NFL Popular Picks Week 4: Hot Road Underdog Betting Trend
Once we get to Week 4 in the NFL, things usually begin to settle down a bit. Oddsmakers have a better idea of what teams are all about and who the betting public is going to support moving forward. That results in fewer big line moves as books try to balance their action for each matchup.
And then there are times when a funny trend makes a bunch of noise early in the season that has everything a bit out of whack. Heading into Week 4, visiting teams are not only covering their respective point spreads at a 57.8 per cent clip, but they’re also winning 54 per cent of games outright. Furthermore, road underdogs are hitting at nearly 59 per cent.
So much for home-field advantage. Savy bettors have taken notice with three of our four most popular NFL picks checking in as visiting underdogs.
NFL Favourites and Betting Odds Week 4
Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants
The Seattle Seahawks are at the top of this list for the second straight week as they head into this week’s Monday Night Football matchup against the New York Giants. Seattle improved to 2-1 last week against Carolina, while the Giants took a betting in San Francisco. Now, about 90 per cent of early wagers are backing the Seahawks as 1.5-point underdogs against the Giants, who are already 0-3 against the spread. Look for Seattle to exploit a leaky NYG run defence.
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Bettors can’t get enough of the 3-0 Philadelphia Eagles, who are the only favourite on this week’s list. This line actually opened at Eagles -7.5, jumped to -8.5 for a while and now has settled at -8. At last count, nearly 90 per cent of the money was coming in on Philadelphia. This looks like a mismatch on the ground with the Eagles ranking second overall in rushing yards per game (185.7) against Washington’s 27th-ranked run defence.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
The Saints get Alvin Kamara back from suspension this week but that isn’t swaying bettors in this matchup. Nearly 85 per cent of early bets are backing the Bucs to cover as 3.5-point underdogs in the Big Easy. This one is a little surprising given the Saints sit ninth overall in total defence while Tampa’s attack ranks 25th and averages fewer than 20 points.
Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts
Oddsmakers have the Rams as 1-point road dogs and nearly 80 per cent of the action is backing L.A. This looks like a line that could flip before kickoff and you’d be wise to keep an eye on the Colts’ quarterback situation. Gardner Minshew pulled off an upset win in Baltimore last week, but rookie Anthony Richardson (concussion) could get the call on Sunday after participating fully in Wednesday’s practice.