Houston Texans NFL Prediction: 2021 Season Betting Odds and Preview
The last year has been a nightmare for Houston Texans fans and it doesn’t look like it’s going to get any better. Houston finished just 4-12 last season and that was with Deshaun Watson at quarterback. With Watson’s trade demand and legal issues, don’t expect to see him in a Texans uniform ever again. Are the Texans really going to be as bad in 2021 as most experts are predicting?
Veteran Additions
QB Tyrod Taylor, QB Ryan Finley, RB Phillip Lindsay, RB Mark Ingram, RB Rex Burkhead, WR Anthony Miller, WR Chris Conley, WR Alex Erickson, WR Chris Moore, TE Ryan Izzo, OT Marcus Cannon, G Lane Taylor, G Cole Toner, C Justin Britt, DE Shaq Lawson, DT DeMarcus Walker, DT Maliek Collins, DT Vincent Taylor, DT Jaleel Johnson, OLB Jordan Jenkins, LB Christian Kirksey, LB Kevin Pierre-Louis, LB Kamu Grugier-Hill, LB Neville Hewitt, LB Joe Thomas, LB Tae Davis, CB Terrance Mitchell, S Desmond King, S Terrence Brooks, P Cameron Johnston, KR Andre Roberts
Notable Draft Picks
QB Davis Mills, WR Nico Collins, TE Brevin Jordan
Offseason Losses
RB Duke Johnson, WR Will Fuller, WR Randall Cobb, G Zach Fulton, C Nick Martin, DT J.J. Watt, DT Carlos Watkins, OLB Brennan Scarlett, CB Gareon Conley, P Bryan Anger
Houston Texans Acquisitions and Moves
Watson is still technically on the roster, but it seems unlikely he’ll ever play in Houston again. Tyrod Taylor will start Week 1 after signing with the Texans in the offseason. Taylor is an average quarterback at best, but that’s the plan in Houston as the Texans shift to a more run-focused game.
That run-focused gameplan will be led by new head coach David Culley. Culley has made it clear that his strategy is to focus on a physical running game built around running backs Mark Ingram II, Phillip Lindsay and David Johnson. That plan was endorsed by new GM Nick Caserio, who comes to Texas after 20 years of success in the New England Patriots organization.
The personnel changes continue with Lovie Smith taking over as defensive coordinator. Smith has already had a positive impact on the defence. Last year, Houston had nine total takeaways in the regular season. In three preseason games since Smith took over, they’ve already recorded 10 takeaways.
The biggest defensive loss was defensive end J.J. Watt, who is now in Arizona. Houston’s biggest pickup was veteran defensive tackle Maliek Collins, although he’s coming off a down year with the Raiders.
Houston Texans 2021 NFL Schedule
The Texans come into the season with the 15th most difficult schedule based on their opponents’ combined 2020 record. It’s actually a break for Houston, as they were slated to have the 10th most difficult schedule if the season hadn’t been extended to 17 games.
One of Houston’s most winnable games is Week 1 at home against the Jaguars. They’ll need to capitalize on that game, as it doesn’t get much easier with road games in Cleveland, Buffalo and San Francisco still to come.
Week 1: Sunday, Sept. 12 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m
Week 2: Sunday, Sept. 19 @ Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m.
Week 3: Thursday, Sept. 23 vs. Carolina Panthers, 8:20 p.m.
Week 4: Sunday, October 3 @ Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m.
Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 10 vs. New England Patriots, 1 p.m.
Week 6: Sunday, Oct. 17 @ Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m.
Week 7: Sunday, Oct. 24 @ Arizona Cardinals, 4:25 p.m.
Week 8: Sunday, Oct. 31 vs. Los Angeles Rams, 1 p.m.
Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 7 @ Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
Week 10: BYE
Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 21 @ Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m.
Week 12: Sunday, Nov. 28 vs. New York Jets, 1 p.m.
Week 13: Sunday, December 5 vs. Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m.
Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 12 vs. Seattle Seahawks, 1 p.m.
Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 19 @ Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m.
Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 26 vs. Los Angeles Chargers, 1 p.m.
Week 17: Sunday, Jan. 2 @ San Francisco 49ers, 4:05 p.m.
Week 18: Sunday, Jan. 9 vs. Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m.
Houston Texans NFL Betting Odds
The Texans have the lowest regular season win total (4.5 games) and the worst playoff odds (+704). This team only managed four wins with Watson, the passing yards leader last year, so I’m taking the Under 4.5 at -190. Unsurprisingly, Houston has the worst odds to win the AFC South at +2696, trailing Jacksonville (+955), Indianapolis (+158) and Tennessee (-139).
If you like to throw your money away, the Texans are dead last to win the AFC conference outright at +10,700 and they’re +20,500 to win the Super Bowl.
Houston Texans 2021 Season Prediction
There is very little optimism in Houston, and for good reason. Even with one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL last year, the Texans still barely made it to four wins. I could legitimately see Houston being the first team to record an 0-17 season, but I’d like to think they can squeak out a win somewhere. Take the Texans to finish last in the NFL with a 1-16 record.