Dolphins vs. Patriots Point Spread: NFL Predictions, Week 17 Odds

Jeremy Perry | Updated Dec 24, 2019

patriots vs dolphins

The path to the Super Bowl will go through Baltimore this season, but the Patriots could still claim a bye and a home playoff game with a win over Miami.

Miami
5-11
AT
December 29, 2019, 1:00 PM ET
Gillette Stadium
Pointspread +17 -115
Moneyline +822
Over / Under o +46

68%

Betting Action

32%

Pointspread -17 -105
Moneyline -1121
Over / Under u +46

68%

Betting Action

32%

The New England Patriots have navigated their way through the highs and lows of a difficult season. After a 16-week grind, Tom Brady and company is in a familiar situation heading into Week 17 as they can lock up the No. 2 seed in the AFC and a first-round playoff bye with a win over the Miami Dolphins on Sunday.

The Dolphins head into the final week of the season looking to play spoiler after overachieving with a 4-11 record through their first 15 games. They’ve been surprisingly competitive in the second half of the season. Can they throw a wrench in the Pats plans here?

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Dolphins have actually exceeded expectations by registering four wins in a season in which a number of experts wondered if they would go 0-16. Miami is an impressive 8-7 against the spread this season. While they started the year 0-7, they are 4-4 in their last eight games.

New England is 8-6-1 against the spread heading in to Week 17. The Patriots are 7-0 both straight up and ATS in their last seven home games against Miami. New England is also 14-1 straight up in its last 15 home games against AFC opponents. The Patriots are 6-1 at Gillette Stadium this season.

Miami Dolphins

There is plenty for Miami to build on after an impressive year in which they reached four wins. Despite unloading a ton of talent before and during the year, the Dolphins have a better record than three other NFL teams.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has refused to slow down with 3,209 passing yards and 19 touchdowns compared to 13 interceptions. His 62.3 QBR is ninth-best in the NFL, which is quite impressive. He also somehow leads Miami with 228 rushing yards. However, the lack of a consistent run game following Kenyan Drake’s exit will put the Dolphins in a tough position this week.

The Patriots have one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. Wind and potential snow conditions could make it that much more difficult for Fitzpatrick to move the football through the air against that defense this weekend. The Dolphins failed to score a single point in their 43-0 loss to New England in Week 2 but the teams are very different at this point.

New England Patriots

For New England, it’s all about taking care of business as quickly and efficiently as possible this week. The Patriots need to secure the win and No. 2 seed, then make sure that they rest as many starters as possible to start getting them healthy. As banged up as they have been this season, Brady and company continue to find ways to get it done.

In last week’s division clinching win over the Buffalo Bills, the New England offense went for over 400 total yards and 24 points. Brady threw for 271 yards and a touchdown while the running game finally got going. The running backs combined for 143 rushing yards and an additional score.

The Dolphins run defense has been a real sieve this season, giving up 135.0 yards per game (27th in the NFL) but they’ve been better of late, giving up just 103.0 over their last three contests.

Who Will Win Dolphins vs. Patriots?

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