered the number in four of their last five. Tampa Bay has the type of well-rounded defence to frustrate the Eagles and the running game to control its share of possession.

Pick against the spread: Buccaneers

Washington at Carolina Panthers

Point spread: Panthers -7

Total: 45.5

You don’t have to like Cam Newton or the Carolina Panthers, but you’d better start taking them seriously. Newton is an MVP candidate heading into Week 11 and the Panthers are 9-0 and have covered the spread in seven of those wins. Washington’s 30th-ranked rush defence is in the spotlight here.

Pick against the spread: Panthers -7

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers

Point spread: Chiefs -3

Total: 44.5

The Chiefs can make teams with one-dimensional offences look pretty bad – just ask Peyton Manning and the Broncos. After losing five in a row, Kansas City has reeled off three straight wins and has show the ability to put some points on the board when needed.

Pick against the spread: Chiefs -3

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

Point spread: Pick ‘em

Total: 44.5

This is the game the real Green Bay Packers show up. While Minnesota’s defence has been nasty, the Packers can put the Vikings on their heels with a couple of early scores. The Vikings may not be able to keep pace with a desperate Green Bay squad.

Pick against the spread: Packers

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Point spread: Seahawks -11.5 /Seahawks -13

Total: 40

Nothing we’ve seen from the Seahawks suggests they should be 11.5-point favourites against anyone – even the terrible 49ers.

Pick against the spread: 49ers

Sunday Night Football

Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals

Point spread: Cardinals -5

Total: 48.5

We won’t say the Bengals were exposed last week per se, but it certainly looks as though this team can be rattled by a pressure defence. That’s bad news against the Cardinals, who will not only smack you in the face and steal you lunch money, but put a bunch of points on the board to boot.

Pick against the spread: Cardinals -5

Monday Night Football

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

Point spread: Patriots -7

Total: 48

Can New England’s league-best rush defence contain the Bills? That’s the big question here. If the Bills don’t move the ball on the ground, they’re not going to move it at all. That said, the Patriots’ running game is nearly non-existent at the moment. Tough call but when you’re stuck, go with the better quarterback and the home team.

Pick against the spread: Patriots -7