The Kansas City Chiefs are two wins away from making history as the first team ever to win three straight Super Bowls. But sorry Swifties, this is no KC love story, I’ve got bad blood for the Chiefs and it’s going to be a cruel summer when they fall short of winning the Super Bowl this year (Taylor Swift puns officially exhausted).

Here’s my top three reasons why you shouldn’t bet the Kansas City Chiefs.

Terrible cover option

Including the playoffs, Kansas City is 16-2 straight up this season. That’s obviously a great number on paper, but it hasn’t helped bettors. The Chiefs were favoured in all but three games this year, which means you weren’t finding much value to bet them on the moneyline.

That brings me to my main point: Kansas City is a terrible cover option and bettors have actually profited more by fading them against the spread. KC is 8-10 ATS overall, but what is even more glaring is their 3-6 ATS mark at Arrowhead Stadium. Anyone who bet Kansas City on the spread in every home game this year actually lost money.

What I’m saying is, it doesn’t pay to bet the Chiefs on the moneyline and you’re not going to win if you bet them on the spread. Stay away from KC.

History is against KC

Maybe you’re more of a big picture bettor and you’re eyeing the two-time defending champion Chiefs on the NFL futures board to win the Super Bowl. That’s a bettor payout than you would get with the Super Bowl favourite Eagles, but it’s still not worth it in my mind for one important reason: history.

The Super Bowl as we know it has been contested since 1967 and in all that time we have never seen a team win three straight championships. Tom Brady and the Pats never did it. Terry Bradshaw and the Steelers never did it. Joe Montana and the 49ers never did it.

Sure, Kansas City obviously could win again this year and prove me wrong, but I’m siding with nearly 60 years of history and statistical data that tells me no team will win three straight Super Bowls.

Give me Bills vs. Birds

So, if not KC than who? I’m banking on a Buffalo vs. Philadelphia Super Bowl this year.

Josh Allen has been the clear-cut best quarterback in the NFL this season. He’s eliminated the narrative that he’s prone to throwing interceptions while remaining an elite dual threat in the air and on the ground. Since Week 10, Allen leads the NFL in EPA (expected points added) per play and he is second in both air yards per attempt and offensive success rate. It’s always felt like Allen would have to slay the dragon that is Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs to win a Super Bowl and I think that’s exactly what he will do on Sunday.

And on the Eagles side you have Saquon Barkley acting as a cheat code and piling up video game statistics. Barkley just put up 205 rushing yards and two TDs last week against the Rams and he’s averaging almost 130 rushing yards per game through the regular season and playoffs. I think Barkley puts the Birds on his back and Philly cruises through Washington into the Super Bowl.