Falcons vs. Eagles Point Spread: NFL Divisional Playoffs Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews | Updated Jan 12, 2018

It’s the No. 6 seed Atlanta Falcons visiting the top-seeded Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC’s Divisional Round game on Saturday afternoon. One would expect the Eagles to be favoured, but history has been made with the opening spread.

Atlanta
10-6
AT
January 13, 2018, 4:35 PM ET
Lincoln Financial Field
Pointspread -3 -105
Moneyline -145
Over / Under o +40.5

63%

Betting Action

37%

Pointspread +3 -115
Moneyline +125
Over / Under u +40.5

63%

Betting Action

37%

Philadelphia is the first No. 1 seed in NFL playoff history to be an underdog against a No. 6. It’s also the first time since 1970 a top seed has been an underdog in the divisional round. Shoot, since 1990 No. 1 seeds had been less than 3-point favorites just four times in their opening playoff game. The Eagles are also +500 long shots to win the NFC.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Why is Philly getting no respect? Because they lost superstar quarterback Carson Wentz to a season-ending ACL injury in Week 14 at the L.A. Rams, and backup Nick Foles didn’t look sharp in the final two regular-season games.

This is the first time the Falcons and Eagles have met in the playoffs since following the 2004 season. Philly won that 27-10 at home to advance to the second Super Bowl in team history – it would lose to New England.

These two teams last met in Week 10 of the 2016 season at Lincoln Financial Field, a 24-15 Philadelphia victory. Wentz threw for 231 yards. Ryan Mathews was the offensive star for the Eagles with 109 yards rushing and two touchdowns, but he’s out of the NFL now. The Falcons’ Matt Ryan was 18-for-33 for 267 yards and a 76-yard TD pass to Taylor Gabriel. Julio Jones caught 10 passes for 135 yards. Atlanta had won the previous three meetings.

Early betting trends at Sports Interaction show the Falcons taking a majority lean on the spread. The Falcons have covered five of their past seven overall vs. teams with a winning record. The Eagles were 5-3 ATS at home this season.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons (11-6 SU, 8-9 ATS) were 6.5-point underdogs last Saturday night at the NFC West champion Los Angeles Rams and won 26-13 in easily one of the team’s best efforts of the season.  That looked much more like the club that reached Super Bowl LI. Ryan threw for 218 yards and a touchdown. Jones caught that TD among his nine grabs for 94 yards. The Falcons also rushed for 124 yards and held the ball for nearly 38 minutes, keeping it from the NFL’s No. 1 offence. The Falcons were the beneficiaries of two Rams special teams turnovers and turned those into 10 points. Not something you can count on weekly. This will be a homecoming game for Ryan as he grew up 32 miles from Philadelphia. He is 1-3 in his NFL career at Lincoln Financial Field.

Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia (13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS) was on the bye last week. If Wentz were healthy, it would likely be a nearly a touchdown favorite here. Foles played well in a Week 15 win at the Giants with four touchdown passes but threw for just 163 yards with a pick in a Week 16 close victory over Oakland and then only 39 yards in limited time in a Week 17 meaningless 6-0 loss to Dallas. That was Philly’s only home defeat. The Falcons will be seeing one of the best defences in the NFL as Philadelphia ranked fourth in yards allowed, first against the run and fourth in scoring (18.4 ppg). This writer believes oddsmakers are overreacting a bit here to Atlanta’s win and Foles’ last two games. Buy this spread up to 3.5 to be safe and take Philly.

Falcons vs. Eagles Prediction

SportsInteraction