Jaguars vs. Texans Point Spread: NFL Week 10 Odds, Prediction
These teams surely figured that this matchup would have division-title ramifications, but right now they look relegated to wild-card hopes at most with the Indianapolis Colts leading the AFC South at 7-2. On the bright side for Houston, it has won three of its last five games. Jacksonville ended a two-game skid by beating Las Vegas in overtime last weekend.
The Texans are dominating the head-to-head series 31-16 all-time. They are 12-3 in the last 15 meetings, 18-5 in the latest 23, and 23-7 in the last 30.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The Jaguars are 4-4 ATS this season, while the Texans are 3-5. Head-to-head, Jacksonville is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six encounters. Meanwhile, the Under is 2-1 in Jacksonville’s last three games and 6-2 in Houston’s eight games this season. It is also 7-1 in the previous eight head-to-heads in Houston.
In addition to the more traditional NHL betting odds, the first-quarter Over/Under is 6.5, and the first-half Over/Under is 18.5. On the prop-betting front, Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is +160 to throw more than 1.5 touchdown passes. Davis Mills of the Texans is +140 to do the same.
Jacksonville Jaguars
This is not going to be an easy matchup for Jacksonville’s offence. Houston’s defence is fantastic by all metrics. It is No. 1 overall in the NFL, No. 1 in scoring (15.1 points per game allowed), No. 4 against the pass, No. 6 against the run (89.9 yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry), and No. 4 in turnovers forced. The Jaguars are also without rookie receiver Travis Hunter, who is on injured reserve due to a knee injury. Fellow WR Brian Thomas Jr. is questionable because of a sprained ankle.
Lawrence and his offensive line have to step up on Sunday. The former No. 1 overall pick has only three more touchdown passes than interceptions in 2025 (nine to six). He has been sacked a ridiculous 15 times in the past three contests.
Houston Texans
CJ Stroud remains in the NFL’s concussion protocol after leaving last week’s 18-15 loss to Denver in the second quarter. Stroud is currently listed as questionable for Sunday, but it is expected that he will be sidelined. If that’s the case, Mills will make his third appearance and first start of the season. The 27-year-old has played in 40 games throughout his pro career, completing 62.3% of his passes with 35 touchdowns and 25 interceptions.
This should be a favorable matchup for Mills and top receiver Nico Collins. Jacksonville’s defence is No. 27 league-wide against the pass (249.3 yards per game allowed), and it is dead last in the entire NFL with only 10 sacks.
NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Jaguars vs. Texans?
The Jaguars may not have enjoyed much success in the history of this matchup, but they won the first meeting of this season 17-10 at home in Week 3. And that was when Stroud was on the field for Houston. Stroud presumably won’t play this time around, and the downgrade to Mills is quite steep. Jacksonville has been the better team so far this year, a trend that should continue on Sunday. Let’s go with Jaguars 20, Texans 17.
JAC
HOU