How to Bet NFL Week 5: Can you bank on a Sam Darnold revenge game in London?
The NFL International Series is headed to the home stadium of Premier League club Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday morning, with Sam Darnold and the Minnesota Vikings facing his former New York Jets squad led by Aaron Rodgers.
Along with the Vikings vs. Jets matchup, let’s go over the biggest games in Week 5 and look for some betting nuggets.
Thursday Night Football: Buccaneers at Falcons
I think the Bucs win this game, but I’m high on Bijan Robinson’s receiving yards for one key reason: Tampa has struggled to contain running backs in the air this year, allowing the second-most running back receiving yards in the NFL (243).
Robinson has picked up four or more receptions in three of four games this season and he’s finished with 25 or more receiving yards in those three contests. He should cruise past 25.5 receiving yards on Thursday Night Football.
Week 5 pick: Bijan Robinson Over 25.5 receiving yards
Jets at Vikings
Sam Darnold is tied with Aaron Rodgers as +175 co-favourites to win Comeback Player of the Year, but playing against his former team should be all the motivation he needs in London.
Darnold is having a remarkable year, averaging 233 passing yards per game with a 68.9 completion percentage and he leads the league with 11 passing touchdowns. The former Jet has thrown multiple TDs every game this season, including seven over the last two weeks combined. Sign me up for a Darnold revenge game overseas.
Week 5 pick: Sam Darnold Over 1.5 passing TDs
Ravens at Bengals
Baltimore has arguably been the most impressive team in the NFL over the first month of the season and Cincinnati has arguably been the most disappointing. One thing you can bank on with these AFC North rivals is a high scoring affair. The Bengals have finished over the total of 49.5 in each of the last three weeks, with an average total score of 60 points. The Ravens have also put points on the board and haven’t posted a total under 45 this season.
Another reason to expect a high scoring game is the fact you’re talking about two high-level offences and two average defences. Baltimore and Cincinnati each rank in the top-six of the NFL in expected offensive points and they also each rank near the middle-of-the-pack defensively. Just look to last year when both games between the teams finished above 50 points.
Week 5 pick: Game total Over 49.5
Sunday Night Football: Cowboys at Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers lead the AFC North with a 3-1 record and their average of 18.8 points per game isn’t the reason. Linebacker T.J. Watt anchors an elite defensive unit that ranks top-10 in the NFL in average total yards allowed (261.3), passing yards allowed (174.5) and rushing yards allowed (86.8) per game.
Watt, the 2021 Defensive Player of the Year, has had a slow start by his standards, so now’s the time to snag him on the NFL futures board. He hasn’t gone two straight games without at least 0.5 sacks since 2018 and he’s led the league in sacks three times, including an NFL single-season record of 22.5 in 2021.
Week 5 pick: T.J. Watt wins Defensive Player of the Year
Monday Night Football: Saints at Chiefs
The Chiefs are one of only two remaining undefeated teams, but something hasn’t looked right in KC and they’ve been on the receiving end of a lot of beneficial calls. The Saints have lost their last two games, but each came by less than four points and they still boast a league-high plus-57 point differential.
The Chiefs haven’t won a game by more than one possession yet this season and they’re fairly banged up on offence with injuries to Rashee Rice, Hollywood Brown and Isaiah Pacheco. I wouldn’t be shocked with an outright New Orleans win on Monday, so the fact they are getting 5.5 points is a no-brainer to take the Black and Gold to at least cover.
Week 5 pick: Saints +5.5
