NFL Odds: Will Miami Dolphins star Tyreek Hill win MVP?
We’re now six weeks into the 2023 NFL season and the MVP conversation is in full swing. As usual, most conversations are focusing on quarterbacks, but there’s one non-QB who has forced his way into the conversation: Miami Dolphins wideout Tyreek Hill.
With Hill on pace for a historic season, could he be the first receiver in NFL history to win league MVP?
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Tyreek Hill
2023 stats: 42 receptions, 814 receiving yards, 6 TDs, 19.6 yards per reception
Sports Interaction MVP odds: +5000
Tyreek Hill is easily the top receiver in the NFL this season. Hill leads the league in receiving yards, receiving TDs, receiving first downs and receiving yards after catch. He’s hauled in a touchdown in five of six games this year and he’s had four games with 157 receiving yards or more, including a season-high 210-yard performance in Week 1. Hill is averaging about 136 yards per game, putting him on pace for over 2,300 yards this season. Keep in mind no player in NFL history has ever recorded 2,000 receiving yards in a single season, something Hill would be on pace the do even without the expanded 17-game season.
The argument for Hill to win NFL MVP is how much more dominant he has been than anyone else at his position. Through six games he has almost 150 more receiving yards than the next closest wideout despite being targeted less than players like Ja’Marr Chase (50 receptions, 556 yards), Puka Nacua (50 rec, 598 yds) and Stefon Diggs (49 rec, 620 yds).
If Hill sets a new single season record by breaking 2,000 receiving yards and he has 200 or more yards than the anyone else in the NFL, how could you vote against him for MVP?
Closest competition
Tua Tagovailoa
2023 stats: 1,876 passing yards, 14 TDs, 5 INTs, 74.7 QBR, 21 rushing yards
Tua Tagovailoa enters Week 7 as a betting co-favourite to win MVP. Tagovailoa is leading a Miami offence that is performing at a historic rate and he leads the NFL in passing yards and passing touchdowns (tied with Kirk Cousins). He’s also the only quarterback to throw for at least three touchdowns in three games this season.
Staying healthy will likely be the most impactful factor in Tagovailoa’s MVP pursuit. He’s dealt with multiple significant injuries over his career, including two serious concussions last season that he said made him contemplate retirement.
Patrick Mahomes
2023 stats: 1,593 passing yards, 11 TDs, 5 INTs, 72.6 QBR, 185 rushing yards
Patrick Mahomes won his second career MVP award last year and he is a co-favourite to repeat in 2023. The Chiefs are off to a slower start than expected, but they’re still tied with Miami for the AFC’s best record at 5-1 and they’ve rolled off five straight dubs. Mahomes is completing 68.3 per cent of his passes for 265.5 yards per game. He ranks sixth in the NFL in total passing yards and tied for fifth in passing touchdowns.
What Mahomes has going for him in the MVP conversation is that he is the best player on a Super Bowl contending team. The biggest drawback could be voter fatigue as Aaron Rodgers (2020, 2021) and Peyton Manning (2008, 2009) are the only players to win back-to-back MVPs in the last 20 years.
Josh Allen
2023 stats: 1,576 passing yards, 13 TDs, 6 INTs, 75.1 QBR, 131 rushing yards (3 rushing TDs)
Josh Allen threw three interceptions in Buffalo’s Week 1 loss against the Jets, but he’s jumped back into the top-five of MVP candidates since then. Allen leads the NFL in completion percentage (71.7 per cent) while he ranks seventh in passing yards and third in passing TDs.
The most impressive performance for Allen this season came in a crucial divisional game against Miami. He threw for 320 yards and four TDs with no interceptions in a massive win for the Bills. Allen set a new single-game career-high in completion percentage (84 per cent) and had a perfect passer rating. His MVP chances could come down to beating Tagovailoa in head-to-head action.
Jalen Hurts
2023 stats: 1,542 passing yards, 7 TDs, 7 INTs, 59.9 QBR, 252 rushing yards (5 rushing TDs)
It would have stung for Jalen Hurts last season as he finished runner-up to Mahomes in MVP voting then lost the Super Bowl to Mahomes and co. Hurts is off to a bit of a slow start this season, but that’s to be expected with a new offensive coordinator in Philadelphia.
Hurts will benefit in MVP voting from being a dual threat in the air and on the ground. He has accounted for 12 touchdowns this year (85.7 per cent of the Eagles’ offensive TDs) and his five rushing TDs is the most of any quarterback. Hurts could have the edge for MVP is he finishes the year as a top-10 quarterback while continuing to do damage on the ground.