NFL Prime-Time Betting Report: The Under is cashing in during prime-time games
Every Thursday night, Sunday night and Monday night, two teams take to the main stage and become the sole focus of the entire NFL. Prime-time games just seem to mean more to the players, coaches and fans as the NFL’s attention centres on one specific game.
We’re digging into the numbers and seeing if we can find some helpful trends to determine which quarterbacks, coaches and teams step up or falter under the bright lights of prime-time.
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NFL prime-time game betting trends
*Records over the last five seasons in NFL prime-time games
| Situation | Record | Win Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Underdogs SU | 82-157-0 | 34.3% |
| Underdogs ATS | 130-106-3 | 55.1% |
| Game total Unders | 146-89-93 | 62.1% |
Underdogs have been a solid cover option in prime-time games over the last five years with a 55.1 per cent success rate. That likely comes down to Thursday Night Football, which tends to be closer scoring games. Teams are usually going off short rest when they play on Thursday, giving players less time to physically recover and coaches less time to game plan.
The bigger takeaway, however, is the totals for prime-time games. More than 60 per cent of prime-time games have gone Under over the last five seasons. That trend has continued in the 2023 season, with the total going Under in 27 of 36 prime-time games.
Outside of Week 13’s shootout between Dallas and Seattle, the average total for Thursday Night Football games since Week 6 (not counting the three Thanksgiving games) was just 40.5 points. There were only two teams in the last two months to score over 23 points on Thursday Night Football, before the Cowboys and Seahawks played, and seven of the 14 teams that played scored less than 20 points.
NFL prime-time coaches
*Records over the last five seasons in NFL prime-time games
| Coach | Prime-Time ATS Record | Win Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Lafleur (Packers) | 17-8-0 | 66.7% |
| Sean McVay (Rams) | 12-7-1 | 63.2% |
| Nick Sirianni (Eagles) | 7-3-1 | 70.0% |
No coach has covered the spread more in prime-time over the last five seasons than Green Bay’s Matt Lafleur. The Packers are covering at nearly a 70 per cent rate in prime-time under Lafleur, although they’ve failed to cover in two of three this season. Green Bay also plays on prime-time in Week 14 for Monday Night Football against the Giants and Week 17 for Sunday Night Football against the Vikings.
We have to give a shoutout to former Carolina Panthers head coach Frank Reich, who was fired on Nov. 27 after coaching just 11 games for the franchise. Reich was 8-1-1 ATS in prime-time games across 5.5 seasons split between the Panthers and Indianapolis Colts. Definitely a stat to remember if Reich ends up back in the NFL in the near future.
NFL prime-time quarterbacks
*Records over the last five seasons in NFL prime-time games
| Quarterback | Passing TDs/Game | Passing Yards/Game | Completion Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 2.4 | 256.7 | 67.0% |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2.3 | 237.3 | 67.0% |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2.0 | 275.6 | 66.0% |
It’s not really a surprise that three of the biggest names in the NFL top the list of prime-time quarterbacks as these are the type of players the NFL wants to showcase in the biggest games. Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes are locks for the Hall of Fame and Josh Allen could even end up in Canton if he leads Buffalo to a Super Bowl victory one day, although that’s probably a bit of a stretch. But keep in mind, Allen actually has a solid 13-6 career record in prime-time games, with 46 touchdown passes.