Green Bay Road Favorites at Atlanta

Atlanta is struggling to find the form that made the Falcons No 1 seed in the NFC last year. Can they shock Green Bay in the Georgia Dome? Frank Doyle reports.

The last time Green Bay visited Atlanta, Aaron Rodgers destroyed the Falcons. Destroyed them. Everybody knew that Rodgers was good, but 10-6 Green Bay was a +2.5 underdog at the 13-3 Falcons.

Green Bay routed Atlanta in the Divisional Playoff. Rodgers connected on 31 of 36 passes for 366 yards and three touchdowns. He was imperious, Green Bay won 48-21, and neither has looked back since.

It’s clear now, four weeks into the season, that Atlanta is still carrying the scars from that beating. Atlanta was a popular preseason pick to win the NFC this year but that’s all changed now. The Falcons are 2-2 straight up, 1-3-0 against the spread and don’t look at all good.

Green Bay, by contrast, are flying high. The Packers went on to win the Super Bowl after beating Atlanta in the Georgia Dome and have continued winning with ease this season, all orchestrated by the MVP play of Rodgers at quarterback. The Packers are 4-0 straight up and 3-1-0 against the NFL betting spread. They’re averaging 37 points per game, and are covering the spread by an average of 4.6 points per game.

Green Bay is a -6.5 point favorite at the Georgia Dome, and the total is set at 54, the highest over/under of the weekend. This is a reflection of Green Bay’s weak link, which is its defense. The Packers are giving up 24.3 points per game, which puts them in the bottom half of the league. They’re ranked second last in the league in pass defense.

The Falcons are built to run, but they have to take to the air against the Packers. While the Packers’ pass defense is porous their run defense is much more sturdy – ranked second in the league, in fact, and stuffing Turner at the line was one of the keys to Green Bay’s victory at Atlanta in the playoffs. Along with Rodgers’ Olympian performance, of course.

So the Falcons have to challenge Green Bay in the air, even if they don’t want to. Matt Ryan can throw and they didn’t draft Julio Jones just to ride the pine. The problem is that Matty Ice has to go shot for shot with Rodgers, drive for drive, and make sure that the Falcons are the last men starting when the clock hits the zeros. Hence the high total, and the prospect of another Sunday night treat in store.