NFL MVP Odds: Bettors Banking on Aaron Rodgers

NFL teams will start reporting to their training camps next week and one of the first teams to report will be the Green Bay Packers because they play in the Hall of Fame Game on Sunday, Aug. 7 against Indianapolis. Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers is a two-time NFL MVP winner and he’s the +350 favourite on Sports Interaction NFL odds to add a third award this year.

NFL 2016 MVP Odds

Aaron Rodgers Welcomes Jordy Nelson Back

Both Rodgers and the Packers had a bit of a disappointing 2015 campaign. Really, the year went south for the team when top receiver Jordy Nelson blew out his knee in the preseason, ruling him out the rest of the year. In 2014, Nelson was a first-team All-Pro after posting career highs in receptions (98) and yards (1,519). Green Bay slipped to a 10-6 record and second in the NFC North in 2015 after winning the division the previous four years.

Without Nelson, Rodgers had his worst season since taking over from Brett Favre as the full-time starter in 2008. Rodgers had career lows (not counting an injury-shortened 2013 season) of 60.7 percent completions, 3,821 yards and a rating of 92.7.  By comparison, Rodgers had a rating of 112.2 with 4,381 passing yards the year before. Rodgers won his NFL MVPs in 2011 and 2014. The record for MVP Awards is four by now-retired Peyton Manning.

Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who has yet to win an MVP Award, Carolina quarterback Cam Newton, the reigning league MVP, and Denver linebacker Von Miller are all at +500 on . I’m frankly stunned that Miller has such short odds.  Last week, Miller signed a six-year, $114.5 million deadline deal with the Broncos that includes $70 million guaranteed. That made Miller the highest-paid non-quarterback in NFL history based on guaranteed money, but the last defensive player to win the MVP was Lawrence Taylor in 1986.

Roethlisberger’s Steelers might have the NFL’s top offense this year, but I worry about Big Ben staying healthy. He has played all 16 regular-season games only three times in his career. Newton was very deserving of last year’s MVP Award, getting 48 of the 50 first-place votes. He became the first black quarterback to win The Associated Press MVP award outright; the Titans’ Steve McNair shared it with Manning in the 2004 season. Newton came up just short of becoming the second player ever to win a Heisman Trophy, college football national title (he did those two at Auburn in 2010), NFL MVP and a Super Bowl. The one guy to do all that in a career was Hall of Fame running back Marcus Allen.

The next batch of players at +800 on NFL odds are Vikings running back Adrian Peterson, Colts quarterback Andrew Luck, Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer, Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson and Patriots quarterback Tom Brady. It’s also surprising that Brady has such short odds considering he’s suspended the first four games of 2016.

NFL MVP Prediction

Recent history says a quarterback will win this as one has three straight years and eight of the past nine. My pick on the NFL MVP odds board is Wilson. He closed last regular season with 24 touchdown passes to just one interception over his final seven games and led the NFL with a passer rating of 110.1 overall.