NFL Conference Championship Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread

Payton Matthews | Updated Jan 18, 2021

buccaneers packers brady rodgers

The NFL is down to its final four this Sunday on conference championship weekend, with the two winners qualifying for Super Bowl 55 in Tampa on February 7th.

Here’s a quick look at the AFC and NFC title games with Sports Interaction’s NFL odds. Check back for individual game previews.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers

It’s a 3:05 p.m. ET kickoff Sunday from what will be a very chilly Lambeau Field in Green Bay, although as of now there is little chance of snow during the game. The Packers’ Aaron Rodgers will go down as one of the great quarterbacks in league history, but this is the first time he will host an NFC Championship Game. Rodgers is 1-3 in his previous four away NFC title games, including a blowout loss at the San Francisco 49ers last season.

Playing in a conference championship game is nothing new for the Bucs’ Tom Brady as it’s his 14th such game but of course first in the NFC. He was 9-4 in the previous 13 while with the New England Patriots. Tampa Bay looks to become the first team to play a Super Bowl on its home field. The Bucs welcomed the Packers in Week 6 and blew them out 38-10 in a shocking result. That was easily Green Bay’s (and Rodgers’) worst game of the season and the Bucs’ best effort. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven in this series.

Point spread: Packers -3.5

Pick ATS: Green Bay (alternate line of -2.5)

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

A 6:40 p.m. ET kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium. The defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs are in their third straight AFC Championship Game, but the clear storyline all week will be the status of superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes. He left Sunday’s 22-17 win over the Cleveland Browns in the third quarter with a possible concussion and wasn’t able to return. Clearly, oddsmakers think he will play here because if it were to be veteran journeyman Chad Henne making his first playoff start, the Bills would be favoured.

Buffalo is on the longest winning streak in the NFL at eight in a row following Saturday’s 17-3 victory over Baltimore. A 101-yard interception return for a touchdown late in the third quarter completely changed that game. The Bills hosted the Chiefs on a Monday night in Week 6 and lost 26-17. Kansas City gashed Buffalo to the tune of 245 yards rushing – rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire had 161 of those yards but is in question here as he hasn’t played since Week 15 due to injury. Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings.

Point spread: Chiefs -3

Pick ATS: Kansas City if Mahomes plays (alternate line of -2.5)