NFL Betting Week 10 preview: Hot bets and moving odds

All odds current as of noon ET, Nov. 7. 

Trying to find value with the worst teams in the NFL is obviously a risky play because so much can go wrong. The winless Jacksonville Jaguars have been set as at least 9.5-point underdogs five times this year and still managed to cover just one pointspread. They rank last in points allowed and last in points scored. Tampa Bay hasn’t been much better, covering two pointspreads in their first eight losses. Then you have Minnesota, St. Louis, the New York Giants, and a bunch of underachieving clubs in that tier just above the basement.

There’s no question these teams are bad, but at this point in the season, sharp bettors are starting to jump on these struggling squads when they’re seeing juicy numbers. The Jaguars opened as big 13.5-point underdogs at Tennessee but are now just 12-point pups. The Rams were 11.5-point underdogs at Indianapolis before some sharp action dropped that line to +9. Tampa Bay has moved from 3-point home underdogs off that key number to +2.5 against Miami in the Monday Nighter. So far, these basement dwellers haven’t done much to help bettors but is this the week that changes? We’ll soon find out.

Other odds on the move

The under is normally a popular play in Thursday night games. The theory goes that with less time to prepare, offenses struggle more than defenses on short weeks. However, this week it’s a different story with the Vikings hosting the Redskins. Sports Interaction opened the Thursday night total at 48.5 and it’s moved to 50.5. That’s what happens when you have the No. 30 and the No. 31 defenses facing off.

We didn’t post a spread for Green Bay’s game until after word came out about Aaron Rodgers’ injury, so the Packers are holding as 1.5-point favorites at home to Philadelphia. That said, the total has dropped from 48 at the open to 46.5.

Bettors expect fireworks with the stumbling New Orleans Saints heading back home for a date with the Cowboys. Each of these teams average more than 27 points per game and New Orleans has played over the total in three straight games.

Week 10’s most popular bets

About 84 percent of the public likes Washington as a 1.5-point favorite at Minnesota in this week’s Thursday night game.

The Denver Broncos return off their bye week and bettors were waiting for them. As of noon Thursday, 89 percent of Sports Interaction’s bets were on the Broncos as 7-point road favorites as they visit San Diego.

The San Francisco 49ers are seeing 79 percent of our action as they get set to host the upstart Carolina Panthers. San Francisco is currently a 6.5-point favorite.